The NFL Contrarian: Week 15

By Ryan Somers

Ughhhh, this week looks rough, and seems to be a weird week. First time I have seen all year where there is very little to almost none reverse line movement and sharp bets. Even with that we will try to navigate the waters and find a couple good winning values.

Chicago +5 vs Detroit

Here is your Saturday Special! Since this line opened last week it has come down from -7 to -5 for Detroit, which tells us that the early money was on Chicago. Add the fact that Detroit’s rush defense is 28th and Chicago runs the ball 48% of the time, which is 3rd in the NFL.

Philadelphia vs NY Giants +7.5

This is just a gut call. The only things that have put me on the Giants are the reverse line movement throughout the week and the fact that they are getting only 32% of the tickets but 37% of the money. Plus I believe that Nick Foles will struggle on the road in his first start in a long time, so give me the Giants and hope they lose by a touchdown or less.

Cleveland +7 vs Baltimore

I must have a thing for the Browns. Another call, that is purely going against all the analytics. The Browns haven’t won at all this year, but they are playing super hard still, and I believe they will get a win in these last few games. Baltimore on the other hand just suffered a heart breaking loss to their division rival Pittsburgh which also gave them the division title. I don’t think Baltimore will get up for this game and it will end by less than a touchdown.


Teams      % of bets                                                  ticket                                                                                                                                                           Money %

Cincinnati +11 

 29                                                                                    50

Minnesota                                                                 71                                                                                    50


LA Rams (lock of week) +1        

41                                                                                    48

Seattle                                                                         59                                                                                    52

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