NFL 2021 Week 5 Predictions

NFL 2021 Week 5 Predictions are ready.  We’re coming off a hot week last week going 4-1 (Season record is now 12/21 (57%) and the only regret being taking a Detroit Lions team that was 1 for 5 inside the 10 yard line.  I was in disbelief that they could not put the ball into the end zone or through the uprights and will be staying away from them like the plague for the remainder of the season.  That said, here’s who the commish has his eye on today.  All these lines are based on lines from at time of publication.

Miami +10.5 over Tampa

Classic over reaction by the Vegas line makers here.  Jacoby Brissett had a bad game last week and disappointed many a bettor and the country continues to be enamored by Tom Brady and the Bucs after win against the Pats.   But take a closer look at the numbers here and there are plenty of reasons to like the fish.  For starters, their defense (9) is ranked higher than Tampa (13) according to my power numbers.   And even though Tampa offense (5)  is much stronger than Miami (28) their overall team ranking (9) has them barely in the top third of the league.  Laying 10.5 is a lot of wood to chop in this league and so I’m forced to get involved here and hope Miami plays inspired ball coming off a stinker against the Colts and Tampa finding themselves in a trap game where they have absolutely no reason to win by more than two scores.  Even if they do have a lead late in the game, the back door will be swinging.   Throw in the fact that 50% of Survivor pools will be on Tampa and that always causes additional sweat to not just cover but actually win the game.

Green Bay -2.5 over Cincinnati

These two teams are not in the same class and so I’m seeing value in laying less than a field goal here, despite being on the road.  My power numbers have Cincy ranked 10 and Green Bay 17 but in my mind Cincy is still too high and Green Bay still too low.  The pre-season number on this game was Green Bay -6.5!  I think the betting public is down on Aaron Rodgers and his hair but let’s not lose focus here.   Maybe there’s additional movement based on Jaire Alexander being out and Mixon being healthy today but I still think Aaron finds a way and they get a fairly easy win today.

Dallas – 7 over New York Giants

Dallas is ranked #1 according to my numbers and the Giants are 21st.  I don’t think too many people are surprised by how well the Dallas offense has been playing this year but what we didn’t expect was the defense to be performing this well.  I have them currently ranked 10th and the Giants, who we thought would be led by their defense, is ranked 27th.   This is a horrible recipe for this game when you throw in the rivalry between the two but I cannot get there in thinking the Giants have a chance in this game.   These teams hate each other, and that will add fuel to the fire if Dallas gets a lead.  They play like Buffalo when they have a lead and will absolutely pore it on like they did against Philly if they get a lead.   I wasn’t sure about this number when the line came out at 8.5 but now that the steam has taken it to 7 I’m involved.  Great teaser leg as well if you’re looking for one.

San Francisco 49ers + 5.5 over Arizona

Another NFC West dog and here I am ready to bet it.  Even though Seattle didn’t connect for me on Thursday night as a 2.5 dog to the Rams I believe it was the right side.  Now.  The 49ers were embarrassed by Seattle last week and Arizona blew the doors off the Rams and so the market has, of course, radically over reacted.  And so we find ourselves with a game that should be a field goal home fave to getting great value for the dog at 5.5.   The market in this game is begging you to take the 49ers.   Begging you to take Trey Lance.  And perhaps he is not ready to start an NFL game but from what I saw last week in limited snaps, it’s Trey Lance time and this helps them in that Arizona.  They are going to run the ball with Trey Lance as one of their running backs.   I don’t posit that the 49ers are going to stop Klyer Murray because nobody has been able to do that this year but the 49ers sure as hell have a pass rush against a team who has historically struggled to stop them.   And Arizona is at the absolute top of their value range and if there was ever a time to a team high, this is it.

Kansas City Chiefs – 2.5 over Buffalo

Finally, an opportunity to bet the Chiefs at value that’s appropriate.   The market thinks the Chiefs are worse than they actually are.  And the flip side is true for the Bills.  But we need to look no farther than their respective competition thus far to see why.  The Chiefs have had to play three of the best offenses in the league in Tampa, Cleveland, Baltimore (and Philly isn’t too shabby).  Meanwhile, Buffalo has been playing cupcake jokes (Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington, and Houston ) they will finally face a defense and overall team and home fan based that will likely rattle Josh into making some bone headed mistakes (like we know he’s capable of).  The Chiefs offense is… unstoppable.  Tyreek, Kelce and Mahomes just make plays whenever they need to.  Lay the small number here and end the day on a high note.

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