NFL Picks 10/1 – Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

NFL Picks 10/1 – Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The undefeated Miami Dolphins (3-0) go on the road to face the Buffalo Bills (2-1) on Sunday in a matchup of long-time AFC East rivals. Buffalo is a 3-point favorite and the total is 53.5. Undefeated Miami is coming off a historic 70-20 win over Denver last Sunday. The 70 points scored is the third most in NFL history, and it was the most points scored by an NFL team in a game since 1966. Miami scored a touchdown on eight of its first nine drives. Buffalo is coming off a 37-3 rout at Washington thanks in large part to a dominant defensive performance. Buffalo sacked Washington quarterback Sam Howell nine times and intercepted him four times, the last time a defense had nine sacks and four interceptions in a game was 1995. Buffalo has outscored their last two opponents 75-13 since a puzzling 22-16 Week One loss at the New York Jets. Buffalo has won nine of the last ten matchups against Miami and also beaten Miami seven straight times at home.

GAME STORYLINES

Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino spent his entire 17-year illustrious career (1983-1999) as the Miami Dolphins franchise quarterback. Since his retirement following the 1999 season, Miami has spent the past 23 seasons looking for a franchise quarterback, they’ve started 23 different quarterbacks since 2000. Miami selected highly-decorated Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft in hopes of finally landing that franchise quarterback. 

Unfortunately, Tua’s first 3 seasons have been marred with injuries, including two jarring concussions which he suffered last season. In the 13 games that Tua did play last season, he had his best year as a pro passing for 3,548 yards with 25 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, along with a 70.6 QBR, he established career-high in all 4 categories. Tua is off to a blistering start in 2023 as he’s thrown for 1,024 yards with 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and completed 71.3 percent of his passes. Tua’s is playing like an MVP at this early stage of the season.

The other key to Miami’s explosive offensive attack has been the play of superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Miami traded for Hill prior to the 2022 season and then signed him to a 4-year, $120 million dollar extension. The 29-year-old speedster immediately exceeded all expectations as he set career highs with 119 catches for 1,710 yards in his first season as a Dolphin. Hill’s 1,710 yards set the Dolphins single-season receiving record. Hill has picked up where he left off last year as he’s totaled 25 catches for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns through the first 3 games. 

Third year wideout Jaylen Waddle (75 catches, 1,356 yards, 8 touchdowns in 2022), veteran running back Raheem Mostert (career-high 891 rushing yards in 2022) and rookie running back De’Von Achane are also dangerous weapons in Miami’s offense. Waddle actually missed last week’s historic beat down of Denver, he has 8 catches for 164 yards in 2 games this season and has recorded over 1,000 yards in each of his first 2 seasons. After recording just 1 carry for 5 yards in the first 2 games of the season, Achane exploded for 203 yards on 18 carries and 4 touchdowns in last week’s rout of Denver. We’ll see whether he gets a larger role in the offense moving forward.

In 2020, the Buffalo Bills finished 13-3 and made it to the AFC Championship Game behind the strong play of third year quarterback Josh Allen. Allen emerged as a superstar in year 3 as he passed for 4,544 yards with 37 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 8 rushing touchdowns. Buffalo finished 11-6 in 2021 and had their season end with a memorable 42-36 OT loss at Kansas City in the second round of the playoffs. Last season, Buffalo rebounded with another 13-3 mark but their season ended with a humbling 27-10 upset loss at home to Cincinnati in the second round.  Allen has continued his elite play over the last 2 seasons as he’s passed for over 4,000 yards and thrown for 35+ touchdowns, but he leads all quarterbacks in turnovers since he’s been in the NFL. The large number of turnovers and the failure to return to the AFC Championship has led some to question Allen’s ability to lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. 

The 2023 season began inauspiciously for Josh Allen and the Bills as Allen threw 3 interceptions and lost a fumble in a 22-16 OT loss at the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Buffalo blew a 10-point halftime lead to a demoralized Jets team who lost newly acquired starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury just four plays into the game. Allen and the Bills have rebounded well after the inexplicable loss to the Jets as Allen has passed for 492 yards with 4 touchdowns to 1 interception along with a rushing touchdown in the Bills two straight dominant wins. 

Three-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs (108 catches for 1,429 yards, 11 TD’s in 2022), second year running back James Cook (44 carries for 264 yards, 6.1 Yards Per Carry this year) and fourth year wideout Gabe Davis (career highs 48 catches for 836 yards and 7 TD’s in 2022) are Buffalo’s key skill position players on offense. Veteran defensive end Leonard Floyd (3.5 sacks in 2023) along with safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer headline a defense that has been excellent over the past two weeks. 

THE PICK

Buffalo has dominated Miami in recent matchups and I don’t expect things to change here, even with Miami’s hot start, Lay the Points…Buffalo 34, Miami 27