What a difference a season makes. Our NFL week 16 insights features some interesting early lines on the card this week, including the Browns being a surprising 9 point favorite over the struggling Cincinnati Bengals. And that’s after opening at an already big number of 7. It’s the first time since November 2014 that the Browns have been favored by seven or more points. They’ve already come a long way since the Hue Jackson era, which just ended in Week 5 this season. Now let’s take a look around the league at all the games and odds.
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Washington Redskins +10 O/U 37 at Tennessee Titans , Saturday 4:30 PM
The Titans are hot against NFC teams. Not only are they 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against the conference, but they’re also 3-0 both straight-up and ATS against the NFC East this season alone. On the other hand, the Redskins are just 1-2 straight-up against the AFC South. This game marks just the third time in the past five years that the Titans have been favored by double-digits with Tennessee going 0-2 ATS (2-0 straight-up) in the two previous games.
The Redskins haven’t been a double-digit underdog since 2015 and they didn’t cover the last time it happened. Both teams are 8-6 ATS on the season. This feels like a big number for Tennessee to cover and it will be interesting to see which way it moves. It’s feeling like this number will move to 9.5 within the next few days.
Baltimore +4.5 at San Diego Chargers 43.5, Saturday 8:20 PM
The Chargers have been almost flawless in their last 10 games. Since Week 5, L.A. has gone 9-1 straight-up and 7-3 ATS. The Chargers have also been a safe bet in primetime lately, going 4-1-1 ATS in their past six. As for the Ravens, they seem to struggle when they play on the west coast in the Harbaugh era The Ravens have gone 4-4 straight-up against west coast teams and 3-5 ATS. Of course, maybe Lamar Jackson can change that, and that’s because he’s been on a roll. Since Jackson took over the starting job in Week 11, the Ravens have gone 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 ATS.
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Houston Texans +2.5 O/U 46 at Philadelphia Eagles
Arguably the best game on the card Sunday. If Houston is going to win this game, they’re going to have to do something they’ve never done before: Beat Philly. Now the Texans are on a hot streak right now with 10 wins in their past 11 games, so if they’re going to beat Philly, now might be a good time. The opening line on this game was Philly -3.5 and quickly moved down through the key number of three.
The Texans are an ugly 0-3 ATS against the NFC East this year (2-1 straight-up). As for the Eagles, they’ve won six straight home games against AFC teams (4-2 ATS), but they’re just 5-9 ATS on the season. The Nick Foles factor is strong. He shocked the league and the betting public last week by beating the Rams on the road and is sure to be welcomed with open arms when he returns home on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals +9 44.5 at Cleveland Browns
Although this rivalry has been one-sided with the Bengals winning — and covering — in seven of their past eight games against Cleveland, there is some good news for the Browns. Their lone win came earlier this year when they covered as a one-point road favorite in a 35-20 win. Including that win over the Bengals, the Browns are 4-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past five games. As for the Bengals, they’re 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games and they’ve covered in their past four trips to Cleveland.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 O/U 47.5 @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are impressive at home this year. Not only are they 6-1 straight-up in Dallas, but they’re also 5-2 ATS. The Cowboys have also covered in five of their past six games. One thing the Cowboys have also done well is cover large point spreads. In the past five games where the Cowboys have been favored by a touchdown or more, they’ve gone 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS.
And there may be a little extra motivation after getting their butts handed to them against Indy last week. As for the Bucs, although they’ve been struggling on the road (1-6). That said, they have managed to cover the spread, going 3-3-1 ATS in those seven games.
Minnesota Vikings -5.5 O/U 42.5 at Detroit Lions
The Vikings are 0-3 both straight-up and ATS in their past three road games. Not good considering they also struggle against the Lions. Since Mike Zimmer took over as Vikings coach in 2014, Minnesota has gone 4-5 straight-up against the Lions and 5-4 ATS. However, it should be noted that the Vikings have won and covered in two straight games against the them, including a Week 9 game where Minnesota covered as a 4.5-point home favorite in a 24-9 win.
New York Giants +9 O/U 47 at Indianapolis
The Colts are one of just three teams in the NFL that Eli Manning has never beaten. He’s going to have to face a hot Colts team on Sunday that has won seven of their past eight. During that streak, Indy has gone 5-2-1 ATS. The Colts are also 3-0 ATS against the NFC this year. But don’t necessarily sleep on the Giants. They’re 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games and they’re 6-1 ATS in the past seven games where they were an underdog by a touchdown or more.
Jacksonville Jags +4 O/U 38.5 at Miami Dolphins
The Jags are one of the worst road teams in the league this year. They are 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 ATS, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Jaguars also seem to especially struggle in December with a record of 2-18 straight-up in their past 20 December road games (6-14 ATS). The Jags are also 4-8-2 ATS on the season, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.
As for the Dolphins, they’re 6-1 ATS at home in 2018, which is the second-best mark in the league. Basically, it’s the NFL’s second-best home team at covering the spread against the league’s second-worst road team. The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC Wildcard hunt, and should continue to play inspired ball at home this Sunday.
Buffalo Bills +13 O/U 44.5 @ New England Patriots
The Pats have dominated the AFC East for years and a big reason for that is because they almost never lose division games at home. Since 2010, the Patriots are 23-2 straight-up in home divisional games (15-9-1 ATS). That said, the only two losses in that span both came against Buffalo (2014, 2016).
The Patriots have been a safe bet at home this season, going 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 ATS. Also, if there’s one team you want to bet on to cover a double-digit spread, it’s the Patriots. Especially coming off a tough loss to the Steelers last week in Pittsburgh. In the past 15 games where the Patriots were favored by 10 or more points, they’ve gone 13-2 ATS (14-1 straight-up).
Green Bay Packers -3 O/U 46 @ New York Jets
The Packers are a favorite despite not having won a single game on the road all year. That is quite a stat. Not only are the Packers 0-7 straight-up but they’re also just 1-5-1 ATS. Dating back to last season, the Packers have actually lost nine straight road games (2-6-1 ATS). Of course, maybe they’re favored because the Jets have been awful at home, going 2-5 straight-up and 2-4-1 ATS. The Jets have also been terrible against NFC teams at home, going 1-8 straight-up since the beginning of the 2014 season (2-7 ATS)
Atlanta -3.5 O/U 43.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Atlanta has been one of the worst bets in the league this year. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS on the year, worst in the league. And they’re are also one of the NFL’s worst teams on the road, going 1-5 both straight-up and ATS this year. Despite those stats, they’ve dominated this series against the Panthers. In the past six meetings between these two teams, the Falcons are 5-1 both straight-up and ATS, including a home game in Week 2 where the Falcons covered as a 5.5-point favorite in a 31-24 win. After the loss to the Saints on Monday night, where they looked dreadful and Cam is clearly hurt, Carolina comes in on a six game skid.
LA Rams -14 O/U 44.5 at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams have been destroying the Cardinals in the Sean McVeigh era. Since hiring him in 2017, the Rams are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS against Arizona, and none of those three games have even with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. One of those wins came back in Week 2 when the Rams covered as a 13.5-point home favorite in a 34-0 win. Although the Rams covered in that game, they haven’t done a great job of covering in many other games this season. Since Week 4, the Rams are 2-8-1 ATS (8-3 straight-up).
Chicago Bears -4 O/U 43 @ San Francisco 49ers
Chicago is 10-4 ATS, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. And they’ve been hot lately 7-1 ATS in their past eight. Meanwhile, the 49ers are also hot and 3-1 ATS as a home underdog. They’ve also won all three of those games. But overall the 49ers are just 5-9 ATS on the season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL but they certainly are a dangerous home team as they showed last week in the outright win over blazing hot Seattle.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 O/U 43 @ New Orleans Saints
The Saints have won six straight games against the AFC, including rolling through the AFC North this year (2-1 ATS). The Steelers have been equally good against the NFC, winning five straight, including a 3-0 record against the NFC South this year (3-0 ATS). The Saints are 11-3 ATS, which is the best in the NFL. One reason to like the Steelers is the fact that they’re 16-4 straight-up in their past 20 games played in the month of December (but just 1-2 this year).
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 O/U 53 at Seattle Seahawks
Traveling to Seattle for a primetime game against the Hawks is one of the more daunting tasks in the league. Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have gone 16-2 straight-up in home in primetime games (14-3-1 ATS). They’ve also been nearly unbeatable at home against AFC teams during Russell Wilson’s career. Since drafting Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks have gone 12-1 straight-up in home games against the AFC (8-5 ATS), although that one loss came this year against the Chargers. On the Chiefs’ end, they’ve struggled against the NFC with Andy Reid. In their past 15 games against the conference, Kansas City is 8-7 straight-up and 6-8-1 ATS.
Denver Broncos -2.5 O/U 44 @ Oakland Raiders
This week’s Monday Night Football game will likely be the last one ever played in Oakland. And if recent history is any indication, the Raiders time in Oakland will likely end with a loss. They are just 3-11 in their past 14 games against Denver (5-9 ATS). And they’ve have also lost six straight games against divisional opponents and they’ve gone 2-4 ATS in those losses. Monday night hasn’t been pretty either, with the Raiders going just 2-8 straight-up in their past 10 Monday games. But this line is inviting you to bet on Denver and something tells me that Oakland, with all their wonderful history through the years, may ride off into the sunset with one final victory from the NFL gods.