Our Big Ten college football predictions for this week only feature one intra-conference game but all teams are playing none the less. Ohio State is a 15.5-point favorite on the road at Indiana in the lone Big Ten Week 3 conference matchup.
Nine other Big Ten teams are in action on Saturday and, not surprisingly, all are favored except the Purdue Boilermakers. They are a 3-point underdog at home against TCU. Now, let’s get int our big ten college football predictions for this week.
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Week 3 lines:
Here are the betting odds and some key information that bettors should know heading into Saturday’s games. These are the games that all the Sports betting sites are talking about:
Ohio State (-15.5) at Indiana
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (FOX) Opening line: Ohio State -15 Total: 60.5
Analysis: Ohio State has won 23 straight matchups against the Hoosiers. The Buckeyes are holding firm as 15.5-point favorites in their conference opener against an Indiana team that has its sights set on a bowl game in 2019.
Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen enjoyed two wins to start out his all-important third year at the helm in Bloomington. He will look to begin Big Ten play with an upset victory over a Buckeye team that shut out Cincinnati 42-0 last week. Quick note on the total. The UNDER has cashed in four out of Indiana’s last five games. Back door cover will be swinging late in this game and I think Indiana will walk right through it. The Pick: Hoosiers +15.
Pittsburgh at Penn State (-17)
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ABC) Opening line: Penn State -17 Total: 53.5
Analysis: Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games and opened as a 17-point favorite against a Panther team that covered at home against Ohio University in Week 2. The Nittany Lions dominated this matchup last year, winning 51-6, and have covered five straight games in the month of September. The total has gone UNDER in Pittsburgh’s last six games, including its last five on the road. Feels like another blowout. I like the Nittany Lions -17.
Maryland (-7) at Temple
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (CBSSN) Opening line: Maryland -8 Total: 64
Analysis: 7-2 all-time against Temple, the Terps are seeing a high early ticket count after impressing last week against Syracuse, knocking off a ranked Orange squad, 63-20. Entering Week 3, Maryland’s 7.7 yards per play on offense is tied for fifth in the nation with Alabama. Temple has not fared well against Big Ten teams in recent years, going 2-15 SU in its last 17 games against the conference. But one of those wins came on the road in College Park last year when Temple disposed of Maryland, 35-14. This one could end up being a Pros vs. Joes game with the public backing the favorite and the professionals ending up on the dog. Maryland overvalued this week and I think the Owls get it done +8.
Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7.5)
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: Illinois -8.5 Total: 55.5
Analysis: Eastern Michigan is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games on the road, while Illinois is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games at home. The Illini are laying more than a TD for the third consecutive week. A MAC team has beaten a Big Ten team in 13 consecutive seasons (the longest streak in MAC history), thanks in part to Eastern Michigan. The Eagles beat Rutgers 16-13 last year and Purdue 20-19 in 2017.
UNLV at Northwestern (-18.5)
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: Northwestern -20.5 Total: 54
Analysis: Northwestern has been bet down to -18.5 after opening up as -20.5 favorites. UNLV has lost eight straight games against Big Ten opponents and comes off a 43-17 blowout loss against Arkansas State. The Wildcats come off a break after losing their opener 17-7 to Stanford on the west coast.
Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-15.5)
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: Minnesota -16 Total: 46.5
Analysis: Minnesota returns home after narrowly defeating Fresno State in overtime last week. Georgia Southern comes off a 26-18 home victory over Maine in Week 2 following a 55-3 loss on the road at LSU to open up the season. This is a strange matchup and I’m pretty sure these two teams have never played each other. Therefore, despite being a gambler and lover of all Sports Betting Sites, I will pass on this one.
Arizona State at Michigan State (-13)
Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (FOX) Opening line: Michigan State -13.5 Total: 42
Analysis: The Spartans have had this game circled on their calendar since September of last year after they went to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe and lost outright as 5-point favorites. Last season’s matchup in the Arizona humidity kicked off at midnight on the Michigan State players’ body clocks. Sparty coach Mark Dantonio will have his players ready to get their revenge on Saturday in East Lansing.
The market is well-aware of the Michigan State revenge angle in this game, as it appears to be clearly priced into the point spread at -13. Oddsmakers will do what they can to attract Arizona State money, and this spread has a great chance to reach two full TDs by kickoff. For those who are able to get down on it, a dog-and-under correlated parlay is worth a look.
Iowa (-1.5) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (FS1) Opening line: Pick’em Total: 44.5
Analysis: ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Ames on Saturday as the two in-state rivals battle it out for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. As much as it pains me to write this as an Iowa alum, Iowa State is one of my favorite value plays this weekend. I bet Iowa State -2.5 in the look-ahead market for this game a couple of weeks ago before the Cyclones narrowly survived against Northern Iowa to start out the season and before the Hawkeyes enjoyed impressive point spread covers in both of their opening home wins.
The market has moved too far on the Hawkeyes here, and I am happy to get into play on the Cyclones getting points at home. Part of the reason for the inflated price on the Hawkeyes is coach Kirk Ferentz’s current 16-4-1 ATS run. Iowa has also beat its in-state rival in four straight, covering in the last three. But the Cyclone crowd will be out in full force with the College GameDay crew in town, and coach Matt Campbell’s squad has had an extra week to prepare for this one. It is time to take advantage of a strong Iowa State team at home in a great situational spot before the market corrects itself on them moving forward.
TCU (-3) at Purdue
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: TCU -2 Total: 51
Analysis: Most sportsbooks were slow to open this game due to uncertainty surrounding Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar. The senior suffered a concussion in the Boilermakers’ 42-24 home win over Vanderbilt in Week 2 and as of Tuesday afternoon, his Week 3 status is up in the air. Redshirt freshman QB Jack Plummer is in line to get the start if Sindelar can’t go, and the betting market is pricing the game accordingly, moving quickly to TCU -3 after some offshore books installed the Boilermakers as -1 opening favorites earlier in the week.
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-14)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. CT (FS1) Opening line: Nebraska -14.5 Total: 54.5
Analysis: Nebraska lost outright the last time it was laying points at home to Northern Illinois. The Huskies beat the Huskers 21-17 as underdogs when they met in Week 3 just two years ago. Nebraska enters this game after blowing a double-digit lead to Colorado last week while NIU is in a more difficult travel spot after returning home from a battle against a physical Utah team in Salt Lake City. At -14 or less, the Huskers may be a good early position to take before limits raise at most books later in the week. Then if the number moves north of two full TDs later in the week, those with a Nebraska ticket can do some maneuvering.
To know more about upcoming big ten college football predictions stay tuned with us.
Jack Kincaid is a senior NFL Analyst for Wannamakeabet.com