MLB Picks 8/25 – Dodgers @ Braves

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Two of MLB’s elite teams open a three-game series tonight as the National League West-leading and reigning back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers (80-51) visit the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves (76-55) at Truist Park on TBS. This will be the second and final regular series meeting between the division leaders. Atlanta took two of three from Los Angeles when the teams first met at Dodgers Stadium in early May. The teams could face off again in the divisional round or the NLCS in the playoffs.

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

Los Angeles is coming off a 4-0 shutout victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates at home on Sunday afternoon. Blake Snell struck out six over six scoreless innings to improve to 2-1 on the season. The 33-year-old, 11-year veteran Snell has given up just 2 earned runs in three starts since returning from the 60-day IL with an elbow injury on Aug. 11. He missed three months of action. Freddie Freeman went 2-for-4 and scored a run for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ victory completed a three-game sweep of the visiting Pirates. Los Angeles has won six games in a row. Tonight’s contest at Atlanta is the beginning of a six-game road trip for Los Angeles. They’ll face the Detroit Tigers in a highly-anticipated three-game set beginning on Aug. 28. Los Angeles’s series in Detroit will mark the return of reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, who was traded from Detroit to Los Angeles on Aug. 2.

Atlanta held on for a 4-2 win against the NL-leading Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday night. The game was part of the Little League Classic and played at Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Tyler Mahle (5-10) struck out 4 and gave up 1 earned run over 5 innings in picking up his fifth win of the year. Michael Harris II’s solo homer in the top of the ninth increased Atlanta’s lead to 4-2 and provided an insurance run for the Braves.

The Braves avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of Milwaukee with the win on Sunday. Atlanta returns home after a 7-game trip — 6 games were true road games; one was a neutral game in Williamsport, PA — where they finished 2-5. Tonight’s contest against the Dodgers begins a 7-game homestand for Atlanta. They’ll play three against Colorado and one against San Francisco after wrapping up with Los Angeles.

Sunday’s victory was Atlanta’s 76th of the season, which matches their win total from last year.

TONIGHT’S STARTERS

Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.72 ERA, 49 strikeouts in 7 starts) returns from the 60-day IL (back) to start for Los Angeles. He’ll be making his first start since May 6. Glasnow could be on a heavy workload restriction tonight. Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92 ERA, 113 strikeouts in 24 starts) takes the mound for Atlanta.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Los Angeles (-157), Atlanta (+130)

Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+113), Atlanta +1.5 (-136)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-105), under 8.5 (-114)

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers captured their second straight World Series crown after narrowly defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 in an exhilarating series. The Dodgers trailed 3-2 in the series before winning the final 2 games in Toronto — they won Game Seven 5-4 in 11 innings. The Dodgers became the first team to repeat since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000.

Los Angeles signing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to an astronomical 10-year, $700 million prior to the 2024 season — in December 2023 — is what precipitated winning back-to-back World Series crowns. Ohtani took home two American League MVPs (2021, 2023) with the Los Angeles Angels before signing with the Dodgers. He also established himself as an excellent pitcher during his 6 MLB seasons with the Angels. Ohtani underwent surgery for a torn UCL in his right elbow during his last season with the Angels in September 2023, which would limit him to just hitting for the Dodgers in 2024.

Shohei Ohtani continued his exemplary play with the Dodgers by capturing back-to-back National League MVPs in his first two years wearing Dodger Blue. Ohtani also smashed 50+ homers in both seasons with the Dodgers. He registered a historic season in 2024 becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. Ohtani connected on 54 homers last season.

With the overwhelming majority of its championship roster returning this year — along with the addition of free agent slugger Kyle Tucker (4-year, $240 million deal) — Los Angeles entered the year as the significant favorite to take home a third straight World Series title. And the season has gone according to plan as they enter tonight’s contest with the second-best record in MLB at 80-51 and they hold a commanding 9.5-game lead in the National League West over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers will win the NL West for the 13th time over the last 14 seasons.

In a case of the rich getting a lot richer, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline (Aug. 2) from the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers sent a trio of minor league prospects in outfielder Zihir Hope (No. 25 in MLB’s Pipeline Top 100 list), along with pitchers River Ryan (No. 68) and Brady Smith.

Detroit trading Tarik Skubal to the reigning back-to-back champion Los Angeles Dodgers set off a firestorm amongst MLB observers because they believed it gave the Dodgers an unfair competitive advantage as they were adding a superstar ace in Skubal to an already stacked team that is coming off back-to-back World Series crowns and owns the second-highest payroll in MLB. Skubal being an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season led to Detroit trading him. There is speculation that Skubal could return to Detroit as a free agent after the season.

Whether Tarik Skubal agrees to a multi-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the season or signs with another team, many feel Los Angeles’s ability to outspend or outbid everyone for the best players — such as Tarik Skubal — will lead to a labor dispute or work stoppage that could put the 2027 season in jeopardy. The owners want a hard salary cap implemented to prevent teams like the Dodgers (and New York Yankees) from being able to freely acquire the best players without much resistance. The MLB labor agreement expires on December 1, 2026.

Ironically, the Dodgers were in the midst of a season-high 7-game losing streak when they traded for Tarik Skubal on Aug. 2, which delighted a number of fans who were miffed that they were able to acquire a superstar like Skubal for what many felt was an underwhelming trade package. The Dodgers have righted the ship since the losing streak by going 11-4 over the last two weeks. Skubal is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 4 starts with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers also welcomed back veteran starters Blake Snell (elbow) and Tyler Glasnow (back) who were out for months with injuries. Snell returned on Aug. 11, and Glasnow makes his return tonight against the Braves. So, the already stacked Dodgers essentially added three stud pitchers within the last 3 weeks.

In addition to the recent arrivals of Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers boast one of the MLB’s top offenses and pitching units. The offense ranks 2nd in batting average (.258) and slugging percentage (.426), 3rd in on-base percentage (.335) and total bases (1,882) and 8th in homers (167), while the pitching staff leads MLB in WHIP (1.16), quality starts (70) and on-base average (.217). The Dodgers’ plus-151 run differential ranks 2nd in MLB behind MLB-leading Milwaukee.

All of this leads the Dodgers to being an overwhelming favorite to three-peat as World Series champs in October. They are (+165) favorites to win the 2026 World Series. The next closest team is the New York Yankees at (+800). We’ll see if the Dodgers can three-peat. The National League playoff field is deep, and it could be difficult for the Dodgers to win the NL pennant, even with their exorbitant amount of talent.

GAME STORYLINES: ATLANTA

After finishing with the MLB’s best record of 104-58 in 2023, the Atlanta Braves saw a steep decline over the next 2 years falling to 88-73 in 2024 and 76-86 last year. The Braves experienced a 28-game dropoff from 2023 to 2025. Prolonged injuries for superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and star pitcher Spencer Strider over the past 2 seasons were huge factors in Atlanta’s struggles.

After winning the 2023 National League MVP by hitting .337 with 41 homers, 106 RBI and an MLB-leading 73 stolen bases across 159 games, Ronald Acuna Jr. spent the next two seasons dealing with an assortment of injuries. He tore his ACL in May 2024 which wiped out the rest of the 2024 season and caused him to miss the first two months of the 2025 campaign. Strider (20-5, MLB-leading 281 strikeouts in 2023) underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and has been injury-prone ever since. He’s currently on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury and may not return this season.

The loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. for large portions of two seasons was particularly damaging for Atlanta since he plays every day as a hitter and fielder, as opposed to Spencer Strider who takes the mound once every 5th or 6th game. Acuna played in 159 games in 2023, but participated in just 49 games in 2024 and 95 games last year. He’s dealt with a recurring hamstring injury this year that has caused him to miss 52 games.

Ronald Acuna Jr’s importance to the team is illustrated by Atlanta’s record with and without him this year. Acuna has played in 79 games (.250, 13 HR, 35 RBI, 17 steals) this season, the Braves are 51-28 (.645) with him and 25-27 (.481) without him. If you extract those numbers over a full season, Atlanta is a 104-58 team with Acuna and 78-84 without him. These numbers almost mirror the records Atlanta registered in 2023 when Acuna played a full season and 2025 when Acuna was dealing with the lingering effects of a torn ACL in 2024.

With Ronald Acuna Jr. beginning the 2026 campaign at full strength, Atlanta got off to a fast start at 25-10. The quick start allowed them to somewhat run away with the division by early May as the NL East preseason favorite Mets and Phillies got off to slow starts. The Braves have led the NL East for the entire season, but will need to hold off the surging Philadelphia Philles who have pulled to within 3.5 games of the first-place Braves.

Much like the Dodgers, Atlanta also sports a strong offense and pitching staff. The Braves rank amongst the top 10 in slugging percentage (5th), total bases (6th) and runs scored (8th). Their plus-110 run differential ranks 4th in MLB. On the pitching side, the Braves rank 4th in ERA (3.60) and on-base average (.231), and 8th in WHIP (1.25).

Leading the way for Atlanta’s offense is all-star first baseman Matt Olson. The 32-year-old slugger is hitting .258 with 36 homers, 77 RBI, 56 walks and 31 doubles across 131 games. His 36 homers are tied for second in MLB behind Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber (36). Olson was named an All-Star for the fourth time in his career this season and is four homers away from posting the second-highest total of his 10-year MLB career. He hit a career-high 54 with the Braves in 2023.

The pitching staff is led by the ageless Chris Sale. The 37-year-old ace is 12-9 with a 2.20 ERA and 166 strikeouts through 23 starts in his 17th MLB season. He tied a season-high with 11 strikeouts in his last start at Milwaukee on Aug. 21. Sale experienced a career renaissance when he signed with the Braves in 2023 at the age of 35. He won the 2024 National League Cy Young award in his debut season (18-3, 2.38 ERA) with the Braves and has continued to be one of MLB’s best pitchers for the last three years.

Atlanta made three significant additions at the trade deadline to improve their team. They acquired starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (2-1 1.52 ERA in 4 starts w/ATL) from San Francisco, along with left fielder Lane Thomas (.240, 1 HR, 3 RBI in 14 gms w/ATL) from Kansas City and catcher Jonah Heim (.231, 1 HR, 8 RBI in 12 gms w/ATL) from the Athletics. The 31-year-old Mahle has been outstanding in his four starts with Atlanta after an up-and-down 10-year MLB career with 4 teams prior to joining the Braves.

THE PICK: DODGERS (-153)

Los Angeles has won 6 in a row and appear to be in championship mode as the regular season heads into the final month. I expect the Dodgers to get a big boost from the return of starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who will be making his first start in almost 4 months. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line tonight!