NFL picks 12/20: Packers @ Bears

Green Bay Packers

@

Chicago Bears

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Chicago and Green Bay deliver another classic NFC North showdown on Saturday night — a game that will shape the division and playoff picture. The Bears are listed as narrow favorites at Chicago -1.5 with the market setting the total at 46.5 (DraftKings / FanDuel lines).

Team Analysis

Green Bay

• Season overview and recent form: The Packers sit at 9-4-1 entering this primetime tilt after a hard-fought 34-26 loss at Denver that featured multiple injuries and defensive breaks.
• Injury and roster notes: Green Bay placed star edge rusher Micah Parsons on injured reserve after a non-contact knee injury believed to be a torn ACL in Denver, a major loss for their pass rush.
• Depth moves: The Packers activated defensive end Brenton Cox Jr. off IR to help replace pass-rush snaps and downgraded Collin Oliver to out for the game.
• Match shape: Offensively Jordan Love and the run game (led by Josh Jacobs) remain the engine; defensively the unit must cope without Parsons and with questions at secondary rotation after recent injuries.

Chicago

• Season overview and recent form: The Bears are 10-4, riding momentum from a dominant 31-3 win over the Browns and a six-in-seven stretch that has them controlling the NFC North.
• Offensive identity: Rookie Caleb Williams continues to steady the attack while the ground game with D’Andre Swift has been a reliable complement; Chicago runs a high-volume offense that averages among the league leaders in plays per game.
• Injury picture: The Bears were hit by receiver losses — Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III were ruled out for this matchup, forcing more targets onto DJ Moore and tight ends like Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was reported to be activated from IR this week, bolstering Chicago’s linebacker room.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This rivalry is historic — Green Bay holds the all-time series edge and has been dominant in recent years, but many recent meetings are one-score affairs; nine of the last 13 Soldier Field clashes were decided by single digits.
• Important player matchups:

– Jordan Love vs. Bears pass rush — with Parsons out, Green Bay’s pressure package loses its top threat; sustained pass protection vs. Chicago front-seven will dictate Love’s time to throw. – Caleb Williams vs. Packers secondary — Williams’ decision-making and turnover avoidance will be huge with Chicago missing top WRs; the Packers still defend the deep ball well when rush generates pressure.

• Key Injuries and news: Micah Parsons’ season-ending knee injury is the marquee development for Green Bay; Chicago’s losses of Odunze and Burden alter target distribution and reduce explosive passing options.
• Home/away splits: Chicago’s Soldier Field is a tougher environment late in the year; the Bears are 5-1 at home on the season, while Green Bay has bounced between home and road in recent weeks.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market’s Chicago -1.5 reflects home-field edge plus Green Bay’s injury depletion on defense; books show a tight moneyline handle and split public perception, with several shops pegging Green Bay as a toss-up favorite earlier in the week before lines tightened to Chicago.
• Total (46.5) analysis: Both teams have had games go over this number with frequency — Packers games have hit the over often this season and Chicago’s offense runs a high-play tempo. With Chicago missing two primary receivers, the Bears may lean more on the run, but Green Bay’s defensive struggles inside and Chicago’s offensive creativity still point to a game that leans toward the over.
• Best value opportunities:

– Fade or hedge early-market extremes: if you find Bears -1.5 at a better number (Chicago -2.5 or -3 earlier in week), lean small on the Bears given home advantage and Caleb Williams’ supporting cast. – Over 46.5 has edge value if D’Andre Swift is active; if Swift is out and Bears go run-heavy with a short-field plan, consider pivoting to the under. Monitor Swift’s game status very late.

• Prediction: This is a one-score, low-variance divisional game. With Green Bay significantly weakened up front and Chicago at home even without Odunze/Burden, I expect a tight Bears win — scoring pushes around the mid-20s for both clubs and the total flirting with the number. Final projected score: Bears 24, Packers 21.
• Final pick: Chicago -1.5 (small unit). Play the Over 46.5 as a correlated second leg only if D’Andre Swift is active in the official game-day report; otherwise trim exposure to the total and prefer the spread.

Closing: This matchup is a classic divisional tug-of-war where injuries and depth will decide the result — follow late practice reports (Swift, Packers’ secondary/inactive lists) and shop the market for better juice; Wannamakeabet’s points-based system favors the narrow Bears cover in this spot.