Week 14 NFL Predictions – Chalky Chiefs

Week 14 NFL Predictions are locked and loaded.  Last week, I took it on the chin again and went 1-2 on my picks. Seattle disappointed me and every teaser player from NY to LA last Sunday as they lost outright to the Giants. The Browns was my best call of the week as they pistol whipped the Titans and the Raiders had to deal with a very feisty Jets team right down to the wire.   My season record in this blog now stands at 24-26-1 so I’m looking to get back to sea level this week.   Here’s who I’m locked into this week.

 

Carolina – 3 over Denver.  That’s it for Denver.  They’re done.   Last week was their Super Bowl and for those of you who dipped in to the Sunday night game and backed them +13 congrats.  Now it’s time to start thinking about next year as they cannot make the playoffs and must be dreading getting on this airplane and having to go to Charlotte to play the Panthers.  Denver backers will point to the continued absence of McCaffrey but let’s be honest, he hasn’t really been there for most of the season and the team is arguably more balanced without him.  Teddy B gets another win as we don’t see the Denver defense giving the effort that they did against the Chiefs again for the rest of 2020.

Miami +7.5 over Chiefs –  I hope I don’t regret this but getting more than a TD against this Chiefs team was too hard to resist.  The Chiefs defense is over-rated.  They tend to play down to their opponents.  Miami secondary has been able to hang with anyone they’ve played this year.  Can they cover Tyreek Hill?  No, but can they annoy him and limit him to maybe one TD, yes.  Chief Redzone execution has not been great so maybe they work on that this week and get better but this is just too much wood to chop.  I don’t feel that great about this one but either way, I believe on the right side.   I’m also encouraged that the public did not rush in and bet Chiefs to move this line up and closer to 10 because the truth is, they Chiefs have not been covering and they won’t cover on Sunday.  They’re not playing the Jets.  Four wins without covering, let’s make it five.

Jets +13.5 over Seattle – Something is wrong with Seattle.  Offensive line doesn’t look great.  Lockett isn’t playing well or is still hurt.  For the Jets, Darnold and Crowder look promising lately.  And now that the Giants went in there and won last week, their New York counterpart must be saying to themselves… “Why not us too?”.  Are they really going to lose every game this season?  Maybe, but we’re at the point where there is extra effort on every single snap to not let that happen.  They have been looking feisty.  The truth is, this is a different team with Darnold healthy.  And there is extra motivation for him to dispel these feelings in the NY Media that the team needs to draft Trevor Lawrence to fix their woes.  The Jet problems are not tied to Darnold nearly as much as they are tied to Adam Gase and management.  Either way, too much wood to chop for Seattle here.

Atlanta -2.5 over Chargers – The Chargers should be favored by 2 or 3 in this game but they are a team that is completely feeling apart.  They find ways to lose and last weeks beatdown to New England may have been the nail in the coffin.  Anthony Linn is headed for the unemployment line and this is a team does not appear to be supporting him at all.   Atlanta is, to me, still a very capable team who is priced well here because they took it on the chin from the Saints.  Do they struggle in the red zone?  Absolutely.  But The Falcons just have too many weapons for a bad team skidding into the off-season looking for a new coach and whose players are just trying not to get hurt or get covid.

Philly +6.5 over Saints – Third week in a row on the road for the Saints.  Is Sean Payton actually going to drop back Drew Brees with his bruised ribs against this front four?  They will KILL him if that happens and at best he stands back there and throws dink and dunk to get the ball down the field.   And there will be plenty of Tasum HIll even if Brees plays.  Now I’m not sold on Hurts in fact I wasn’t a huge fan when he was in College and Bama and then left town for Oklahoma but Sunday will be his coming out party and unlike Wentz, the Saints can’t prepare for him because nobody has seen him.  The league will figure him out quickly, but not before the Eagles cover this nice number as a home dog.

Pittsburgh +2 – Buy low sell high.  The lookahead line in this game was Pittsburgh -2 and now look where we are.  So they finally lost a game but who ever thought this was a 16 win team?  True, they haven’t been playing well in the past month but people are buying into Buffalo being a head above the Steelers?  No.  Why?  Because they beat a weak 49ers team and Josh Allen finally was accurate when he historically has not been?  TJ Watt and the crew are coming and this Buffalo defense (and I’ve said this many times this year) is just not very good.  They often times cannot get off the field.  That Steeler anger from the Skins loss is going to manifest itself in a big way Sunday night.

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