Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 12/7 – It Ain’t What It Used To Be

Pittsburgh Steelers

@

Baltimore Ravens

The AFC North stakes are high on Sunday when Pittsburgh (6-6) visits Baltimore (6-6) at M&T Bank Stadium — 1:00 PM UTC on December 7, 2025 — with Baltimore installed as a 6-point favorite and a total set at 42.5.

Team Analysis

Pittsburgh

• Season overview and recent form: Pittsburgh enters Week 14 at 6-6, sliding after a brutal 26-7 home loss to Buffalo in Week 13 that exposed run-defense problems and inconsistent quarterback play.
• Injuries & roster moves: The Steelers’ Week 14 report lists key absences including S Kyle Dugger and DT Derrick Harmon, and the team recently shuffled the secondary, parting ways with CB Darius Slay and adding WR Adam Thielen.
• Quarterback note: Veteran Aaron Rodgers (Steeler starter) has limited but efficient production this year; his ball-security focus matters versus a Ravens defense that pressures but doesn’t force tons of interceptions.

Baltimore

• Season overview and recent form: Baltimore is also 6-6, riding a roller-coaster season that saw a midseason surge and a recent slump; their identity remains run-first under OC Todd Monken with heavy reliance on Derrick Henry.
• Health and personnel: Lamar Jackson was limited in midweek practices with an ankle issue but was listed as back to practice and expected to play Sunday; the Ravens reported an otherwise healthy 53-man roster for Week 14.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Recent meetings favor the Ravens — Baltimore dominated the Wild Card rematch and ran for historic totals against Pittsburgh (299 rushing yards in the Wild Card), showing a matchup edge in the trenches.
• Important player matchups: Derrick Henry vs. Pittsburgh’s weakened front is central — Henry has been the Ravens’ bellcow and a clear edge if the Steelers remain short-handed on the interior.
• Key injuries and news: Lamar Jackson’s limited practice days create some volatility, while the Steelers are missing depth on the defensive line and in the secondary — those absences increase the Ravens’ margin for error in the run game and short passing game.
• Home/away splits: Baltimore’s offense leans on controlled drives at M&T Bank Stadium, while Pittsburgh has been a below-average road ATS performer this season — the travel and crowd favor the Ravens.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: Books (DraftKings/market aggregators) center the line around Baltimore -6 (some opened wider), reflecting the Ravens’ matchup advantage and public money on the favorite; early steam tends to favor Baltimore in this line range.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The 42.5 total looks tilted to the under if Lamar Jackson is limited and the Steelers’ offense (struggling to sustain drives and score) is held in check; however, Baltimore’s propensity to run and score in chunks (and Pittsburgh’s turnover issues) keep an “over” case alive. Books show split modeling with many simulations landing around a low-to-mid 40s scoreline.
• Best value opportunities:

– Fade situations: If the line pushes to Baltimore -7.5 or more, look at a Steelers cover ticket — Pittsburgh has a strong recent ATS record vs. Baltimore and the rivalry produces tight, one-possession games. – Props: Lean Derrick Henry 80+ rush yards and Aaron Rodgers under on passing yards (Rodgers’ recent low-volume/efficient games make a low-yardage prop plausible).

Prediction logic: Baltimore’s run dominance, healthier depth, and home-field edge give them the structural advantage — but Pittsburgh’s rivalry toughness and ATS history in this matchup make covering likelihood real. With Jackson banged up and Pittsburgh’s recent offensive futility, the most probable game script is a Ravens win by one possession with a modest scoring total.

• Final pick: Take Baltimore -6 (moneyline/sweep if you like the upside), and play Derrick Henry 80+ rush yards as a single prop.

Closing: This is a textbook rivalry spot where matchup details — Pittsburgh’s injury holes up front and Baltimore’s ability to impose a ground game even if Lamar Jackson is limited — swing the edge to Baltimore. Use Wannamakeabet’s points-based system to size your stake: give this play a moderate confidence score and scale your unit accordingly.