NFL Picks 12/25: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

@

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver and Kansas City close out Christmas Day with an AFC West grudge match that looks lopsided on paper but has plenty of betting angles. The books (DraftKings) have the Chiefs +13.5 and a Total 37.5 — a line that screams Denver dominance but also invites questions given Kansas City’s quarterback chaos.

Team Analysis

Denver

• Season overview and recent form: The Broncos (12-3) rolled to one of the NFL’s best records in 2025, led by second‑year QB Bo Nix and a top‑flight front seven; Denver entered Week 17 jockeying for the AFC’s top seed.
• Key strengths: Denver’s defense is elite — top‑5 in points allowed and among the league leaders in sacks (Nik Bonitto with 12.5 sacks is the club’s leader). That pressure has been the foundation of their long winning streak this season.
• Recent form: The Broncos lost a crucial Week 16 game to Jacksonville that exposed some red‑zone and third‑down issues, but the overall profile remains one of a playoff‑caliber team that can shorten games with defense.

Kansas City

• Season overview and recent form: The Chiefs (6-9) have endured a nightmare December — eliminated from playoff contention amid a wave of injuries and two catastrophic QB knee injuries in consecutive weeks. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and is out for the rest of 2025; Gardner Minshew exited a follow‑up game with a knee injury, thrusting Chris Oladokun to the start.
• Key weaknesses: The loss of Mahomes (and the subsequent Minshew injury) collapses the Chiefs’ passing game structure and play‑calling flexibility. Kansas City’s offense has been inconsistent and now must rely on a journeyman QB facing a top pass rush.
• Recent form: The Titans and Chargers games highlighted the offense’s fragility once Mahomes was sidelined; the unit has scored well under pressure at times this season but not without its superstar.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Historically the rivalry favors the Chiefs overall, but recent Broncos form has flipped the narrative — Denver won the most recent meeting in November 2025. This series can be swingy, but the Broncos have covered often in recent matchups.
• Important player matchups:

– Nik Bonitto and Denver’s edge rush vs. the patched‑up Chiefs offensive line — pressure will be the Broncos’ quickest path to points/turnovers. – Bo Nix and Denver’s offensive line vs. Kansas City’s defensive front — if Nix gets time the Broncos can take advantage of mismatches with Courtland Sutton and the running game. – Travis Kelce remains a primary threat for KC even with QB instability; finding him against Denver’s linebackers will be key for any Chiefs scoring.

• Key injuries and news:

– Patrick Mahomes confirmed torn ACL and underwent surgery; timeline is months, not weeks. – Gardner Minshew suffered a knee injury in the following week and was ruled out for the remainder of that contest, elevating Chris Oladokun to starter status. – Denver’s injury list is relatively light for this matchup; Bo Nix has been cleared and the Broncos’ unit is intact enough to execute late‑season game plans.

• Home/away performance: Arrowhead remains a difficult place for opponents historically, but Denver’s altitude‑conditioned defense and their road form this season blunt that advantage somewhat. Expect Arrowhead crowd noise to be a factor only if Kansas City’s offense can sustain drives.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings’ Kansas City +13.5  and the consensus market in many books has Denver around -12.5 to -13.5 — the market clearly prices Denver as a two‑score favorite. With KC starting a third‑string QB, the spread size is understandable, and some sharp lines moved toward Denver‑13 territory.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The listed totals across the market sit in the mid‑30s (36.5–37.5). Given Denver’s defensive profile and Kansas City’s offensive disruption (backup QB likely conservative gameplan), the game has strong under potential. Many predictive models and market sharps lean under, projecting a low‑scoring affair.
• Best value opportunities:

– Take the Chiefs +12.5 (DraftKings) if you believe the Broncos are vulnerable to a letdown or if Kansas City can grind clock with a run‑heavy script — getting more than two touchdowns plus a tie break has long‑term betting appeal. – Lean to the Under 37.5 as the cleaner contrarian play: Denver’s defense, KC’s QB churn, and the holiday short week favor a lower total. Books have evened out at 36.5–37.5; the conservative KC gameplan makes under money.

• Prediction: The matchup environment points to a Denver win, but not necessarily a 3‑plus possession blowout once you factor in rivalry intensity and Arrowhead’s atmosphere. Expect a Denver victory by 9–14 points in a low‑scoring game. That scenario makes Chiefs +12.5 defensible as a value hedge and Under 37.5 the stronger play.
• Final pick: Primary — Under 37.5 (Play). Secondary (contrarian) — Chiefs +13.5 (Play small). These picks align with the predictive indicators: elite Denver defense + KC QB instability = low scoring, close enough spread value.

WannaMakeaBet’s points‑based system would score these plays by weighing injury impact, public line movement, and matchup efficiency — both plays net positive EV under our rubric (defense + QB downgrades + market total compression). Back the under as the lead play and use the Chiefs teaser/alt spread as a side ticket.