NFL Picks 12/7 – Colts @ Jags – High Leverage in the AFC South

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week 14 presents a matchup of the top two teams in the AFC South as the Indianapolis Colts (8-4) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) on Sunday afternoon at EverBank Stadium. This is the first meeting of the year between the division rivals. They’ll square off again in three weeks (Dec. 28) in Indianapolis. The Colts picked up a 26-23 overtime win against the Jaguars at home the last time these teams met in Week 18 of last season. 

Jacksonville has won five of the last seven against Indianapolis dating back to the 2021 season. The Colts will be looking to end a 10-game road losing streak against Jacksonville — one of those road losses was in London during the 2016 season. Indianapolis’ last road win at Jacksonville took place in September 2014. 

Indianapolis is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 46.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAMES

Indianapolis lost 20-16 to the Houston Texans at home in Week 13. Despite being stymied by Houston’s stout defense for most of the game, Indianapolis was able to drive down to the Texans’ 31-yard line with a chance to win the game with two minutes remaining in regulation. But a drop by Josh Downs on third-and-9 and an incompletion on fourth down ended the drive and the Colts opportunity to win. It was the first home loss (6-1) of the season for the Colts. 

Daniel Jones completed 14 of 27 passes for 201 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions for Indianapolis. Jones reportedly played the game with a fracture in his fibula — he suffered the injury at Kansas City on Nov. 23. The leg injury may explain why the usually mobile Jones only had one rushing attempt for one yard. 

NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor produced 85 yards on 21 carries in the loss. He added three catches for 36 yards. Wideout Alec Pierce notched team highs of four catches and 78 yards, along with a touchdown for the Colts. After getting off to a 7-1 start, Indianapolis has lost three of their last four contests. All three losses have been by 7 points or less. 

Jacksonville pummeled the hapless Tennessee Titans 25-3 (1-11) on the road in Week 13. It was Jacksonville’s third straight victory. Trevor Lawrence completed 16 of 27 passes for 229 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. He rushed for 25 yards on three carries. Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (6 catches for 90 yards) and tight end Brenton Strange (3 catches for 45 yards) each caught a touchdown pass. 

The Jacksonville defense sacked Titans rookie Cam Ward — the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft — three times and recovered two fumbles. The three points allowed against Tennessee was a season-best for Jacksonville’s defense.

GAME STORYLINES: INDIANAPOLIS 

After the unexpected retirement of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck at just 29-years-old in August 2019, the Indianapolis Colts spent the next 6 seasons scrambling to find a suitable replacement. The Colts struggled to find that suitable replacement for Luck as they started 10 different quarterbacks over the past 6 seasons (2019-2024). Not coincidentally, the Colts instability at the quarterback position has led to 4 straight years missing the playoffs prior to this season. 

In the offseason, Indianapolis took a flier on Daniel Jones to compete for the starting quarterback position. They signed him to a one-year, $14 million deal. The much-maligned Jones entered the NFL with high expectations after being selected 6th overall in the 2019 NFL draft by the New York Giants. But he was eventually released by the Giants in the middle of the 2024 season after a turbulent five-year tenure with the team. Jones finished the remainder of the 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings.

Daniel Jones beat out former high draft pick Anthony Richardson (4thh overall in the 2023 NFL draft) for the starting quarterback position and proceeded to emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL for much of this season. The Colts were the surprise team of 2025 after getting off to a 7-1 start thanks in large part to the excellent play of Jones. 

On the season, the 28-year-old Jones has passed for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns to 7 interceptions while completing 67.9 percent of his passes. He’s rushed for 160 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Jones will likely establish career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns this year. 

Superstar running Jonathan Taylor is also a big reason why the Colts have been one of the best teams in the NFL for much of the season. The 26-year-old, Wisconsin product leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,282) and rushing touchdown (15) in 2025. Taylor has a shot at eclipsing his career-highs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (1,811 yards and 18 TDs in 2021) this year. 

The wideout duo of Alec Pierce (team-leading 689 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns in 12 gms) and Michael Pittman Jr. (620 yards, team-leading 7 touchdowns in 10 gms), along with star rookie tight end Tyler Warren (684 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns in 12 gms) are also standouts in the Colts offense. The Colts selected Warren 14th overall (Penn State) in the NFL draft, and he ranks third amongst all rookie pass catchers in receiving yards. 

GAME STORYLINES: JACKSONVILLE

After finishing 1-15 in 2020 and securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars put themselves in position to draft highly-touted Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The 6-foot-6 Lawrence was one of the most ballyhooed college prospects of all time after a stellar three-year career at Clemson. In his three years at Clemson, Lawrence was 34-2 as a starter, won a National Championship as a true freshman and passed for 90 touchdowns.

Trevor Lawrence’s first four years in the NFL were somewhat underwhelming when you consider the enormous hype he had prior to the 2021 draft. He did lead Jacksonville to an AFC South division title in his second year (2022) and registered his best statistical season finishing with career-highs of 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns. Lawrence also guided Jacksonville to its first playoff win since the 2017 season. 

Jacksonville suffered a disastrous late-season meltdown in 2023 where they lost 6 of their last 7 to finish 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Last season, a nagging shoulder injury followed by a concussion for Trevor Lawrence ended his season in Week 13. Lawrence played in only 10 games, and Jacksonville finished with a dismal 4-13 record. 

The Jaguars entered the 2025 season with lots of optimism due to a healthy Trevor Lawrence returning and the addition of rookie Travis Hunter. Like Lawrence, Hunter was also a highly-touted college prospect after a phenomenal junior season at Colorado where he starred as a wide receiver and cornerback. He won the 2024 Heisman Trophy after amassing 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns on offense, along with 32 tackles, 4 interceptions and 11 pass breakups on defense. Jacksonville traded up 3 spots in the NFL draft to select Hunter with the second overall pick. 

Unfortunately, Travis Hunter was rarely able to showcase his two-way, game-breaking talents in the NFL as a rookie due Jacksonville bringing him along slowly and a season-ending injury. He was used mostly as a wide receiver and played limited snaps on defense. 

Travis Hunter’s season ended after just 7 games due to an LCL injury to his right knee suffered during a practice on Oct. 30. He finished the year with 298 yards and a touchdown as a wideout, and 15 tackles with 3 passes defended on defense. Jacksonville still plans to utilize Hunter on offense and defense next season. 

Jacksonville’s season appeared to be spiraling downhill after a discouraging 35-7 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in London on Oct. 19 dropped them to 4-3. Travis Hunter suffered his season-ending injury 11 days later during their bye week. Jacksonville was able to regroup and went 4-1 after the bye week. They are now in position to win the AFC South division for the first time since 2022. If Jacksonville can win 3 more games, they’ll have their highest win total since 2007 when they finished 11-5.

On offense, the mainstay duo of Trevor Lawrence (2,636 passing yards, 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 12 gms) and running back Travis Etienne Jr. (843 yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, 173 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns in 12 gms) — they were also college teammates for 3 years at Clemson — along with emerging wideout Parker Washington (447 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 punt return touchdowns in 12 gms) are the standouts. 

The third-year, Penn State product Parker Washington has received more playing time due to an injury-riddled wideout unit and is taking advantage of it. He will establish career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns this season. 

The trio of star defensive end Josh Hines-Allen (33 tackles, 6 sacks in 12 gms), linebacker Foyesade Oluokin (96 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, 5 tackles for loss in 12 gms) and defensive tackle Arik Armstead (23 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 7 tackles for loss in 11 gms) anchor a formidable defense. 

THE PICK: JAGUARS (+1.5)

After a red-hot 7-1 start, the Colts have come back down to earth. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games. Daniel Jones is reportedly playing on a broken leg. On the other hand, Jacksonville has won 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5. The Jaguars have also dominated the Colts at home, winning 9 straight against them. We have two teams going in opposite directions as the playoffs approach. Take the Point(s)…Jaguars 27, Colts 21