Birmingham Bowl picks 12/29: Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State

by Liam Bailor

Georgia Southern and Appalachian State continue the 2025 bowl slate in a rivalry rematch at the Birmingham Bowl — a game that looks like a classic Sun Belt grudge match with key matchup angles on both sides. The market currently lists Appalachian State +8.5 with a total of 59.5, and both teams bring contrasting strengths and late-season narratives into Protective Stadium.

Team Analysis

Georgia Southern

• Season overview and recent form

– Georgia Southern (6-6) finished the regular season with streaky form but entered bowl season having won 3 of 4 and clinched eligibility behind a physical run game and an improving passing attack. – QB JC French IV paced the offense with big-play passing late in the year (a 352-yard performance in Boone on Nov. 6), showing the ability to push the ball downfield. – RB Jalen White (and rotational backs including OJ Arnold) have provided the power running backbone; White posted strong season totals and multiple multi-TD games.

Appalachian State

• Season overview and recent form

– Appalachian State (5-7) limped into the bowl slate but this is a rare bowl spot earned by availability; App State lost five of six late in the season yet dropped several games by narrow margins. – The Mountaineers still have playmakers like Kaedin Robinson and a committee rushing attack; the offense can score quickly but consistency and turnover issues have been a problem. – QB rotation and transfer movement created uncertainty late in the year, which has impacted offensive rhythm.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history

– These two Sun Belt rivals split recent meetings but Georgia Southern won the Nov. 6, 2025 regular-season meeting 25-23 in Boone — a close, decisive game that Georgia Southern controlled for long stretches. – The rivalry has swung both ways across the past three seasons; expect familiarity to shrink the margin for surprises.

• Important player matchups

– JC French IV vs. App State secondary: French’s ability to stretch the field (season-high passing outputs late in the year) will test Appalachian State’s defensive backs. – Georgia Southern run game (Jalen White / OJ Arnold) vs. App State front seven: controlling the line of scrimmage will decide clock management and play-calling. – Kaedin Robinson and App State WR room vs. Georgia Southern DBs: matchup speed and contested-catch ability could tilt possessions in quick-strike scenarios.

• Key Injuries and news

– Several players on both rosters are listed as questionable heading into the bowl; Georgia Southern has multiple questionables in the defensive front and skill positions while Appalachian State has turnover/portal uncertainty and noted absences at RB (Kanye Roberts listed out with a knee injury earlier in December). – Coaching and roster turnover (transfers, portal moves) have been a storyline for App State down the stretch, increasing variance.

• Home/away performance

– Game is at a neutral site — Protective Stadium in Birmingham — but Georgia Southern is listed as the visiting team while Appalachian State carries the “home” designation; neutral-site dynamics favor whoever controls the trenches and limiting turnovers.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis

– Market lists Appalachian State +8.5 with Georgia Southern favored; that line implies bettors/market expect Georgia Southern to be the better team by more than a touchdown. Consensus lines from major outlets mirror that spread and total (59.5). – Look for late line movement: App State’s late-season struggles and portal chatter have suppressed public confidence, but their close losses indicate a small variance upside for the underdog.

• Total (over/under) analysis

– The set at 59.5 reflects two teams that can move the ball but also have defensive inconsistencies — Georgia Southern has given up hefty yardage totals while App State’s offense has been boom-or-bust. Trend data suggests both teams have been involved in high-variance scoring affairs, making the total vulnerable to the over if turnovers are minimal.

• Best value opportunities

– If you believe App State’s late-season collapses mask a team that’s a one-score swing from covering, taking Appalachian State +8.5 is solid value — you get margin and possess upside in a rivalry reset. Historical tight margins between these programs support that lean. – If you’re targeting player markets, back JC French passing props if App State is thin at cornerback; conversely, if OJ Arnold is active, RB rushing props for Georgia Southern are attractive. Monitor final injury reports.

• Prediction

– This looks like a close, rivalry chess match where bowl motivation and depth decide the fourth quarter. With App State getting 8.5 and Georgia Southern’s defensive season-long susceptibility, my lean is to the dog: Appalachian State +8.5. Expect a competitive game that likely stays near the total; play the spread and key player props rather than the O/U unless injuries clarify otherwise.

Key Injury Statuses

• Georgia Southern

– Multiple questionables on the Eagles’ depth chart — including RB OJ Arnold (questionable previously), DL/linebacker concerns and a handful of skill-position questionables that could alter rotation. Monitor final travel report.

• Appalachian State

– Kanye Roberts was listed out with a knee injury earlier in December; App State also had several players flagged questionable and transfer/portal departures that cloud availability for the bowl. Check App State’s final release for inactives.

• Final pick and closing

– Final pick: Appalachian State +8.5 (play this spread; hammer player props around JC French and the Georgia Southern run game if active). Use a two-unit allocation on the spread and one unit across correlated player props per Wannamakeabet’s grading approach.

Wannamakeabet’s points-based system favors value where market perception mismatches recent narrow-loss variance — that’s why this Birmingham Bowl is a fade of the chalk and a lean into the underdog getting points.