MLB Picks 8/31 – Astros

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

A pair of division “leaders” open a four-game series tonight as the American League Central-leading Chicago White Sox (72-64) visit the American League West-leading Houston Astros (69-68) at Daikan Park. This will be the second series meeting and fourth head-to-head matchup between the White Sox and Astros in 2026. Houston took two of three from host Chicago when the teams first met in late July. The Astros have won four of the last five against the White Sox.

The White Sox and Astros would be nowhere near first place if they competed in any of the other four divisions. But as the old adage in sports goes, everyone starts at 0-0 when the playoffs start. So, they would have as good a shot as any of the other 10 teams who will qualify for the postseason to advance and win the World Series.

Chicago dropped a 5-1 decision at Minnesota yesterday in the series finale. The loss prevented a three-game sweep for the White Sox, and halted their four-game winning streak. Rookie left fielder Sam Antonacci finished 2-for-4 and scored a run in the loss for Chicago. 

Houston picked up a 6-3 victory against the Mets in New York yesterday. Lamonte Wade Jr.’s pinch-hit, two-run homer in the sixth inning gave the Astros a 4-3 lead and propelled them to the win. Jeremy Pena connected on a solo homer for Houston; he finished 2-for-5 with 2 RBI. The Astros won two of three against the Mets in the series. They completed a 4-2 road trip through New York. They took two of three against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium prior to facing the Mets. 

Tonight’s starters are Anthony Kay (9-6, 4.09 ERA, 108 strikeouts in 25 starts and 2 relief appearances) for Chicago and Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA, 125 strikeouts in 23 starts) for Houston. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Chicago (+112),   Houston (-135)

Run Line: Chicago +1.5 (-186),   Houston -1.5 (+153)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-104),   under 8.5 (-115)

GAME STORYLINES: CHICAGO

Over the last three seasons (2023-2025), the Chicago White Sox put up putrid records of 61-101 (2023), 41-121 (2024) and 60-102 (2025). Chicago’s 41-121 mark in 2024 set an MLB-record for the most losses in the modern era — 1900 to the present. Management’s decision to ship off star players (Dylan Cease, Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, Luis Robert Jr. Andrew Vaughn) and start from scratch beginning in the 2023 season led to Chicago’s steep decline.

Chicago got somewhat of a reprieve in the offseason when they unexpectedly landed highly-regarded Japanese superstar slugger Munetaka Murakami as a free agent. The White Sox inked Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal in December. Murakami was expected to sign a large contract with one of MLB’s big spenders after amassing a stellar career in Japan where he hit 264 homers over 8 seasons since making his debut as an 18-year-old for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in 2018. 

Despite Munetaka Murakami’s prolific production in Japan for 8 seasons (2018-2025), MLB teams became hesitant to sign the then-25-year-old superstar to a long-term deal due to concerns over his strike out rate and defense. This allowed Chicago to come out of nowhere and nab Murakami at a bargain.

The addition of Munetaka Murakami is turning out to be a godsend for the White Sox because he’s been better than advertised, which has led to a stunning turnaround for the team. The 26-year-old slugger is compiling a superb debut MLB season hitting .218 with 29 homers, 58 RBI and 77 walks across 101 games. Murakami’s numbers would be even better if he didn’t miss 35 games — which included the entire month of June — due to a Grade 2 right hamstring strain.

Munetaka Murakami’s arrival has expedited Chicago’s rebuild as they were unlikely to add an elite power hitter of his caliber anytime soon unless they developed one in their minor league system, and that may have taken years to happen. He’d likely be in the AL MVP discussion if it weren’t for the hamstring injury. Murakami was selected as an All-Star this year but was unable to participate due to the injury.

The young trio of 26-year-old third baseman and first-time All-Star Miguel Vargas (.249, 29 HR, 76 RBI, 30 doubles, 84 walks in 134 gms), 24-year-old shortstop Colson Montgomery (.211, 28 HR, 76 RBI in 128 gms) and 25-year-old second baseman Chase Meirdoth (.271, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 26 doubles in 130 gms), along with veteran designated hitter Andrew Benintendi (.249, 14 HR, 69 RBI in 119 gms) are also registering outstanding seasons for a much-improved White Sox offense. 

Chicago’s 652 runs scored leads the American League. They rank 4th in MLB in homers (180), 6th in slugging percentage (.410) and 8th in on-base plus slugging (.739). To illustrate how much Chicago’s offense has improved, they’ve already surpassed their home run (165) and runs scored (647) totals from last year.

Chicago’s improvement as a team overall has been remarkable as they enter tonight’s game at 72-64 and hold a 3.5 game lead over the second-place Cleveland Guardians. Chicago won a total of 60 games in 2025, they eclipsed 60 wins on Aug. 9 this season when they improved to 61-56. The White Sox are on pace to finish with an 86-76 record, which would be a 26-game improvement over last season. 

 

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

From 2017-2024, the Houston Astros went on an unparalleled 7-year run of success where they won the American League West division for 7 straight full seasons. They finished 29-31 in the COVID-reduced 2020 season, but their track record suggests they likely would’ve won the division if they played an entire 162-game season. Over those 7 seasons, the Astros won the World Series in 2017 and 2022 — the only World Series crowns in its franchise history. Houston also advanced to the ALCS for 6 straight seasons from 2017-2022. 

It appeared as if Houston was well on its way to an 8th straight AL West crown — after a full season — last year, but a stunning late-season collapse that saw them suffer a 6-game losing streak over the final 10 days of the season that allowed the Seattle Mariners to overtake them and end their reign as AL West champs. The 6-game losing streak included a three-game sweep at home to Seattle. 

Houston’s somewhat disappointing season — they won just one fewer game (87) then they did in 2024 — a year ago could be attributed to injuries. The most devastating injury was to superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez, who missed nearly four months with a fractured right hand. He did return for the final 3 weeks of the season but was a shell of his former self, only connecting on 3 homers over his final 19 games. Alvarez missed a total of 114 games last season. 

During the offseason, the Astros allowed their workhorse star pitcher Framber Valdez to walk as a free agent. Valdez declined a one-year, $22 million qualifying offer from the Astros and signed a 3-year, $115 million with the Detroit Tigers. Valdez made two All-Star appearances with the Astros (2018, 2023) and compiled an 81-52 record in his 8 seasons with the team.

Despite the loss of Framber Valdez, Houston was still expected to be a formidable team with the return of a healthy Yordan Alvarez. Unfortunately, the Astros got off to a bad start this season mainly due to inconsistent pitching. Houston ranks 25th (out of 30 teams) in ERA (4.64) and Quality Starts (37), and 24th in WHIP (1.36). The absence of Valdez has been glaring this season as the Astros ranked in or near the top 10 in virtually every pitching category last year. 

Houston’s poor pitching played a big part in why they found themselves a season-worst 11 games under .500 (20-31) on May 20. Fortunately for the Astros, the entire American League West division is either struggling to get to .500 or well below .500. They likely would’ve been sellers at the deadline if they were in any other division.

It looked as if Houston was ready to run away with the American League West when they caught fire and one 11 of 12 contests over a two week stretch from July 20 through Aug. 2, where they went from 47-54 to 58-55. But they followed that up with more inconsistent results, highlighted by a bad 9-game homestand where they finished 3-6 against division opponents in the Mariners, Angels and Athletics. Going 2-4 against the lowly Angels (52-85) and Athletics (53-84) was particularly galling when you consider both are currently 30+ games under .500. 

The exemplary play of superstar outfielder Yordan Alvarez has been the saving grace for Houston this year. After an injury-plagued 2025 season, Alvarez is healthy and performing at an All-World level. The 29-year-old superstar slugger is batting .317 with 39 homers, 93 RBI, 93 walks and 28 doubles across 135 games. Alvarez’s 37 homers has tied his career-high which he set in 2022. 

Yordan Alvarez has an excellent shot at winning the American League Triple Crown as he leads the AL in batting average (.317) and RBI (93), and is tied for 1st in homers with 37. If Alvarez wins the AL Triple Crown, he’ll be the first to do it since Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera in 2012. 

THE PICK: ASTROS (-127)

After a 4-2 trip through New York City, I expect Houston to return home and carry that momentum tonight against the White Sox. Take the Astros on the Moneyline!