StaffDNA Cure Bowl Picks 12/17: Old Dominion @ South Florida

By Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Old Dominion and South Florida close out the midweek slate in the StaffDNA Cure Bowl on Dec. 17 at 5:00 PM UTC — a matchup that suddenly looks messier for bettors with both teams listed as thin favorites/underdogs and starting quarterbacks out.

Team Analysis

Old Dominion

• Season overview and recent form

– Old Dominion finished the regular season 9-3 (6-2 Sun Belt) and enters Orlando on a five-game winning streak, with the program celebrating its best season in years and perfect home form during 2025. – The Monarchs lean on an explosive ground game and a stout defensive unit that produced several eye-opening wins (including a signature road upset over Virginia Tech), but their identity is tied closely to dual-threat QB Colton Joseph, who has opted out/entered the portal. – Backup Quinn Henicle will start and brings the run-game chops to keep ODU competitive; expect a heavier rushing script and more conservative downfield passing.

South Florida

• Season overview and recent form

– South Florida also finished 9-3 (6-2 American) with signature early wins at Boise State and No. 13 Florida, powering a nationally-ranked offense for much of the year. – The Bulls’ season-long engine has been QB Byrum Brown, a true dual-threat who led the offense — but Brown has decided not to play in the bowl as he evaluates his future, thrusting Gaston Moore into a first collegiate start.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history

– The teams have no recent deep rivalry; this is presented as a neutral-season, inter-conference bowl clash with little meaningful head-to-head history to lean on.

• Important player matchups

– ODU run game (Trequan Jones / Henicle carries) vs USF front seven — with both QBs out, the trenches and RB work rate become pivotal; ODU will try to control clock and tempo with designed QB run/installations.

• Key injuries and news

– The two biggest developments are Byrum Brown and Colton Joseph not playing — that flips pre-bowl prep and line movement, and forces both offenses into less-proven hands. – Coaching changes around USF (staff movement) further muddy the play-calling and continuity picture for the Bulls.

• Home/away performance

– Neutral-site in Orlando (Camping World Stadium) slightly favors fan travel from both schools but reduces pure home-field edge; both teams have strong late-season form which neutralizes location as the primary edge.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis

– Market movement has been active: multiple books opened South Florida as a larger favorite but the opt-outs and coaching churn compressed lines; DraftKings/DKNetwork and other outlets showed the Bulls as small favorites in the -3 to -6 range before market action. – With the user-primary line at South Florida -2.5, Old Dominion is a playable live dog because both teams will operate with backups and ODU’s run-first script fits a low-variance bowl (favoring the underdog).

• Total (over/under) analysis

– Pre-bowl totals inflated with both offenses in full health; the QB opt-outs and likely conservative gameplans push this toward a lower-scoring spot — the market total ( 51.5) looks beatable on the Under given ODU’s recent under trends and both backups’ conservative passing profiles.

• Best value opportunities

– Play Old Dominion +2.5 to +4 (depending on juice) — ODU’s rushing identity and Henicle’s mobility compress upside for blown-out margins and increases cover probability. – Lean Under 51.5 — the conservative scripts, QB unknowns, and bowl rust suggest a low-to-mid 40s combined total is likelier than a shootout.

• Prediction

– This projects as a tight, tempo-driven game where the team that wins the line of scrimmage and limits turnovers — not the team with the most explosive play — will win. I expect a compressed scoreline with Old Dominion covering at +2.5 and the combined points staying under 51.5 given both backups and conservative play-calling.

Final pick: Old Dominion +2.5 (main), Under 51.5 (secondary) — use Wannamakeabet’s points-based system to scale stake: small unit on the spread (value grade: 3/5) and a medium unit on the Under (value grade: 4/5).