NFL Week 4 Predictions

The commish is in familiar territory as we head into October at  The season win % after two weeks of handicapping is now 50%.   Let’s jump right into this week’s handicap as the commish is starting to get familiar with team tendencies and feeling more and more confident.   All lines are current as of the time of this writing.


Buffalo – 3 over Baltimore

Back to back road games for the Bills after coming off a heartbreaking loss to Miami last week.  And now they have to face another top 5 AFC team in Baltimore.   Lamar Jackson is the Aaron Judge of the NFL this year.  Motivated by not getting the contract his management thinks he deserves, he’s playing perfect football.  He was always unstoppable on the ground, but now his passing has been on the same level, which has led them to be ranked as the #1 offense in the league.   Buffalo is currently ranked 6th.  But here’s the problem.   The Baltimore defense is ranked 19th.  They let Miami come back into the game due to a weak secondary and they let the lowly Pats hang around last week.  Today they get an angry Buffalo team coming off a last second loss and I don’t care what Lamar does today, that defense won’t be able to stop this explosive offense.  And now that I’m not laying the extra hook I’ll gladly spot the Ravens a 3 here.

Houston + 6 over LA Chargers

Houston has been scrappy and competitive in all three games this season despite being 0-2-1.  And their defense is the driving force behind this as they almost crack the top half of the league.  But this handicap is really based on how decimated the Chargers are in terms of injuries.  Keenan Allen still out, and there are 15, that’s right 15 more key players who are either out or questionable as we head to the kickoff today.  The Chargers are reeling, and they will be more than happy to get out of Houston with a win today and even that seems unlikely.

Arizona +1  over Carolina

Different team, same Baker.  He’s still ranked bottom 2 or 3 in the league despite wearing a different uniform and the Arizona defense is ranked lower than they should be due to the strength of schedule.  They’ve had to play the Rams and Chiefs so far this season and when playing the Raiders they were able to rally and score when needed to win the game.  I see the same thing playing out today.  This is a big step down in quality for the Cards defense.  Carolina couldn’t hang with the lowly Giants and barely beat the Saints last week and sharp money has moved this line a full two points since the open.  Arizona cruises today and gets back to 2-2.

Tampa Bay – 1 over Chiefs

If the Chiefs couldn’t beat the Colts on the road last week how are they going to pull this one off?  TB12 finally gets his weapons back as Mike Evans, Godwin, and Julio all look to be back today.  And the defense is ranked #1 in the league and looking every bit the part.  Yes, the offense has been struggling especially in the running game as Lenny has really struggled this year.   The coaching edge goes to Andy in this one as Todd Bowles is no Bruce Arians.  But a prime time matchup for Tom to avoid losing back to back games is just what the doctor ordered to get the win and cover for the commish.

LA Rams +2 over SF 49ers

The 49ers offense behind Jimmy is downright pathetic.  And anyone who watched the Denver game last week will corroborate this.   Jimmy stepping out of bounds in the end zone .  Jimmy missing wide open receivers in the flat.  Jimmy making dumb decisions in high leverage moments explains exactly why they could not move him off the roster during the offseason.   And today they play division rival Rams who they always struggle against.  AFC West road dogs was one of my favorite handicapping angles last season that cashed often and I’m going back to the well for the first time this season with the same approach.

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