NFL Picks 12/14 – Panthers @ Saints – Can the Saints Do It Again?

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Long-time division rivals are set to clash in Week 15 as the NFC South-leading Carolina Panthers (7-6) visit the last place New Orleans Saints (3-10) on Sunday afternoon at Caesars Superdome. This will be the final meeting of the season between the NFC South combatants. New Orleans upset Carolina 17-7 in the first matchup on Nov. 9. Carolina’s seven points against New Orleans was a season-low. The Saints have won four of the last five against the Panthers. 

Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 40.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAME

Carolina had a bye last week but stunned the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams 31-28 at home in Week 13 on Nov. 30. The Panthers closed as a 10-point underdog against the NFC-leading Rams, making it one of the biggest upsets of the season. Bryce Young’s 43-yard, go-ahead touchdown pass to rookie Tetairoa McMillan with 6:34 left in the game provided the final margin of victory. 

It was the 11th time that Bryce Young led a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime. At 24 years and 128 days, Young became the youngest quarterback in NFL history to achieve this. He surpassed reigning league MVP Josh Allen (24 years and 164 days). 

Carolina’s defense was tremendous in the upset of the Rams intercepting the usually efficient Matt Stafford twice — including a 48-yard pick-six by Mike Jackson — and forcing him to lose a fumble once. Stafford had thrown an NFL record 28 touchdowns without an interception coming into the game. 

The Rams looked to be in good position to win or tie the game late in the fourth quarter as they drove down to the Carolina 22-yard-line, but defensive tackle Derrick Brown strip-sacked Matt Stafford and recovered the fumble with 2:25 remaining. Carolina was able to run the clock out after converting one first down. 

Bryce Young finished 15 of 20 for 206 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Chuba Hubbard compiled 83 yards on 17 carries and caught two passes for 41 yards with a touchdown reception. Wideouts Jalen Coker (4 catches for 74 yards) and Tetairoa McMillan (1 catch for 43 yards) also caught touchdown passes. 

New Orleans upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-20 on the road last week. The Saints were an 8.5-point underdog against the Buccaneers. The Saints iced the game after Tampa Bay faced fourth-and-4 on their own 26-yard-line and the defense pressured quarterback Baker Mayfield into completing a three-yard pass to Cade Otton which resulted in a turnover on downs. 

Saints’ rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s two rushing touchdowns proved to be pivotal in the victory. He completed 13 of 20 passes for 144 yards and an interception. Rookie sixth-round running back Devin Neal rushed for a game-high 70 yards on 15 carries and added a rushing touchdown for the Saints. Neal was making his third start of the year in place of veteran star Alvin Kamara.

GAME STORYLINES: CAROLINA 

During the 2023 NFL draft, the Carolina Panthers made the audacious move of trading up eight spots to acquire the No. 1 overall pick. They selected Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the pick. The Panthers believed Young could be the franchise quarterback they’ve lacked since Cam Newton — whom they also selected with the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 — departed in 2019. Young amassed a stellar three-year career at Alabama where he won the 2021 Heisman Trophy as a true sophomore and passed for 80 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in his 2 years as the Crimson Tide’s starting quarterback.

Unfortunately, Bryce Young’s first two seasons in the NFL were somewhat underwhelming when you consider the lofty expectations placed upon him as a draft prospect. He was okay as a rookie passing for 2,877 yards with 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions over 16 games, but Carolina finished with a 2-15 record. To make matters worse, fellow rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud — the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft — produced a spectacular rookie season for the Houston Texans who finished 10-7 and won their division.

Bryce Young’s career appeared to be spiraling downward in an expeditious manner in year two when he was benched after just two starts (Carolina lost 47-10 and 26-3 in those 2 games) in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. Young was able to regain the starting job back from Dalton and ended the 2024 season on a high note, improving his overall numbers (2,403 passing yards, 15 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in 14 gms) and leading Carolina to a 4-5 finish after they started the year 1-7. Carolina’s win total increased by 3 games (5-12) in Bryce’s second season a year ago.

Bryce Young appears to have turned the corner this season in year three as he’s performing well while Carolina is winning games. On the season, the 24-year-old Young has thrown for 2,537 yards with 18 touchdowns to 9 interceptions on 63.4 percent completions through 12 games. He’s on pace to set career highs in passing yards, touchdown passes and completion percentage. Young threw for a career-high and franchise-record 448 yards in a comeback win at Atlanta in Week 11.

In addition to Bryce Young’s improvement, Carolina is also on pace to record their highest win total since 2017 when they finished 11-5. With Tampa Bay’s upset loss to Atlanta on Thursday night, Carolina is now in a great position to win the NFC South division for the first time since 2015 — when they went 15-1 and advanced to the Super Bowl. 

Star rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan (826 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns in 13 gms) and running back Rico Dowdle (929 rushing yards, 5 rushing yards, 254 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdowns in 13 gms) are having great seasons for Carolina. The strong production from McMillan and Dowdle has played a key role in the improvement of Bryce Young this season.

The Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall in the NFL draft out of Arizona and he ranks second (Emeka Egbuka – TB) amongst all rookie pass catchers in receiving yards. Rico Dowdle signed a modest one-year, $2.75 million deal with Carolina in the offseason after rushing for a career-high 1,079 yards for Dallas last season. He will soon surpass last year’s career high marks. The 27-year-old Dowdle is going to command a huge contract in the free agent market. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW ORLEANS

In early 2006, the New Orleans Saints made two moves that dramatically reversed the fortunes of the previously snake-bitten franchise. The first was hiring Sean Payton as head coach in January 2006. The second was signing quarterback Drew Brees as a free agent in March 2006. Both moves did not receive a lot of fanfare at the time, but the combination of Payton and Brees elevated the Saints franchise to extraordinary heights. 

In the 15 seasons (2006-2020) with Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton as the head coach, the Saints experienced unparalleled levels of success that culminated with the franchise winning its first Super Bowl (46) in the 2009 season. The Brees and Payton-led Saints also made 9 playoff appearances and won 7 division titles. Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season at age 42. Payton then stepped down as head coach the following season in 2021.

  

Since the departures of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, the New Orleans Saints have had a difficult time filling the void left by arguably the greatest player in franchise history (Brees) and the winningest coach in franchise history (Payton). They will miss the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season this year, and are in danger of suffering their most losses in a season since 2005 when they finished 3-13. The Saints have also started 9 different quarterbacks in the five seasons since Brees retired. 

The Saints were dealt a surprising and significant blow in the offseason after 34-year-old incumbent starting quarterback Derek Carr announced his retirement in May. He was dealing with a chronic right shoulder injury that was not healing properly. Carr decided to walk away from a guaranteed $30 million dollars instead of undergoing a surgical procedure that would cause him to miss the entire 2025 season. Carr finished with 257 touchdown passes to 112 interceptions over his 11 NFL seasons with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans. 

With Derek Carr gone, the Saints began the season with a pair of youngsters at quarterback in second-year returnee Spencer Rattler and rookie second-round pick (40th overall) Tyler Shough out of Louisville. Rattler began the year as the starter but was benched for Shough midway through a 23-3 loss at home to Tampa Bay in Week 8. Shough has been named the starter for the rest of the season. 

The 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough has passed 1,084 yards with 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and rushed for 2 touchdowns across 5 starts. Shough spent 7 years in college with three different schools (Oregon, Texas Tech, Louisville) so he has a lot more experience than the average rookie quarterback. 

Despite the dreary season, New Orleans is getting terrific production from several players. On offense, star wideout Chris Olave (team-leading 811 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns in 13 gms) and tight end Juwan Johnson (614 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns in 13 gms) are the standouts. The 25-year-old, Ohio State product Olave has bounced back and is producing at a high level after two concussions limited him to just 8 games last year. Olave topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons before the concussions derailed the 2024 campaign. 

On defense, veteran stars Demario Davis (team-leading 118 tackles, 2 forced fumbles in 13 gms) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (31 tackles, team-leading 6.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 13 gms), defensive end Chase Young (20 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 8 gms) and cornerbacks Alontae Taylor (60 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 sack in 13 gms) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (58 tackles, team-leading 3 interceptions in 13 gms) are playing very well. 

The 36-year-old Cam Jordan is an 8-time pro bowler and is the Saints all-time leader in sacks with 128. He’s spent his entire 15-year career with the Saints. The 26-year-old Chase Young has resurrected his once promising career in his two seasons with the Saints. Young was the 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year after being selected 2nd overall by Washington, but a torn ACL suffered in November 2021 derailed the next 2 seasons (2022 and 2023) with Washington and San Francisco. 

THE PICK: PANTHERS (-2.5)

Despite being in good position to have one of their best teams in several years, Carolina has been sort of a Jekyll and Hyde team this season. They’ve scored 13 points or less in 6 games this year. And a beatable opponent like New Orleans could be a game that trips up the Panthers. But I think the Panthers will have payback on their mind after their embarrassing 17-7 loss to the Saints at home earlier in the year. Lay the Points…Panthers 24, Saints 16