NFL Picks 10/11 – Giants @ Commanders

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Long time, NFC East rivals meet in a pivotal Week Five matchup, as the surprising, first-place New York Giants (3-1) visit the Washington Commanders (1-3) at Northwest Stadium on Fox. A victory for the Giants could establish them as the top dog in the NFC East due to the inconsistent play and possible internal turmoil going on with division favorites Philadelphia and Dallas. A win for Washington could salvage their season because injuries and subpar play has them on the verge of spiraling downward for a second straight year.

This will be the first of two regular season meetings between Washington and New York. They’ll meet for a final time on Nov. 22 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Washington has won four in a row against New York. 

Washington is a 4-point favorite and the total is 41.5. 

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN WEEK 4

New York outlasted the Arizona Cardinals 36-24 at home last Sunday in a back-and-forth shootout. The Giants overcame an 11-point, first quarter deficit (14-3) to pull out the win. Veteran quarterback Jameis Winston displayed his customary Jekyll and Hyde traits in New York’s win, passing for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns, while throwing two puzzling interceptions. Winston was making his second start of the year in place of second-year, franchise quarterback Jaxson Dart, who suffered a season-ending knee (PCL/MCL) injury in a Week 2 loss at the Los Angeles Rams. 

Star wideout Malik Nabers caught 6 passes for a game-high 112 yards and a touchdown for the Giants. Fellow wideout Malachi Fields and tight end Theo Johnson also caught touchdown passes.

Arizona seemed poised to pull out a last-second victory when they had 2nd & Goal at the NYG 4 with 18 seconds left, but cornerback Deonte Banks picked off Jacoby Brissett’s pass and returned it 98-yards for a touchdown on the final play of the game to seal a Giants victory.

Washington suffered a 30-13 setback against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday in London. Washington led 6-0 at the end of the first quarter, but quarterback Marcus Mariota — who was starting in place of the injured Jayden Daniels — left the game during Washington’s second offensive possession in the first quarter due to a knee injury after a sack. Mariota never returned to the game and was replaced by third-string rookie quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who was making his first appearance in an NFL game. 

Washington was never able to get on track on offense or defense after Marcus Mariota’s knee injury. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis did throw the first touchdown pass of his NFL career — a 47-yarder to Treylon Burks — early in the third quarter that pulled Washington to within 17-13. Unfortunately, Washington would not score another point. Kaliakmanis finished 15 of 33 passes for 186 with a touchdown and an interception. 

 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Over the past 9 seasons (2017-2025), the once-proud New York Giants franchise has posted just one winning season — a 9-7-1 mark in 2022. New York appeared to be on the right track after drafting a terrific trio of skill position players in LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers (sixth overall – 2024), Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart (26th overall – 2025) and Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo (105th overall-2025).

All three players were excellent in their respective rookie years. Malik Nabers totaled 109 receptions for 1,204 yards with 7 touchdowns in 2024. While Cam Skattebo (410 rushing yards, 207 receiving yards, 7 total TDs in 8 gms) and Jaxson Dart (2,272 pass yards, 15 TD to 5 INT, 487 rush yards, 9 rush TD in 14 gms) registered standout rookie debuts last year.

But in a stroke of horrific luck, all three players — Malik Nabers (knee – Sept. 2025), Cam Skattebo (leg/ankle – Oct. 2025) and Jaxson Dart (Sept. 2026) have suffered devastating leg injuries since getting off to promising starts as rookies. It appeared as if the injuries were going to derail the 2025 and 2026 seasons due to the fact that Nabers and Skattebo going down played a big part in New York finishing 4-13 last year. Both players returned in 2026, only to see Dart suffer a season-ending injury. 

Jaxson Dart suffered his season-ending knee injury in Week 2 — during a listless 28-6 loss at the Los Angeles Rams — after the Giants began the year with an encouraging 28-20 victory against the Dallas Cowboys at home on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Most observers expected doom and gloom for the Giants after Dart went down, but they’ve gone 2-0 since the erratic Jameis Winston replaced Dart. 

The 32-year-old Jameis Winston entered the NFL with lofty expectations after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick (Florida State) in the 2015 NFL draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston always displayed a big arm, but his decision-making and awareness somewhat stifled his NFL career, which is why the New York Giants are his fourth team over 12 NFL seasons. Winston has 116 interceptions across 111 career games.

Shortly after Jaxson Dart was declared out for the season, New York traded for Minnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy on Sept. 28 to add depth and possibly take over the starting quarterback position. The Vikings selected the 23-year-old McCarthy with the 10th overall pick (Michigan) in the 2024 NFL draft. After suffering a season-ending injury in the preseason during his rookie year, McCarthy struggled in year two (2025) and was regulated to the third-string quarterback this season. McCarthy’s struggles led to the Vikings moving on from him after just 2 full seasons. 

JJ McCarthy will get a fresh start with the Giants, as he’ll be Jameis Winston’s back up going forward. With Winston’s up-and-down history, McCarthy could get another shot at starting for the Giants this season.

The Giants hired the highly-credentialed John Harbaugh as its coach in the offseason. Harbaugh compiled a stellar 18-year tenure (2008-2025) with the Baltimore Ravens where he compiled a 180-113 (.613) record and won a Super Bowl — XLVII (47) — during the 2012-13 season. He made the postseason in 12 of his 18 seasons as Ravens head coach and won 6 AFC North division titles.

New York expects John Harbaugh to change the losing culture that has engulfed the franchise. The Giants have lost double-digit games in 10 of the last 12 seasons. So far, things are looking good for Harbaugh, as the Giants seem to be handling the adversity of losing their franchise quarterback Jaxson Dart in Week 2 by winning two straight games since his injury. 

GAME STORYLINES: WASHINGTON

On April 25, 2024, the Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick. He won the 2023 Heisman Trophy Award. Daniels went on to amass an extraordinary rookie year with Washington where he threw for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions on 69% completions, while rushing for a rookie quarterback record 891 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Daniels was named the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

In addition to Jayden Daniels’ exemplary individual rookie year exploits, he led Washington to a 12-5 record and the NFC Championship Game — where they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington’s 12 wins and trip to the NFC Title game was its highest win total and deepest playoff run since 1991, which indicates how far the franchise had fallen over the previous 30+ years. The future for Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders appeared to be limitless.

Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of unbridled optimism brought on by the pristine play of Jayden Daniels in 2024 has evaporated. Ever since Daniels’ revered rookie season ended on Jan. 27, 2025, he’s been ravaged by injuries for nearly 21 straight months and counting. It started with Daniels suffering a knee injury in Week 2 of the 2025 season at Green Bay that kept him out for 2 games. That was followed by a hamstring strain at Dallas in Week 7. After missing a game with the hamstring injury, Daniels suffered a gruesome dislocated left elbow injury during a 38-14 loss to Seattle at home in Week 9 on Nov. 2, which ended his 2025 season.

After his record-setting rookie season in 2024, Jayden Daniels’ second season saw with him start and finish only 5 of Washington’s 17 games. Washington’s record plummeted from 12-5 in 2024 to 5-12 in 2025 due to Daniels’ recurring injuries. And to make things worse, Jayden Daniels dislocated the same left elbow in Week 2 at Dallas this season which caused him to miss Washington’s last 2 games.

Jayden Daniels will return to the field today against the New York Giants with a brace on his left elbow and no limitations. He elected not to have surgery on the left elbow in order to expedite his recovery. Daniels will be making just his 10th start over Washington’s last 25 games.

During the offseason, Washington added veteran wideout Stefon Diggs. Signing with Washington marked a homecoming for the 32-year-old, 4-time pro bowler who is a Washington D.C. area (Maryland) native that attended the University of Maryland before being drafted in 2015 by the Minnesota Vikings. Diggs has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in 7 consecutive seasons when he’s played a full allotment of games. He’ll miss today’s game with a hamstring injury.

 

THE PICK: GIANTS (+4)

The return of star quarterback Jayden Daniels should be a huge boost for Washington, but I’ve got to see Daniels start at least 3 consecutive games without getting injured before I can trust the Commanders. John Harbaugh appears to have instantly changed the losing culture in New York/East Rutherford. Take the Points…Giants 20, Commanders 17!