GameAbove Bowl picks 12/26: Central Michigan @ Northwestern

Central Michigan Chippewas

@

Northwestern Wildcats

By Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Central Michigan and Northwestern close the 2025 bowl slate with a Midwest mismatch at Ford Field — a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on Dec. 26 where the Wildcats open as double-digit favorites and the market is pricing this as a low-scoring, defensive grind.

Team Analysis

Central Michigan

• Season overview and recent form

– Record: 7-5; finished tied for fifth in the MAC and clinched bowl eligibility under first‑year head coach Matt Drinkall. – The Chippewas lean on a defense-first identity — their season has been defined by takeaway production (plus‑8 turnover margin) and limiting foes in wins to 20 points or fewer. – Offensively CMU is balanced but not explosive: Joe Labas has managed the game, with Langston Lewis and a committee of rushers supplying chunks rather than sustained vertical firepower. Offensive line issues have shown up in pass protection grades.

Northwestern

• Season overview and recent form

– Record: 6-6 under head coach David Braun; history of stout Big Ten defenses again this season (NU allowed ~20.9 PPG, a top‑half national defensive unit). – Northwestern’s offense has been a work in progress but the running game (led by Caleb Komolafe) has been reliable; the QB position (Preston Stone) has flashed and sputtered, producing efficiency at times and turnovers at others. – The Wildcats absorb a tough schedule and come into Detroit with experience against high‑level opponents — a factor oddsmakers lean on when installing a sizable spread.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head‑to‑head history

– These programs have only met once previously: Northwestern won 30‑25 in 2010, a close game that still serves as the lone data point between the schools.

• Important player matchups

– Northwestern run game (Caleb Komolafe) vs. Central Michigan front seven — Komolafe’s ability to control the line of scrimmage will force CMU to play downhill and rely on long drives rather than turnovers. – CMU’s turnover creators (Jordan Kwiatkowski, Dakota Cochran) vs. NU’s ball security — CMU’s plus‑8 margin is real and can tilt a one‑score game into an upset if Northwestern coughs the ball.

• Key injuries and news

– Northwestern lost veteran back Cam Porter for the season early, elevating Komolafe and committee duty for touches; Porter’s absence changes NU’s depth profile but not its top-end talent. – Central Michigan’s injury list is light entering the bowl; the Chippewas are preparing with the core unit that earned seven wins.

• Home/away performance and neutral‑site angle

– Game will be at Ford Field (Detroit) — effectively neutral but geographically closer to CMU’s footprint, which could boost Chippewa turnout and atmosphere. TV coverage on ESPN will make this a national stage.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis

– The market centers on Northwestern -10.5 with books showing NU as the clear favorite; public money and consensus models generally back the Wildcats given conference strength and defensive profile. Line availability across books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) has clustered near -10 to -12 in opening action. – How the number moves: early sharp money often pins NU when oddsmakers respect Big Ten vs. MAC differentials; however CMU’s turnover edge and proximity to Detroit compress the expected blowout potential.

• Total (over/under) analysis

– The O/U 43.5 is low by bowl standards and reflects two defenses that bend but don’t break; NU allows ~21 PPG and CMU wins have been held to low totals, plus both teams are turnover‑prone in spots which suppresses scoring. Market lean among sharps and public wagers favors the Under.

• Best value opportunities

– If you trust Northwestern’s physical advantages up front and the absence of Cam Porter as manageable, the best straight value is taking Northwestern -10.5 at mid‑to‑low -110 pricing. – Contrarian: if you believe turnovers will decide this neutral‑site bowl and CMU’s red‑zone defense holds, CMU +10.5 offers cushion and upside given the Chippewas’ plus‑8 turnover margin.

• Prediction

– I project a controlled, clock‑eating Northwestern win that stays under the total: Northwestern 27, Central Michigan 13 — a 14‑point margin that hits the spread and keeps the game under 43.5. This aligns with Northwestern’s defensive profile, Komolafe’s rush success, and CMU’s tendency to force turnovers but not enough explosive scoring to keep pace.

Final pick: Northwestern -10.5 (play small‑to‑medium unit); play the Under 43.5 as a complementary lean. This recommendation fits Wannamakeabet’s points‑based system focusing on defense (points to cover), turnover differential (points added), and situational factors (neutral site proximity).