NCAAF picks 12/20: Tulane Green Wave @ Ole Miss Rebels

By Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Tulane and Ole Miss meet in the College Football Playoff first round Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025 at 3:30 PM UTC in Oxford — an intriguing 11-2 vs. 11-1 matchup where the market lists Ole Miss -17.5 and a 57.5 total on DraftKings.

Team Analysis

Tulane

• Season overview and recent form: Tulane (American Conference champion) closed the year strong, beating North Texas 34-21 to win the AAC title and lock a CFP berth, finishing the regular season with double-digit wins and a balanced, physical attack.
• Offense/defense notes: QB Jake Retzlaff is the team’s passer and a clear rushing contributor; the Green Wave have leaned on a power rushing attack (Jamauri McClure emerged as a late-season force) and an opportunistic defense that created turnovers in the title game.
• Coaching situation: Head coach Jon Sumrall accepted the Florida job but committed to finishing the season with Tulane through the playoff run — a notable storyline that can affect preparation but hasn’t derailed results to this point.

Ole Miss

• Season overview and recent form: Ole Miss (11-1) finished with one of the most explosive offenses in the country, driven by Trinidad Chambliss’ breakout season; the Rebels average elite efficiency and tempo under the program’s recent system.
• Key personnel: Trinidad Chambliss (3,016 passing yards, ~470 rushing yards, top-10 Heisman finish) and RB Kewan Lacy (team rushing TD leader) give Ole Miss a multi-dimensional attack that can score quickly.
• Coaching change: Lane Kiffin has left for LSU and defensive coordinator Pete Golding was named the interim/head coach for the Rebels through the playoff — continuity questions on staff and play-calling are very real and worth monitoring.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Ole Miss leads the series and the teams last met on Sept. 20, 2025 when Ole Miss won 45-10 in Oxford — a recent result the market is clearly leaning on.
• Important player matchups:

– Chambliss vs. Tulane secondary — Chambliss’s deep accuracy and mobility stress Tulane’s defensive backs; if Chambliss plays to form, Ole Miss can score quickly. – Tulane run game (McClure) vs. Ole Miss run defense — Tulane’s identity is more grounded, and Ole Miss has shown vulnerability vs. the rush at points this season; this is Tulane’s best path to staying close.

• Key injuries and news:

– Ole Miss QB depth (Austin Simmons’ prior ankle/foot issues) and the post-Kiffin staff exodus have been widely reported as potential disruption points. – Tulane’s roster looks healthy entering the game with starters available and Sumrall committed to coaching the CFP game despite the Florida hire.

• Home/away performance: Ole Miss at Vaught‑Hemingway is a difficult place to play; the Rebels are one of college football’s best home teams in 2025 and get a crowd advantage in Oxford. Tulane’s recent success on the road over the past seasons is notable but facing an SEC offense at home is a step up.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis:

– Market: Ole Miss -17.5 (DraftKings listed; money and bet splits heavily favor Ole Miss on the spread and the public is leaning toward the Rebels). Simulation models and many books project a comfortable Ole Miss win, which is why the number sits near three possessions. – Context: Ole Miss’s offense can spike the scoreboard quickly, but coaching turnover and a suspect run defense temper expectations. Historically, Ole Miss has struggled to cover very large spreads consistently in 2025 despite wins. FanDuel/FOX algorithms show the model lean is the Rebels but some model picks suggest taking Tulane +17.5 ATS as value.

• Total (over/under) analysis:

– Market: 57.5 (DraftKings); public handle is leaning toward the Over on this one. – Projection: If Ole Miss scores at will early, clock management and Tulane’s ability to run will push the total higher. But coaching changes, conservative mid-game adjustments, and Tulane’s ball‑control tendencies argue the game can slow late — making the total a toss-up. Look for live-line movement; first-half totals and team props could offer cleaner edges.

• Best value opportunities:

– Tulane +17.5 ATS looks like the highest-value ticket if you believe Tulane’s run game can sustain long drives and keep possessions away from Chambliss. Multiple analytic outlets give Tulane a solid ATS profile on the season. – If you prefer the total, consider a first-half under or a moving-line late-game under if Ole Miss jumps ahead quickly and begins to chew clock — both tactical ways to exploit the tempo mismatch.

• Prediction and rationale:

– My read: Ole Miss wins, but the spread is too large for a full buy at -17.5 given coaching upheaval and Ole Miss’s run‑defensive weakness. I expect a game script where Ole Miss leads by multiple scores but Tulane sustains some long drives, limiting blowout pace. – Projected score range: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 20 — Ole Miss wins by two possessions but likely does not hit a 3+ touchdown blowout in Oxford given the variables.

• Final pick:

– Primary: Play Tulane +17.5 (ATS) for value. – Alternative smaller stake: Ole Miss moneyline if you want a straight win pick at shorter payout, and a live-play under 57.5 in the second half if the tempo collapses into clock-management. These picks align with Wannamakeabet’s points-based system that weights matchup, injuries, and market divergence — Tulane +17.5 scores well on our value metric.

Good bankroll management: this is a spot to size for value, not emotion. The market is betting heavy on Ole Miss, but the overlay on Tulane +17.5 and a second‑half under hedge are the cleanest, actionable edges based on available info and staff/roster dynamics.