NFL Pics 11/4 – Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Pics 11/4 – Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Buffalo Bills (5-3) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) in a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Football. This is a rematch of last season’s divisional round playoff game where the third-seeded Bengals went on the road and soundly defeated the second-seeded Bills 27-10. Buffalo enters the game with a few days of extra rest after they held off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-18 on October 26. Cincinnati is coming off an impressive 31-17 win at San Francisco last Sunday, it was their third straight win. Cincinnati is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 49.5.

GAME STORYLINES

In March 2020 the Buffalo Bills traded for talented wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had spent his first 5 NFL seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. Acquiring Diggs, along with the emergence of third year quarterback Josh Allen resulted in the Bills having one of their most successful seasons in franchise history. The 2020 season saw Allen (37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, 9 rushing touchdowns) and Diggs (127 catches for 1,535 yards, 8 touchdowns) elevate their games to an All-Pro level which resulted in the Bills finishing 13-3 and advancing to the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 1993 season. The tremendous play of Allen and Diggs ended a nearly 3 decades run of mediocrity and losing for the franchise. Buffalo appeared to be on a Super Bowl championship trajectory with Allen and Diggs leading the way. 

Since the run to the AFC Championship game, Buffalo has been somewhat of a disappointment as they’ve lost in the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the last 2 seasons. They enter Sunday’s night’s showdown at Cincinnati with a 5-3 record, which is a game behind first place Miami in the AFC East. Buffalo has also put up several dispirited performances in wins and losses, including last week against struggling Tampa Bay where they barely escaped with a 24-18 win at home. The uneven performances from week to week has many questioning whether Buffalo is still a Super Bowl contender. 

Quarterback Josh Allen has established himself among the elite in the NFL as he’s averaged 4,200 yards and 35+ touchdowns for the last 3 seasons. He’s also averaged over 760 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns over the last 2 seasons. Allen is having another All-Pro season in 2023 with 2,173 passing yards, 17 touchdowns to 8 interceptions and 5 rushing touchdowns. He’s also completing a career-best 71.7 percent of his passes. The big problem for Josh Allen has been turnovers, he led the NFL in turnovers last year with 19 and leads the NFL in turnovers and interceptions since the start of the 2019 season.  

Buffalo traded for Green Bay cornerback Rasul Douglas during the week to bolster a defense that has been ravaged by injuries this season. Cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones are all starters who suffered significant injuries that will likely keep all three out for the rest of the season. Douglas has 15 career interceptions in 7 NFL seasons and is expected to be a starter for Buffalo when he suits up.

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow entered the NFL as one of the most ballyhooed college prospects of all time after a historic 2019 college season (5,671 passing yards, 60 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, 15-0 record, National Championship) at LSU. Burrow has lived up to and exceeded expectations as he has almost singlehandedly turned around one of the most downtrodden franchises in all of sports. After a knee injury in Week 11 of Burrow’s rookie year ended his season, he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021 and then the AFC Championship game last season. Prior to Burrow’s arrival, Cincinnati’s last playoff win was in January 1991 and their last Super Bowl appearance was in January 1989.

Joe Burrow began the 2023 season suffering from a lingering calf injury that limited his mobility which caused his play to suffer. He got off to a woeful statistical start to the season and the Bengals started the year at 1-3. Burrow had 2 games where he did not pass for a touchdown, Cincinnati was held to just 3 points in both games. Since the 1-3 start, Cincinnati has won 3 in a row and Burrow is back to performing at an elite level as he has 8 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the 3 wins. Burrow had one of the best games of his career last week against the highly regarded San Francisco 49ers defense, he went 28-32 (87.5%) for 283 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a 31-17 win. 

Burrow’s tag team partner in Cincinnati’s offense is wide receiver and former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The 23-year-old superstar Chase has been a dominant player from the moment he stepped on to an NFL field, he finished with 83 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns as a rookie in 2021. Chase had 10 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win at San Francisco. Versatile running back Joe Mixon is also an important piece to the offense as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson (22 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 forced fumble this season) leads the defense and is one of the top defensive players in the NFL. 

THE PICK

Joe Burrow’s calf issues are in the distant past and he now has Cincinnati in “Super Bowl run” mode, Lay the Points…Cincinnati 28, Buffalo 17