NBA Playoff Picks 5/3 – Raptors @ Cavs

The first-round of the Eastern Conference playoffs continues tonight with a win-or-go home Game 7 as the fifth-seeded Toronto Raptors (46-36 in the regular season) visit the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) at Rocket Arena on NBC. Toronto forced a Game 7 after picking up a dramatic 112-110 overtime victory in Game 6 on Friday night in Toronto.

This playoff series between Toronto and Cleveland has taken a different path from the regular-season matchups as Toronto won all three contests by double digits. The three regular season meetings all took place before Thanksgiving (Nov. 27). The home team has won every game in this series.

Cleveland is an 8-point favorite and the total is 211.5

Toronto is playing in a Game 7 for the first time (in a non-interrupted season) since the 2019 Eastern Conference Semifinals when Kawhi Leonard’s iconic buzzer-beater lifted the Raptors to a 92-90 win over the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors would go on to win the franchise’s only NBA Championship.

Cleveland’s last Game 7 occurred nearly two years ago to the day (May 5, 2024) when they knocked off visiting Orlando 106-94. That Orlando-Cleveland series was strikingly similar to this one as Cleveland was the fourth-seed and the home team won every game of the series.

The Raptors and Cavaliers are meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time. They met three straight times in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Cleveland dominated Toronto winning in 6 games in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals and picking up back-to-back sweeps in the 2017 and 2018 Eastern Conference Semifinals (2nd round).

Toronto succumbed to the stellar play of superstar LeBron James in all three of those playoff series losses. LeBron was given the nickname “LeBronto” due to his domination of Toronto for three straight years in the postseason.

Cleveland entered the series as overwhelming favorites (-900) to advance past the upstart Toronto Raptors in the opening round. The disparity of playoff experience between the teams played a huge role in the series price, Cleveland was making its fourth straight playoff appearance, while Toronto was making its first playoff appearance since 2022.

Toronto was dealt a tough blow prior to the playoffs when starting point guard Immanuel Quickley strained his right hamstring in the regular-season finale against Brooklyn. After missing the first two games of the series, Toronto ruled out Quickley for the entire series. Quickley was outstanding during the regular season, averaging 16.9 points, a career-best 5.9 assists and 4 rebounds in 70 games.

It looked as if Cleveland was on its way to making easy work of Toronto after picking up double-digit wins in Games 1 and 2 at home. The Cavs won 126-113 in Game One on April 19. The Raptors were relatively competitive in the first half trailing by 7 (61-54) at halftime, but the Cavs pulled away in the third quarter outscoring Toronto 36-22 and building a 21-point lead (97-76) heading into the final frame before coasting to the easy win.

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points (11-20 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 6-7 FT) and added 2 steals across 31 minutes for Cleveland in the win. James Harden registered 22 points (8-18 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 assists and 2 steals, while Max Strus poured in 24 points (8-10 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT) in 24 minutes off the bench. RJ Barrett led Toronto with 24 points (7-13 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 7-9 FT).

Cleveland won Game Two 115-105. The Cavs never trailed in this one and maintained a double-digit lead through most of the game. Donovan Mitchell was the game’s leading scorer again finishing with 30 points (13-23 FG, 4-10 3Pt), along with 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal across 37 minutes. James Harden added 28 points (9-14 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 7-10 FT), 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 5 steals, while Evan Mobley tallied 25 points (11-13 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-3 FT) and 8 rebounds.

Cleveland’s Game Two victory against Toronto was their 12th straight postseason win against them, which matched an NBA record.

The series shifted to Toronto for Game Three on April 23 with the Raptors in an 0-2 hole and looking to break their 12-game postseason losing streak against Cleveland. After a nip-and-tuck game through three quarters where Toronto was holding on to an 83-81 lead, the Raptors bulldozed Cleveland in the fourth quarter outscoring them by 20 (43-23) to pick up an easy 126-104 victory. The Raptors hit 8 of 9 three-pointers in the fourth quarter.

Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett each scored 33 points for Toronto in the Game Two win. Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles added 22 points (11-15 FG) and 8 rebounds off the bench. Jamson Battle scored all 14 of his points in the fourth quarter off the bench. Battle made all five of his shots from the floor, including 4 three-pointers. The win ended Toronto’s dubious 12-game postseason losing streak to Cleveland.

Game Three saw Toronto pull off a stunning comeback to defeat Cleveland 93-89 and even the series at 2. In a game where both teams struggled mightily from the floor — Cleveland shot 37 percent, while Toronto shot 32 percent — the Cavs took an 84-76 lead with 4:55 remaining. An 8-point lead appeared to be insurmountable due to the poor shooting of both teams. But continued dismal shooting from Cleveland, along with careless turnovers allowed Toronto to end the game on a 17-5 run and emerge victorious.

Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram both finished with a team-high of 23 points for Toronto in the win. Barnes added 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks. Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles produced another fantastic game off the bench registering a double-double of 15 points and 10 rebounds, along with 3 assists and 2 steals. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with 20 points.

Cleveland returned home for a pivotal Game 5 looking to take a 3-2 lead. Unlike the first two games in Cleveland, the Cavs found themselves trailing for much of the game before rallying for a 125-120 win. Toronto jumped out to a 22-10 lead and led 74-67 at the half. The Raptors scored the first 5 points of the third quarter and extended the lead to 12 (79-67) before Cleveland rallied to pull within 103-100 by the close of the quarter.

Dennis Schroder scored 11 of Cleveland’s 25 fourth quarter points off the bench, which sparked the Cavs’ victory. Schroder finished the game with 19 points (7-11 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT) in 21 minutes. James Harden and Evan Mobley each recorded 23 points and 9 rebounds. Mobley also had 3 blocks. RJ Barrett registered team-highs of 25 points (9-19 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 5-9 FT) and 12 rebounds, along 5 assists for Toronto in the loss.

Toronto’s star swingman Brandon Ingram left the game in the second quarter due to right heel inflammation. He scored 1 point in 11 minutes of action. The injury prevented Ingram from playing in Game 6 two nights later in Toronto on May 1.

Toronto returned home for Game 6, looking to stave off elimination without the services of its top regular-season scorer Brandon Ingram (21.5 ppg). Ingram joins fourth-leading regular-season scorer Immanuel Quickley (16.9 ppg) on the bench in street clothes for Game 6.

Despite missing two of their top four scorers, Toronto was able to gut out a 112-110 overtime win against Cleveland and force a Game 7. RJ Barrett’s three-pointer with 1.2 seconds left proved to be the game-winning shot. Barrett’s decisive basket clanked off the back of the rim and bounced high in the air before falling through the rim with 1.2 seconds left.

Cleveland appeared to have the momentum heading into overtime after rallying from an 11-point deficit (96-85) early in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 104 after an Evan Mobley basket. Toronto guard Jamal Shead missed a fadeaway jumper at the buzzer. After tying the game at the end of regulation, Mobley missed a three-pointer at the buzzer that could have won the game for Cleveland.

In addition to hitting the game-winner in overtime, RJ Barrett scored 24 points (8-21 FG, 4-12 3Pt, 4-5 FT) and grabbed 9 rebounds in 43 minutes, while superstar Scottie Barnes amassed 25 points (11-21 FG, 3-4 FT), 14 assists, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks across 48 minutes. Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles was excellent off the bench again, recording 17 points (6-10 FG, 5-6 FT), 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 40 minutes. The South Carolina product is having a breakout series.

The unsung hero for Toronto was Ja’Kobe Walter — starting in place of injured Brandon Ingram — who finished with a season-best 24 points (7-13 FG, 4-9 3Pt, 6-6 FT), along with 5 rebounds, 3 steals and a block over 43 minutes. He scored 20 points in Toronto’s in Game 5 at Cleveland

Evan Mobley registered team-highs of 26 points (9-15 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 5-8 FT) and 14 rebounds for Cleveland in the loss.

For Toronto, the marvelous play of RJ Barrett may be the headline of the series so far. The 25-year-old Duke product is averaging team-highs of 24.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.7 threes per game on 50.5 percent shooting from the floor and 42.1 percent shooting from long distance in 6 games against the Cleveland. His numbers are up significantly from the regular season where he averaged 19.9 points and 5.3 rebounds per game.

Two-time All-Star Scottie Barnes (24.2 ppg, 9 asts, 5.7, 1.8 blks, 1.3 stls, 50% from 2) and rookie forward Collin Murray-Boyles (15.5 ppg, 6.8 rebs, 1.2 stls, 1.2 blks, 66.1% from 2) have also been tremendous in this series. Barnes made the All-Star team for the second time in his career this season. Toronto selected Murray-Boyles 9th overall (South Carolina) in the 2025 NBA Draft and he’s been a key reason why Toronto has been able to extend the heavily-favored Cavs to a Game 7.

Much like RJ Barrett, Collin Murray-Boyles’ postseason numbers are also up significantly from the 8.5 points and 5 rebounds he averaged across 57 regular-season games. Whether Toronto wins or loses tonight, Murray-Boyles should be much-improved next season and will likely have an increased role with the team going forward. His ability to impact the game on offense and defense is invaluable.

With Immanuel Quickley missing the entire series and Brandon Ingram missing most of Game 5 and all of Game 6, the increased production from RJ Barrett and Collin Murray-Boyles has been crucial for the Raptors.

For Cleveland, the decreased production of its core group of players — particularly Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen — has been a glaring issue in this series against the Raptors. Evan Mobley (19 ppg, 8.8 rebs, 1 blk, 56.8% from 2) is the one player who is performing at or near his regular season averages. This is likely the reason the heavily-favored Cavs are now in a do-or-die Game 7 against an inexperienced Toronto team.

Cleveland added veteran superstar James Harden at the trade deadline in hopes that he could get them over the hump and bring a second championship to Cleveland. Struggling in the first-round against the inexperienced and somewhat hobbled Toronto Raptors is not what people envisioned for this Cleveland team.

If Cleveland does win tonight, the path to the NBA Finals got easier after the second-seeded and Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics were upset by the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers 109-100 in Game 7 last night. This series could be viewed as just a minor setback for the Cavs if they go on to make a deep playoff run.

Despite the inconsistency of its star players, I expect Donovan Mitchell to deliver a big-time performance in this spot. Mitchell has a career postseason average of 27.9 ppg across 69 games. I also believe the injuries will finally catch up to the pesky Raptors tonight. Lay the Points and take the Cavaliers!