NBA Playoff Picks 5/11: Thunder @ Lakers

The Western Conference Semifinals continue tonight with the top-seeded and defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18 in the regular season) visiting the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) at crypto.com Arena on Amazon Prime. Oklahoma City holds a commanding 3-0 series lead and will look to complete the four-game sweep in Los Angeles.

If Oklahoma City wins tonight, they’ll improve to 8-0 against Los Angeles for the entire season. The Thunder swept all four games against the Lakers in the regular season. Oklahoma City’s postseason record would also improve to 8-0 with a victory tonight, as they swept the Phoenix Suns in the first-round prior to facing the Lakers.

The Thunder are the sixth reigning champion in NBA history to start the postseason 7-0 or better. The 2016-17 Cleveland Cavaliers are the last reigning champ to do it. They started that postseason 10-0.

Oklahoma City is a 10-point favorite and the total is 214.5.

Entering the series, the defending NBA champion Thunder were overwhelming favorites (-2000) to advance past the undermanned Lakers. Oklahoma City obliterated the Lakers during the regular season, winning all four matchups by an average margin of 29.3 points. The Thunder won the final two regular season games against the Lakers by 43 points (139-96) and 36 points (123-87) points, respectively.

The fact that Lakers superstar and leading scorer Luka Doncic (NBA-leading 33.5 ppg) was likely to miss the entire series made their chances of upsetting the Thunder even more daunting. A short-handed Lakers squad did eliminate Houston 4-2 in the first round as 41-year-old LeBron James was able to deliver a vintage performance over the six games. The increased production from several of Los Angeles’s supporting cast (Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard) was also pivotal in eliminating Houston.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, the scrappiness and relentless defense that befuddled the Houston Rockets in the opening round of the playoffs has not worked against the juggernaut Thunder in the conference semis. Oklahoma City’s mastery of Los Angeles has continued in this postseason series.

The Thunder took the series opener 108-90 on May 5. The Lakers were highly competitive for most of the game as they were within 4 points (69-65) at the 6:40 mark of the third quarter. But Oklahoma City’s depth, elite defense, and size advantage were just too much for Los Angeles to overcome. The Thunder would easily thwart every comeback attempt that the Lakers made.

Chet Holmgren scored a team-high 24 points (9-17 FG, 2-2 3Pt, 4-4 FT) and added 12 rebounds and 3 blocks for Oklahoma City in the win. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 18 points (8-15 FG, 2-3 FT), 6 assists, and 2 blocks. Gilgeous-Alexander was held below 20 points for the first time this season, and the Thunder still emerged with an easy win.

LeBron James poured in a game-high 27 points (12-17 FG, 3-6 3Pt) for the Lakers in the loss. The Lakers getting a vintage performance from LeBron James in Game 1, while limiting reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a season-low 18 points, and still losing by 18 points foretold the difficulties they were going to have with Oklahoma City.

Oklahoma City picked up two more convincing wins in Games 2 and 3, winning 125-107 in Game 2 and 131-108 in Game 3. The Lakers actually led at the half of both games — 58-57 in Game 2 and 59-57 in Game 3. But Oklahoma City’s remarkable efficiency and stout defense were too much for the scrappy Lakers to overcome.

After the Game Three loss, the Lakers became the first team in NBA history to lead at halftime of back-to-back playoff games and then lose both games by a combined 40+ points. That dubious distinction for the Lakers really shows the omnipotence of Oklahoma City, especially when you consider the Thunder were without Jalen Williams (hamstring) — who was their second-leading scorer during the regular season and an All-Star last year.

Oklahoma City’s continued dominance of the Los Angeles Lakers is the headline of this series. They are now 7-0 against the Lakers, with 6 of the wins decided by 18 points or more. The Thunder throttling the Lakers while getting somewhat pedestrian efforts from reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be highly concerning for whoever faces them — San Antonio or Minnesota — next in the Conference Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 ppg in the regular season but is averaging 21 ppg in this series against the Lakers.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the series is the play of emerging star Ajay Mitchell. The second-year, UC Santa Barbara product is averaging 20.7 points and 6.7 assists per game while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor against the Lakers in this series. He had 24 points, 10 assists and 3 steals in OKC’s Game 3 win at Los Angeles. Mitchell has started every game in place of injured star Jalen Williams (hamstring), and is almost mirroring his production.

Ajay Mitchell’s breakout performance — 6.5 ppg as a rookie to 13.6 ppg this year — in the regular season was aided by the injury-riddled campaign for Jalen Williams, who missed 49 games due to an assortment of injuries. The same thing has happened for Mitchell in the postseason. Williams has missed 5 straight playoff games and is out for tonight’s contest.

Oklahoma City star center Chet Holmgen has also been excellent in this series against the Lakers. The 7-foot-1, All-Star is averaging 21.3 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1.6 steals and 1.6 threes per game on 59.5 percent shooting from the floor and 45.5 percent shooting from long distance in the Thunder’s three wins.

LeBron James continues to defy father time and is playing well against Oklahoma City, albeit in a losing effort. The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer is averaging 23 points, 6.6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 threes and 1.6 steals per game on 51.8 percent shooting from the floor in the first three games. LeBron is the team’s leading scorer in this series against the Thunder and in the entire postseason.

With LeBron James set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season, he could be playing his last game as a Laker tonight. A return to Cleveland is rumored to be a preferred destination for LeBron if he departs from the Lakers. There’s also speculation that LeBron is contemplating retiring after the season, so tonight may be LeBron’s final NBA game.

If the Lakers do lose tonight and their season ends in a sweep, it should be an interesting offseason for the Purple and Gold. Los Angeles seemed to lack cohesion for much of the regular season, which caused some observers to believe that LeBron should be jettisoned after the season, so the team could build around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

But a torrid stretch beginning in early-March where the Lakers won 9 in a row and 13 of 14 provided optimism for the Lakers’ postseason hopes due to the trio of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James finally meshing together. Those hopes were dashed during a 139-96 loss at Oklahoma City on April 2 where Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) both suffered season-ending injuries. It was feared that Doncic and Reaves would miss the entire first-round of the playoffs. Reaves returned for Game Four against Houston, while Doncic has yet to play in the postseason and is unlikely to return, even if the Lakers can extend this series.

LeBron James turning back the clock and resembling his All-NBA form throughout the 2026 NBA Playoffs in the absence of Luka Doncic may have the Lakers leaning towards retaining him, and seeing if the Luka-LeBron-Austin Reaves trio can elevate Los Angeles to ranks of the Western Conference elite teams like San Antonio and Oklahoma City next year.

In the 7 games between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles this year, the Lakers have barely been competitive. I don’t see why anything changes tonight, Lay the Points and take the Thunder!