Citrus Bowl Picks 12/31: Michigan Wolverines @ Texas Longhorns

Michigan Wolverines

@

Texas Longhorns

by Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Michigan and Texas close out 2025 with a heavyweight bowl meeting in Orlando — a matchup that pits Michigan’s run-first identity and shaken program against Texas’ explosive offense and SEC résumé. With Texas listed at-7.0 and the total at 48.5 on DraftKings, this game is shaping up as a classic favorites-vs-underdogs betting fight.

Team Analysis

Michigan

• Season overview and recent form: Michigan finished the regular season 9-3 and enters the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl ranked around the high teens, built on a top-25 defense and a dominant ground game that averages roughly 213.2 rushing YPG.
• Context and turmoil: The program underwent major upheaval in December with the firing of head coach Sherrone Moore and the appointment of Biff Poggi as interim coach, creating obvious roster and morale uncertainty heading into the bowl.
• Offensive profile: Freshman QB Bryce Underwood and workhorse backs like Jordan Marshall anchor a run-heavy attack that leans on ball control and play-action when available.

Texas

• Season overview and recent form: Texas also finished 9-3, closing the regular season with a signature win over Texas A&M and carrying strong momentum under coach Steve Sarkisian.
• Offensive profile: The Longhorns feature dynamic QB play — recent games highlight a dual-threat passing game that can stretch defenses vertically while protecting the ball (Texas ranks among the lowest in fumbles lost).
• Recent form: Texas won six of its last seven regular-season games and showed an ability to beat top opponents down the stretch, a credit to both scheme and roster depth.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This is only the third meeting between the programs; Texas won the 2005 Rose Bowl (38-37) and also beat Michigan in 2024, giving Texas a 2-0 edge entering this bowl.
• Important player matchups:

– Michigan rush offense vs. Texas front seven — Michigan’s multi-back rotation and 213.2 YPG on the ground will test Texas’ edge-setting run defense. – Texas passing game vs. Michigan secondary — Texas’ ability to create big plays through the air will force Michigan to cover on the back end, and opt-outs/injuries could tip the balance.

• Key injuries and news: Michigan has reported multiple opt-outs and injuries with interim coach Poggi noting a significant number (reports have ranged as high as a dozen-plus players unavailable), while Texas has officially lost several defensive players to NFL draft opt-outs.
• Home/away performance: Neutral-site bowl in Orlando neutralizes travel edge, but Texas projects as the more comfortable and intact unit given fewer midseason upheavals.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: Market shows Texas around -7 to -8.5 across books, with the public leaning toward Texas; DraftKings lists Texas -7.0 specifically and the line has been consistent with other markets.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The number at 48.5 factors Texas’ vertical passing attack and Michigan’s efficient rushing attack; however, Michigan’s coaching upheaval plus opt-outs make a lower-tempo, mistake-prone game likelier — lean to the under if Michigan’s offense is conservative.
• Best value opportunities:

– If you’re risk-averse: Take Texas -7 at current prices — the Longhorns have more remaining firepower and fewer roster defections. – Aggressive contrarian play: Michigan +7 if you find the line at -7.5 or more and the market confirms several Michigan starters are inactive — the Wolverines’ defensive pedigree can keep it close in a low scoring game.

• Prediction: Given opt-outs on both sides but greater relative disruption in the Michigan program, plus Texas’ recent marquee wins, lean to Texas -7 and under 48.5 as the sensible two-leg approach for sharps — final score projection Texas 24, Michigan 14.

Key Injury Statuses

• Michigan: Interim staff has reported roughly 12–15 players will not suit up due to a mix of injuries and opt-outs, creating uncertainty at multiple starting positions.
• Texas: Several defensive players — including linebackers and safeties — have officially opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, thinning depth on the Longhorns’ front seven and secondary.
• Monitor late-week practice reports and official travel rosters — bowl availability updates can and will swing lines; check team releases and sportsbook injury feeds for last-minute changes.

• Final pick and closing paragraph mentioning Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system:

– Final pick: Texas -7 (primary), with under 48.5 as the secondary play; consider Michigan +7 as a live-money hedge if late scratches favor the Wolverines. – Closing: Using Wannamakeabet’s points-based system — which weights roster stability, recent form, matchup edges and injury volatility — Texas rates higher by enough points to justify the -7 line while the total’s composite score points toward a controlled, lower-scoring game; treat this as a favorites-favored, low-variance bowl wager rather than a high-upside upside play.