NFL picks 12/20: Eagles @ Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles

@

Washington Commanders

By Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Philadelphia visits Washington on Saturday, December 20 (5:00 PM UTC) in a Week 16 NFC East matchup that carries division implications for the Eagles and is a measuring stick for the rebuilding Commanders. The market has Philadelphia as a clear favorite with Washington getting +7 and a game total set at 44.5 (DraftKings).

Team Analysis

Philadelphia

• Season overview and recent form: Philadelphia enters Week 16 at 9-5 and riding momentum from a dominant 31-0 win in Week 15 that showcased a balanced offense and stingy defense.
• Key metrics: The Eagles rank among the NFL’s top defenses and sit near the top in overall efficiency, while offensively Jalen Hurts has thrown for~2,929 yards with 22 TDs and also contributes as a rusher.
• Injuries and availability: Philadelphia will be without stalwarts Lane Johnson (out) and Jalen Carter (out), while TE Cameron Latu and OT Cameron Williams are questionable; Saquon Barkley is expected to play and sits close to the 1,000-yard mark.

Washington

• Season overview and recent form: The Commanders are 4-10 and eliminated from playoff contention, but they snapped a losing skid with a 29-21 win over the Giants in Week 15 that showed life on offense under backup direction.
• Key metrics: Washington’s defense has struggled in pass defense (bottom-10 in passing yards allowed), while the offense ranks middling — they rely more on ground work and situational playmakers.
• Injuries and availability: The Commanders have officially shut down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season; Marcus Mariota will start the remaining games and Laremy Tunsil is listed out versus the Eagles.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: These NFC East rivals have recent heavyweight meetings — the Eagles routed Washington 55-23 in the NFC Championship earlier in 2025, a game that still resonates in the matchup narrative.
• Important player matchups:

– Jalen Hurts vs. Washington’s secondary: Hurts’ dual-threat skillset and the Eagles’ balanced attack will test a Commanders pass defense that ranks near the bottom vs. the pass. – Saquon Barkley vs. Washington front seven: Barkley (around 940 rush yards) provides a physical complement to Hurts and can help chew clock vs. a Commanders defense that surrenders chunk plays at times. – Marcus Mariota (starter) vs. Eagles pass rush: Mariota is experienced but inconsistent; his ability to avoid pressure with a limited offensive line (Tunsil out) will dictate Washington’s upside.

• Key injuries and news: Losing Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter dents the Eagles’ line and interior rush depth, but Washington’s decision to sit Jayden Daniels is the bigger storyline — QB downgrade impacts Washington’s playmaking ceiling.
• Home/away performance: Eagles have been solid on the road this season; Commanders are just 2-4 at home, making the home-field edge less decisive than usual.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market sits with Washington +7 and moneyline pricing heavily favors Philadelphia (Eagles -345 / Commanders +275 on several books), reflecting matchup and roster gaps. Shop the market — the spread opened closer to -6.5 and moved as news (Daniels out) and public money shifted.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The total is 44.5 — with both defenses capable of forcing low totals and Washington’s quarterback uncertainty, the game has contrarian under appeal, though Hurts’ ability to stack early drives could push it higher. Consider weather and pace: mid-40s temps and a tendency for Philly to control time of possession push toward under-trending scenarios.
• Best value opportunities:

– Play the Eagles -7 if line holds or dips (PHI’s roster depth, offensive efficiency vs. WSH defensive lapses is exploitable). – Consider small-unit under 44.5 on a buy-low given Mariota’s conservative game plan and Philly’s clock-control identity when Barkley is active.

• Prediction: I expect Philadelphia to win and cover the spread. The Eagles’ defense should generate pressure and Hurts/Barkley will sustain drives that keep Marcus Mariota under pressure with missing pieces on Washington’s line. Final expected score range: Eagles 27, Commanders 16 — a game that leans low-scoring relative to the public over sentiment.
• Final pick: Bet: Eagles -7 (spread); secondary lean: Under 44.5 (small unit). These align with Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system which favors matchup edges, quarterback health, and line movement.