New Orleans Bowl picks 12/23: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

@

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Western Kentucky and Southern Mississippi meet in the 25th New Orleans Bowl on December 23, 2025 (5:30 PM UTC), a tight-looking spot with Southern Miss listed at+2.5 and the total at 57.5 on DraftKings.

Team Analysis

Western Kentucky

• Season overview and recent form: WKU is 8-4 and earned a New Orleans Bowl invite after a season that saw them finish 6-2 in Conference USA; the program has five consecutive seasons of eight-plus wins under Tyson Helton.
• Key personnel and form: Redshirt freshman Rodney Tisdale Jr. took over midseason and finished the year with 1,367 passing yards and 9 TDs while posting efficiency numbers that justify the job.
• Team identity: WKU leans on a balanced, aggressive offense and a defense that finished among the better units in C-USA this year, allowing roughly 23–24 PPG in league play.

Southern Mississippi

• Season overview and recent form: Southern Miss finished 7-5 (5-3 Sun Belt) and flipped its trajectory from 2024, earning bowl eligibility behind improved offense play.
• Coaching and roster note: Charles Huff departed for Memphis in early December and Blake Anderson was elevated to head coach, creating an emotional and schematic wrinkle heading into the bowl.
• Key player: Senior Braylon Braxton threw for~2,796 yards and 23 TDs this season and is expected to be the offensive fulcrum if healthy.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: WKU owns the series lead and is 4-0 all-time versus Southern Miss, with the last meeting a 10-7 Hilltoppers win in 2020.
• Important player matchups:

– WKU passing attack (Tisdale, Henry, Hutchinson) vs Southern Miss secondary — WKU’s freshman QB has flashed big-play ability and a collection of reliable receivers, matching up against a Southern Miss defense that has been sound but tested by mobile and accurate QBs. – Braylon Braxton’s dual-threat skillset vs WKU’s tackling and edge defense — Braxton’s 2,700+ yard passing season creates matchup problems if he’s at full strength; WKU counters with linebackers who lead the team in tackles.

• Key injuries and news: Southern Miss dealt with the coaching turnover after Huff’s exit (Memphis hire) and the team has several questionable defenders listed late in the season; Southern Miss staff says Braxton is trending toward full availability after a knee issue.
• Home/away performance: The game is at the Caesars Superdome (neutral site) but proximity favors Southern Miss travel-wise; WKU’s success this year came on the road as well as at home, making venue a minor factor.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market centers around Southern Miss -2.5 (books vary slightly), with public money leaning toward WKU on the spread while sharp lines show some buyback toward Southern Miss after the coaching news. DraftKings shows the primary spread at Southern Miss +2.5 and the total at 57.5.
• Total (over/under) analysis: Both teams hit the Under frequently late in the season (WKU under in six of last eight; Southern Miss under in multiple recent games), and bowl-game coaching changes often suppress scoring and tempo — lean Under 57.5.
• Best value opportunities:

– Fade the public’s WKU-heavy spread action and consider Southern Miss -2.5 if you expect an emotional, coached-up Golden Eagles team under Blake Anderson; the extra half-point matters in a one-score New Orleans Bowl. – Play the Under 57.5 as the safer game-wide bet given both teams’ late-season trends and the potential for conservative gameplans with coaching turnover.

• Prediction: Expect a tight, low-to-moderate scoring affair where turnovers and field position decide it. The combination of WKU’s youthful QB play and Southern Miss’s stabilized offense under Braxton — plus the coaching switch that can sharpen motivation — points toward a one-score final. Lean to Southern Miss -2.5 for value and Under 57.5 for the total.
• Final pick: Play Southern Miss -2.5 and Under 57.5. This aligns with logic that favorites under market pressure (WKU) and bowl-game coaching upheaval (Southern Miss) create sleeper value on the underdog and the under. Assign your stake in line with Wannamakeabet’s points-based system; for readers using our model, this game rates as a moderate-value play (see Wannamakeabet point allocation for bowl games).

Good luck — target the line movement early, shop the market across books, and size the wager according to Wannamakeabet’s points-based recommendations rather than emotions.