Henry Li is a college football analyst for Wannamakeabet.com
Alabama -11.5 @ Mississippi
The Crimson Tide Role into Ole Miss with two losses before the Iron Bowl for the first time since 2010 against an 8-1 Ole Miss team still with a chance of getting to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game. For Ole Miss to win the SEC west, they will need to win out and hope LSU drops their final two SEC matchups.
In the last ten matchups between the two schools, ‘Bama is 8-2 straight up but 4-6 against the spread (ATS). In the last 4 matchups at Oxford, however, Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS with their lone straight up win coming in 2014. As we know, even the covid redshirt year, there’s nobody from either side left from that game.
Ole Miss is coming off a bye and should be healthy whereas ‘Bama just came off of a slugfest against LSU and morale is low after losing on a heartbreaking OT 2-point conversion. We know Lane Kiffin is another of Nick Saban’s former assistants and the only one to beat him was Jimbo Fisher last season with Texas A&M. Bama is about one thing: Winning National Championships, and with that now out of the picture, I don’t see where they have the motivation to put up another big effort. Although Bryce Young isn’t draft eligible yet, Saban’s main focus will now be to protect him and make a push for the national title next season when he has another number one recruiting class coming in.
There will also be a number of other ‘Bama players who are draft eligible that may take it easy this game, give their last big effort in the Iron bowl two weeks later (after the Austin Peay game) and then opt out of their bowl matchup. The lack of defensive effort or ability should make the over a decent play as well.
I see Bama winning this one but they will only squeak it out in a high scoring game, 42-41.
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