MLB Picks 7/20 – Mets @ Brewers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The New York Mets (42-58) begin a three-game series on the road against the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (62-37) tonight at American Family Field. This will be the first regular season head-to-head and series matchup between the Mets and Brewers. They’ll meet again for a three-game set in New York beginning on Aug. 25. Milwaukee went 4-2 against New York last season, and picked up a three-game sweep at home when these teams last met in August 2025. 

New York knocked off the Phillies 6-1 yesterday in Philadelphia. Mets second-year pitcher Nolan McLean (7-6) struck out a season-high 10 batters and gave up 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings in the win. Francisco Lindor went 3-for-3 with a homer and 3 RBI for the Mets. New York took two of three from the Phillies in the weekend series. 

Milwaukee is coming off a dramatic 3-1 win against the visiting Miami Marlins yesterday. William Contreras’ three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning won it for the Brewers. The victory completed a three-game sweep for Milwaukee and sent Miami to a season-high sixth straight loss.

Tonight’s contest against New York is the fourth game of a nine-game homestand for the Brewers. They’ll conclude the long homestand with a visit from the Colorado Rockies after facing the Mets. 

REVISITING THE BLOCKBUSTER METS-BREWERS TRADE

On Jan. 21, 2026, the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers pulled off a blockbuster trade in which Milwaukee sent its then-29-year-old ace Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 204 strikeouts in 33 starts w/MIL last yr) to the New York Mets in exchange for a pair of top 100 prospects in starting pitcher Brandon Sproat and shortstop Jett Williams.

The trade seemed puzzling on Milwaukee’s part due to the fact that Freddy Peralta just produced the best season of his 8-year MLB career (2018-2025). Peralta played all 8 of his MLB seasons with the Brewers. It’s believed that Milwaukee traded Peralta because he was entering the final year of his contract and the strategy of their front office is to trade star pitchers who are nearing free agency. The Brewers did this in previous years with former ace Corbin Burns (2021 NL Cy Young Award winner) and relief pitcher Devin Williams. 

Up to this point of the season, Milwaukee has won the trade by a pretty significant margin when you consider that Freddy Peralta now holds a losing record at 5-8 and his 4.66 ERA is on pace to be the second-worst ERA of his 9-year career. The Mets also occupy last place in the National League East, while Milwaukee owns second-best record in MLB behind the reigning back-to-back champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Peralta was expected to be a top-tier ace for a Mets team that was projected to be a World Series contender. 

On Milwaukee’s side, Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.16 ERA, 87 strikeouts in 16 starts and 2 relief appearances this yr) has been up and down in his first full season as a starting pitcher, but his numbers are somewhat comparable to Freddy Peralta’s this year, which is shocking when you consider Peralta was an All-Star a year ago. Jett Williams has spent the entire season in Milwaukee’s minor league system, but he is ranked as their third-best minor-league prospect. Williams could be called up to the majors soon.

In a twist of fate, it’s now rumored that the Milwaukee Brewers are considered a “top suitor” for Freddy Peralta ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. With New York’s season going nowhere, they are likely to start trading off their big-name players to contenders, and Peralta will be a hot commodity for a team with World Series aspirations. It would be quite a story if Peralta returned to pitch for Milwaukee in a few weeks. 

PITCHING MATCHUP

The aforementioned Freddy Peralta (5-8, 4.66 ERA, 104 strikeouts in 20 starts) returns to American Family Field and takes the mound against his former team. Opposing him will be National Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski (10-4, MLB-leading 1.62 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 18 starts) for Milwaukee. Peralta and Misiorwoski formed a close bond with each other last year as teammates. Misiorowski is quoted as saying of Peralta, “He’s an awesome guy. I love Freddy. But he’s on the other team, so you’ve got to kiss his a**. That’s my job.”

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: New York (+163),   Milwaukee (-199)

Run Line: New York + 1.5 (-120),   Milwaukee -1.5 (even)

Run Total: over 7.5 (-105),   under 7.5 (-114)

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK METS

Prior to the 2025 season, the New York Mets shocked the baseball world when they signed free agent superstar slugger Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract — the richest contract in North American sports history. The season prior to signing Soto, New York finished 89-73 and advanced to the 2024 NLCS. Soto was supposed to be the final piece to a World Series crown. 

Juan Soto’s debut season with the New York Mets was going according to plan as he was compiling a monster year at the plate, while the Mets maintained one of the best records in MLB — New York was 62-44 on July 27. But a disastrous final two months of the season saw the Mets finish the year 21-35 and close with an 83-79 record. They endured two separate losing streaks of 7 and 8 games, and missed the playoffs.

Despite the dismal finish as a team, Juan Soto amassed another prolific year at the plate batting .263 with career-high of 43 homers and 38 stolen bases, along 105 RBI and 127 walks across 160 games.  

Last season’s stunning collapse prompted New York’s front office to make drastic changes to its roster. Star hitters Pete Alonzo (free agent), Brandon Nimmo (trade) and Jeff McNeil (trade) were all shipped off, and replaced by an excellent foursome of Bo Bichette (trade), Luis Robert Jr. (trade), Jorge Polanco (trade) and Marcus Semien (free agent). That was in addition to acquiring the aforementioned Freddy Peralta. 

New York’s star-studded additions made them the Las Vegas favorites (+135) to win the National League East over division powers Philadelphia (+180) and Atlanta (+250). But the 2026 season has been a dud for the Mets. Injuries, an underperforming offense and a faulty pitching staff are the culprits for the disappointing 2026 campaign.

Luis Robert Jr. (76 gms missed), Jorge Polanco (80 gms missed), Francisco Lindor (57 gms missed) and Marcus Semien (18 gms missed) were out for significant amounts of time which contributed to New York’s struggles at the plate. All four players were also struggling at the plate when they were available.

Jorge Polanco returned on July 7 after missing nearly 3 months due to Achilles/ankle/wrist injuries. Luis Robert Jr. has been out since April 26 with a back injury. He’s been playing in rehab games with Triple-A Syracuse since late June and is expected back for this series against Milwaukee. Robert could play in tonight’s opener. Both players could be shipped off to contenders around the trade deadline on Aug. 3

The continued brilliance from All-World outfielder Juan Soto has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season. The 27-year-old, superstar is batting .290 with 21 homers, 52 RBI and 59 walks across 81 games. Soto started in last Tuesday’s All-Star game. It was his fifth All-Star game appearance. 

The emergence of rookies Carson Benge (.261, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 16 steals in 97 gms) and A.J. Ewing (.276, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 10 steals, 10 doubles in 60 gms) provides enormous optimism for New York’s future amid the tumultuous season. New York selected the 23-year-old Benge in the first round of the 2024 MLB draft (19th overall) out of Oklahoma State. Benge opened the season with the Mets, while Ewing made his debut on June 14. 

GAME STORYLINES: MILWAUKEE

Over the last decade, the Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the most winningest franchises in MLB. The Brewers have won three consecutive National League Central crowns entering the 2026 campaign, and won 89 or more games in 6 of the last 7 non-interrupted seasons. They’ve surpassed the 90-win mark in each of the last 3 seasons and are on pace to win 100+ games in 2026. 

Despite the tremendous amount of success over the last several years, a World Series ring has eluded the franchise. Milwaukee finished with the top seed in the National League last year and advanced to the National League Championship Series (NLCS), but were swept by the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers have yet to win a championship in its 57-year history and made only one appearance (1982) in the World Series.

Milwaukee is putting together another sensational season in 2026 as they enter tonight’s contest with the MLB’s second-best record at 62-37, they are just a half game behind the reigning back-to-back champion Angeles Dodgers (63-37) for the top record in baseball. The Brewers also hold a six-game lead over the second-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. Milwaukee’s ability to routinely beat teams by outscoring them or outpitching them is a reason for their dominance. The Brewers rank 2nd in run-differential (+131), 3rd in OBP (.338) and 4th in runs scored (499). On the pitching side, they rank 2nd in ERA (3.48) and WHIP (1.16) and are tied for fourth in shutouts (8). 

The headline for Milwaukee in 2026 is the stellar pitching of tonight’s starter Jacob Misiorowski in his sophomore campaign. The 6-foot-7 superstar burst onto the scene last year by throwing 11 hitless innings to begin his rookie season. He became the first player in 100 years to accomplish this. He concluded his rookie year with a 5-3 record, a 4.36 ERA and 87:31 K:BB across 14 starts and 1 relief appearance. Misiorowski made the All-Star team last year as a rookie.

The 24-year-old Jacob Misiorowski has emerged as the MLB’s top hurler this season in year two. He’ll take the mound tonight sporting a sparkling 1.62 ERA and 167:27 K:BB across 18 starts. He leads MLB in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and is tied for first in K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings). Misiorowski is a heavy favorite to win the National League Cy Young award at (-500). 

At the plate, the trio of first baseman Jake Bauers (.259, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 56 walks in 90 gms), second baseman Brice Turang (.261, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 23 doubles, 15 steals in 93 gms) and catcher William Contreras (.280, 10 HR, 57 in 92 gms) lead a balanced lineup. The 30-year-old Bauers is experiencing a breakout season and has already surpassed his career-high in homers and RBI, and will likely eclipse his career-best batting average of .235 which he set last year. 

THE PICK: BREWERS -217

NL Cy Young award favorite Jacob Misiorowski has 21 strikeouts in his 2 starts this month and is in the midst of one of the most dominant individual pitching seasons in MLB history. I don’t see why anything would change tonight as matches up with his former teammate and friend Freddy Peralta. Take the Brewers on the Run Line!