Christmas picks 12/25: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Dallas Cowboys

@

Washington Commanders

The Christmas Day NFC East tilt between Dallas and Washington is a low-stakes, high-drama affair with both clubs already eliminated from postseason contention — but bettors still have angles to exploit with the market sitting at Washington +8.5 and a 50.5 total (DraftKings).

Team Analysis

Dallas

• Season overview: Dallas enters at 6-8-1, an offense that ranks near the top in yardage but a defense that has been inconsistent and leaky at times.
• Recent form: The Cowboys have dropped multiple straight, including a 34-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16 where Dallas faded badly in the second half.
• Key roster/coach notes: Dallas issued an in-season update moving Tyler Guyton to IR and ruled DeMarvion Overshown out for this game.
• Organizational context: The Cowboys entered 2025 with coaching turnover and front-office noise after Mike McCarthy’s exit earlier in the year.

Washington

• Season overview: Washington is 4-11, scoring about 20.6 PPG this season and ranked toward the bottom in net yardage.
• Recent form: The Commanders were beaten 29-18 by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16; that loss cost them momentum and saw starter Marcus Mariota suffer multiple injuries.
• QB situation: Josh Johnson, a veteran journeyman, was named the starter for this Christmas Day game after Mariota was injured and Jayden Daniels was placed on IR. Washington also added Jeff Driskel as a backup and elevated Sam Hartman as emergency depth.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Dallas has owned this rivalry of late, taking the recent October 19, 2025 meeting 44-22, and winning multiple of the last five matchups. That recent dominance matters for situational confidence.
• Important player matchups:

– Dak Prescott (Dallas passing leader) vs. a Commanders secondary that has given up chunk plays this year — Prescott’s ability to attack downfield remains Dallas’s best lever. – Washington’s rushing attack is one of its few strengths (top-5 rush yardage), but a banged-up O-line and injuries to interior pieces blunt that edge late in the year.

• Key injuries and news: Marcus Mariota is day-to-day (quad/hand) and likely out, Jayden Daniels is on IR, and Washington will start Josh Johnson; Dallas ruled Overshown out and placed Guyton on IR. Those QB and defensive availability swings are the narrative movers.
• Home/away splits: Dallas’s road form is mixed (sub-.500 away) while Washington has been poor at home; however, the Commanders’ home crowd and weather factors at Northwest Stadium can still compress lines.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market centers on Washington +8.5 (DraftKings) with many books listing Dallas as a touchdown favorite earlier in the week before the market drifted higher. Public money and betting percentages show heavy lean toward Dallas, but line movement reflects injury uncertainty and game location.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The 50.5 total sits near both teams’ seasonal averages and with Dallas games going OVER at a high clip this year (10 of 15), the market is signaling scoring upside — yet Washington’s QB uncertainty and a muddy game script could produce clock-eating rushing attempts. Lean on situational context: weather/lineups at kickoff.
• Best value opportunities: Look for live-game props tied to rushing totals (Washington backs) and early-game QB props — Josh Johnson typically runs conservative scripts, so betting early-game under on Washington passing yards could be profitable. Market inefficiency shows with some books still favoring Cowboys by -7 to -7.5 while others offer +5.5 to Washington; find shops that price Washington at +6 or better for value.
• Prediction: This shapes up as a close, low-variance spot favoring Dallas to win but not cover a large number. Washington’s QB instability neutralizes big-play upside, and Dallas’s defensive lapses make outright covering harder. Given the market and injuries, I expect a one-score game where the value is on Washington +8.5 rather than hammering Dallas. Final score projection: Cowboys 24, Commanders 21. Fox/SI market models concur with a tight final.

Final pick: Take Washington +8.5 (primary) and consider a small lean to the UNDER 50.5 if the Commanders roll out Josh Johnson and the game becomes clock-control heavy. Manage stake size — this is a matchup where matchup-specific injuries move the needle.

Wannamakeabet’s points-based system puts this as a conservative play: modest exposure on Washington +5.5, with secondary exposure to UNDER 50.5 if weather and official inactives confirm the conservative script.