MLB Picks 5/8 – Braves @ Dodgers

Two of MLB’s top teams and division leaders begin a three-game weekend set tonight as the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves (26-12) visit the reigning back-to-back champion and National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (23-14) at Dodger Stadium on ESPN. The teams will meet again for a three-game series in Atlanta beginning on Aug. 25. Los Angeles has dominated Atlanta of late winning 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matchups and 7 in a row at home against the Braves.

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

Atlanta’s three-game set in Los Angeles will conclude a nine-game, West Coast road trip. They began the trip with a three-game sweep in Colorado and then dropped 2 of 3 at Seattle prior to arriving in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Atlanta’s series loss to the Mariners was their first of the season.

Los Angeles returns home after a six-game road trip where they started off losing 2 of 3 in St. Louis and then bounced back to win 2 of 3 in Houston. Tonight begins a 7-game homestand for the Dodgers. They’ll face division rival San Francisco for a four-game set at the conclusion of the Atlanta series.

Tonight’s starters are veteran star Chris Sale (6-1, 2.14 ERA, 49 strikeouts in 7 starts) for Atlanta and Emmet Sheehan (2-1, 5.23 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 5 starts) for Los Angeles.

Moneyline: Atlanta (even),   Los Angeles (-120)

Run Line: Atlanta -1.5 (+157),   Los Angeles +1.5 (-192)

Run Total: over 8 (-112),   under 8 (-108)

Last season, the Atlanta Braves experienced a rare losing season finishing with a 76-86 mark. Getting off to an 0-7 start along with faulty pitching doomed the Braves for the entire season. Superstars Spencer Strider (Tommy John Surgery) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL) still recovering from 2024 injuries and beginning the year on the injured list also hindered the Braves last season. Atlanta missed the postseason for the first time since 2017 and posted their fewest wins (72) since that 2017 season.

It looked as if Atlanta’s 2025 campaign would begin on an inauspicious note for a second straight season before the year even started as two of their better players would not be on the opening day roster. Ace Spencer Strider suffered a left oblique (stomach) strain during a Spring Training game in March. Strider would begin the year on the injured list for a second straight season.

In March, MLB suspended starting outfielder Jurickson Profar for the entire 162-game season after his second positive test for performance-enhancing drugs (exogenous testosterone). Profar was also suspended for the first 80 games of last season after testing positive for human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG).

The unexpected losses of Spencer Strider and Jurickson Profar prior to the season has not deterred the Braves this year as it did a year ago. Atlanta is off to a magnificent start at 26-12. They are currently tied for the best record in MLB with the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs.

The biggest reason for Atlanta’s early season return to prominence is the tremendous production from their starting pitchers. Chris Sale, Bryce Elder (3-1, 2.02 ERA, 45 strikeouts in 8 starts), Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 7 starts), Martin Perez (2-2, 2.38 ERA, 24 strikeouts in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances) and Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 3.28 ERA, 23 strikeouts in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances) make up arguably the best starting rotation in MLB.

Atlanta’s 3.22 ERA ranks third in MLB and their 18 quality starts ranks fourth.

The Braves’ pitching staff should get a significant boost with the recent return of ace Spencer Strider. The 27-year-old, righty made his season debut last Sunday (May 3) at Colorado. Strider struck out 6 and gave up 3 earned runs over 3 1/3 innings in Atlanta’s 11-6 win. Strider was a bit rusty in his first start of the year, but his track record indicates he’ll turn things around and perform at an All-Star level.

Ageless superstar Chris Sale takes the mound tonight for Atlanta, The 37-year-old, 9-time All-Star has found the fountain of youth since signing a two-year, $38 million deal with the Braves in January 2024 at the age of 35. Sale appeared to be on the downside of his career, but he won the NL Cy Young Award in his debut season with the Braves in 2024.

Chris Sale is amassing another Cy Young worthy campaign this season as he enters tonight’s contest at 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 49:12 K:BB over 7 starts. Sale struck out a season-high 11 batters in his last start at Colorado on May 2.

Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the New York Yankees won 3 straight from 1998-2000. They captured the 2025 World Series crown in the most dramatic of fashions, winning Games 6 and 7 in Toronto after being on the brink of elimination. They won the do-or-die Game Seven 5-4 in 11 innings to capture the crown.

Since 2013, the Dodgers have been on an unprecedented run of dominance as they’ve won the National League West division in 12 of the last 13 seasons. They’ve won at least 90 games for 12 consecutive non-interrupted seasons.

Not surprisingly, Los Angeles signing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million deal prior to the 2024 season in December 2023 coincided with the team winning back-to-back titles. Ohtani’s contract was the richest in baseball history until Juan Soto(15-year, $765 million) topped it a year later in December 2024.

Shohei Ohtani was coming off an MVP season (.304, 44 HR, 95 RBI) with the Los Angeles Angels prior to signing with the Dodgers. In Ohtani’s first season as a Dodger, he compiled one of the greatest individual seasons in MLB history, hitting .310 with 54 homers, 130 RBI, 59 stolen bases, 38 doubles, 7 triples and 134 runs scored across 159 games. He was named the 2024 National League MVP.

In his first two seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani has won back-to-back National League MVP awards,  in addition to winning back-to-back World Series crowns. He has been named MVP (2021, 2023, 2024, 2025) in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Ohtani is also the first player in any major American sport (MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA) to win both an MVP and championship in each of his first two seasons with a team.

With Shohei Ohtani back for a third season, along with a star-studded cast of teammates, the Los Angeles Dodgers are aiming to pull off the rare three-peat. They’ll join the New York Yankees (1998-2000, 1949-1953, 1936-1939) and the Oakland A’s (1972-1974) as the only MLB teams to win three straight World Series crowns if they win it again this year. Entering the season, the Dodgers were the favorites to win the World Series at +190.

Despite winning the World Series for a second straight year and already boasting a loaded lineup, the Los Angeles Dodgers remained active in the free agent market. They signed slugger Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal in January. The 29-year-old, four-time All-Star established himself as one of MLB’s premier power hitters over the last 5 seasons with Houston and the Chicago Cubs.

After getting off to a 20-9 start, the Dodgers hit a rough patch about 10 days ago (April 28) when they lost four in a row and failed to score more than 2 runs in those four losses. Los Angeles’s usually potent lineup was unable generate runs. The Dodgers rebounded by combining for 20 runs in 2 wins at Houston in their previous series. The doormat Dodger bats were likely a blip in a long season.

The Dodgers look to be the most balanced team in MLB as they rank 1st in batting average (.273), 2nd in hits (344), 4th in homers (50), 5th in runs scored (196). On the pitching side, they rank 1st in WHIP (1.09) and quality starts (22), 2nd in ERA (3.16) and 10th in strikeouts (327).

When you factor in Mookie Betts’ prolonged absence — he’s been out since April 4 with a strained right oblique, along with the somewhat slow starts from stars like Teoscar Hernandez (4 HR in 31 gms), Freddie Freeman (3 HR in 35 gms) Kyle Tucker (4 HR in 36 gms) and Will Smith (2 HR in 31 gms), the Dodgers will likely be a lot better later in the year. Which may be bad news for the rest of MLB.

Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani is back to being a full-time starting pitcher after a shoulder procedure in September 2023 limited him to just hitting in his debut season with the Dodgers in 2024, and a part-time starter last year. He’s been fantastic as a starter this year, posting a 2-2 record with an MLB-leading 0.97 ERA and 42:9 K;BB across 6 starts.

Atlanta has arguably the MLB’s best pitcher taking the mound tonight in Chris Sale, but I think the reigning back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers will view this as a statement game, and give a playoff-like effort in front of a capacity crowd of 56,000 at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles has also dominated Atlanta in recent meetings, winning 7 of the last 8 and 7 in a row at home. Take the Dodgers on the Moneyline!