Bucked Up LA Bowl Picks – Boise State @ Washington

Boise State and Washington meet in the Bucked Up LA Bowl on December 13, 2025 — a Pacific Northwest replay on neutral ground that pits Mountain West champion Boise State against a Big Ten Washington squad with high-upside playmakers.

Team Analysis

Boise State

• Season overview and recent form: Boise State finished the year 9-4 after claiming a third straight Mountain West title with a 38-21 win over UNLV on Dec. 5, a game in which Maddux Madsen threw for 289 yards and accounted for four TDs after returning from injury.
• Key strengths and stats: The Broncos run a balanced attack that averaged roughly 432.7 yards per game with 188.4 rushing yards per outing, and they excelled in passing defense (holding opponents to about 171.7 passing yards/game).
• Playmakers to watch: Dylan Riley led the ground game (1,091 yards) and LaTrell Caples and Chase Penry have been primary receiving threats when Madsen is healthy.

Washington

• Season overview and recent form: Washington checks in 8-4 and struggled late in the regular season, including a November loss to Oregon, but they still boast a productive offense that averages roughly 414.6 yards and 33.8 points per game.
• Key strengths and stats: The Huskies’ defense has been stout at times (around 311.3 yards allowed per game with a top-20 rush defense), and their offense is powered by Demond Williams Jr., who entered bowl season with about 2,850 passing yards, 21 TDs and 595 rushing yards.
• Playmakers to watch: Demond Williams Jr. (dual-threat QB), Jonah Coleman (goal-line rusher with 14 rushing TDs), and Denzel Boston (top receiving option) are Washington’s focal points.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Washington leads the series 4-2 and the most recent meeting was a 56-19 Huskies blowout in 2023. The schools have limited history but Washington’s wins tend to be decisive.
• Important player matchups: Boise State’s interior defensive line vs Washington’s rushing attack led by Jonah Coleman — if the Broncos can win the line of scrimmage they force Demond Williams Jr. to beat them consistently. Conversely, Washington’s front seven versus Boise State’s balanced rushing duo of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines will determine time of possession and tempo.
• Key injuries and news: Boise State got a timely return from Maddux Madsen for the Mountain West title after an ankle issue, and Washington has been navigating minor OL and defensive niggles late in the year but has no widely reported major injuries entering the bowl. Check late scratches pregame for any last-minute moves.
• Home/away (neutral-site) performance: This is a true neutral-site tilt at SoFi Stadium, meaning travel and bowl layoff effects matter more than home-field advantage — Boise State plays well after short week turnarounds and proves competitive in neutral bowls; Washington has the higher-end talent but inconsistent finishes this season.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings lists Washington -10.0 and the market in other books sits around-9.5 to -10.5, implying a two-score expectation favoring the Huskies. Shops like FanDuel and Covers show similar ranges and moneyline juicing that points to Washington as sizable favorite.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The DraftKings total is 52.5. Given both teams’ scoring profiles — Washington averaging ~34 PPG and Boise State ~31 PPG — plus bowl rhythms and defenses tightening in postseason, the market around 51.5–53.5 is reasonable; lean to the under if you trust Washington’s defensive red-zone efficiency and Boise State’s recent tendency to play complementary football in big games.
• Best value opportunities:

– Look at Washington -10 or -9.5 in early books — if you expect them to control possession and limit Boise State’s explosive plays, the favorite to cover is fair value (shop the -10 versus -9.5 lines). – For contrarian plays, Boise State +10 with a small parlay on the under 52.5 offers upside; the Broncos’ rushing attack and late-season cohesion make them live dogs in a one-off bowl.

• Prediction: This feels like a game Washington should win — they have the higher ceiling on offense and a defense capable of slowing Boise State’s rhythm. But the Broncos are hot and well-coached in bowl settings; expect a competitive first half with Washington pulling away late if they get consistent QB play from Demond Williams Jr.
• Final pick: Washington -10.0. Game lean: Washington 28, Boise State 17 — take the Huskies to cover and play a small hedge on Under 52.5 if you’re worried about a shootout.

Wannamakeabet’s points-based system: this pick scores highest on our model’s matchup weighting (defense vs run/pass, recent form, injuries) and ranks as a moderately confident play in the LA Bowl slate — bet size: medium on Washington -10.0 with a small side wager on Under 52.5.