Why is it that every time I got into the car this past week Beck came on the radio with “I’m a loser baby, so why don’t you kill me”. And I sang right along. Yes, the commish is cold. My second week in a row going 1-4 last Sunday brings my season record to 30/60 (50%). This is below the dreaded Mendoza line of 52.38% which is the break even percentage if you’re betting at -110 on every game. But there’s five weeks to go in the season and I haven’t lost faith. Here’s who I have my eye on for this Sunday. All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this posting. And now, my NFL 2021 Week 13 Predictions.
Minnesota Vikings -7.5 over Detroit Lions
The Vikings, by my numbers, are the 10th best team in the league and best team in the NFC North. The Lions, #31 out of 32. The combination of Detroit not having a pass rush whatsoever and D’Adndre Swift being out (shoulder) has the commish on his beloved Vikes yet again this week. I’m not overthinking this one. Despite this being a division game, I just see this game as a Cousins carving of this defense and the purple shut down on the other side of the ball. Lay the wood on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles – 5.5 over New York Jets
The Jets just don’t beat the Eagles, even on a good year. I looked it up and the last time it happened was 2003. And here we are today where there’s value in this game because the Jets beat Houston last week and the Eagles lost to the lowly Giants. This game has been steaming toward the Jets but I don’t care. Their rushing DVOA is ranked 31st in the league. Philly, ranked 15th overall is fighting for a playoff spot and playing relatively good football. While the Jets have an occasional flicker of hope. This is a bad matchup for the Jets today and angry Philly is going to come up the road 90 miles to the stadium where they lost last week and get some revenge on a 10 pound weakling at 1:00.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 over Baltimore Ravens
The commish is still in disbelief over what happened to the Steelers last Sunday in Cincy but you need a short memory to be a successful bettor. Meanwhile, the Ravens have to be the worst good team in the league. Their offense is anemic and the high variance Lamar improvisation show is laughable as he scrambles around in the pocket on every single play only to chuck it up to a receiver who has their back to the endzone and either barely catches it or gets PI. When is this going to end? TODAY! The Steelers find themselves in a must win situation in this one and we all know this should be a field goal game where the Steelers are favored. I’ll take the five and sit back and enjoy as TJ Watt gets home and Ben finds tight ends while the Ravens manage a laundry list of injuries and try and win in one of the hardest stadiums in the league.
NFL 2021 Week 13 Predictions
Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers.
Remember my strategy of NFC West Dogs? Here we go again. Seattle has been written off after the loss to the Redskins (sorry WFT) but the season ain’t over yet. Nobody needs extra motivation to get up for this one and these 49ers are not as good as their ranking (#7) and Seattle perhaps not as bad as theirs (17th). The lookahead line in this game was the standard Seattle -3 so I’m feeling six points of value in this division war. The 49ers are banged up, and their recent reliance on Debo run sweeps won’t work today because he’s out. Meanwhile, Seattle is healthy physically, they just need to get right in the head and get a meaningful win and play to their potential.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 over New England Patriots
The game of the week has the commish on the home team. I do have New England ranked #2 and Buffalo #3 but laying less than a field goal at home on Monday night with that meth head upstate vibe in the stands is too attractive. I also look back to 2020 and Buffalo’s dominance of the Pats as an edge here. Sean McDermott may have just figured out something about big Bill and the Pats scheme that is both working and repeatable. We just have to hope Josh Allen is up for the moment and the pressure may be too much for young Mac.
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NFL 2021 Week 13 Predictions