MLB Picks 7/17 – Dodgers @ Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The second half of the baseball season kicks off tonight with a potential World Series preview as the reigning back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers (61-36) visit the New York Yankees (54-42) at Yankee Stadium in the opener of a three-game series. The Dodgers own the best record in MLB, while the Yankees have the second-best record in the American League. This will be the only regular season meeting of the year between the storied franchises. 

Los Angeles and New York met in the World Series two years ago in 2024, and Los Angeles prevailed 4-1 to win their first of back-to-back World Series titles. It was also the Dodgers’ first World Series crown after a full season since 1988 — they won it all in 2020 when the COVID pandemic condensed that season to just 60 games. 

When you include the 2024 World Series, the Dodgers have won six of the last eight against the Yankees.

Both teams closed the first half of the season in opposite directions as Los Angeles suffered a three-game sweep at home courtesy of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who entered the series with a losing record at 46-47. The Dodgers lost four of their final five games before the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees closed the first half of the season with a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals on the road. The Yankees won all three games by exactly two runs, and needed late-inning rallies to win all three games. New York closed the first half of the year with four straight wins.

PITCHING MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki (3-5, 5.33 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 16 starts) takes the mound for Los Angeles and veteran Gerrit Cole (3-4, 4.04 ERA, 47 strikeouts in 9 starts) starts for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Los Angeles (-115),   New York (-105)

Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+140),   New York +1.5 (-170)

Run Total: over 9 (-120),   under 9 (even)

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off the rare feat of winning back-to-back World Series crowns when they outlasted the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3. They captured their second straight title in dramatic fashion after winning Games 6 and 7 in Toronto. The Dodgers became the first team to repeat as champions since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. 

If Los Angeles wins World Series title again this year, they’ll become the third team in MLB history to win three straight championships joining the New York Yankees (1936-1939, 1949-1953, 1998-2000) and the Oakland A’s (1972-1974).

The signing of two-way, superstar Shohei Ohtani in December 2023 was the catalyst for the Dodgers winning back-to-back World Series crowns. Prior to Ohtani’s arrival, the Dodgers would consistently produce excellent regular season records but would come up short in the postseason. A glaring illustration of Los Angeles’s postseason shortcomings was the 2022 and 2023 campaigns — the 2 seasons before Ohtani was acquired — when the Dodgers finished with records of 111-51 (2022) and 100-62 (2023), but failed to win a postseason series and only won a total of one game over both postseasons. The San Diego Padres eliminated the 111-win Dodgers 3-1 in the second round of the 2022 playoffs and they were swept (3-0) by the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023.

The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a then-record 10-year, $700 million dollar deal after he took home the 2023 AL Most Valuable Player award with the Los Angeles Angels. Ohtani compiled a stellar 6-year (2018-2023) tenure with the Angels where he captured 2 AL MVPs in 2021 and 2023, and surpassed the 40-homer mark in both of those seasons. 

Shohei Ohtani’s first two seasons with the Dodgers were extraordinary. In addition to winning back-to-back World Series crowns, Ohtani’s debut season in Dodger Blue saw him compile arguably the greatest individual season in MLB history when he hit .310 with 54 homers, 130 RBI, 59 steals and 38 doubles across 159 games. He became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. Ohtani blasted 55 homers in his second season with the Dodgers last year. 

Winning back-to-back World Series crowns did not stop the Dodgers from making a big splash in the offseason. Los Angeles signed slugger Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal in January. The 29-year-old, four-time All-Star established himself as one of the elite power hitters over the previous 5 seasons with the Astros and Cubs.

Los Angeles entered the 2026 season as the favorite to win the National League pennant (+210) and the World Series (+225), and they appear to be well on their way to winning both for a third straight year. Los Angeles owns the MLB’s best record at 61-36, and they hold a resounding 11.5 game lead over the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks (49-47) in the National League West. The Dodgers will likely win the NL West for the 13th time over the last 14 seasons.

What puts the Dodgers head and shoulders above the rest of MLB is the fact that they possess arguably the best hitting lineup and pitching staff in baseball. On offense, the Dodgers rank 1st in run differential (+142) and on-base percentage (.343), and 2nd in runs scored (506), batting average (.262) and slugging percentage (.434). On the mound, the Dodgers rank 1st in WHIP (1.14) and quality starts (53), 2nd in shut outs (10) and 3rd in ERA (3.55). 

The Dodgers had four players voted in as starters in Tuesday’s All-Star game. First baseman Freddie Freeman (.290, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 23 doubles in 94 gms), third baseman Max Muncy (.259, 17 HR, 40 RBI in 89 gms), outfielder Andy Pages (.270, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 21 doubles in 96 gms) and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (.293, 22 HR, 58 RBI in 88 gms) received starting nods in the Midsummer Classic. Ohtani sat out of Tuesday’s All-Star game due to a nagging left knee issue. Starting pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Justin Wrobleski were also selected as All-Stars. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

The New York Yankees posted back-to-back 94-68 finishes over the last two seasons. The 94 wins in 2024 earned the No. 1 seed in the American League playoffs and they parlayed that into a trip to the World Series. Last year, division rival Toronto also finished with 94 wins and earned the tiebreaker over the Yankees which allowed Toronto to secure the top seed in the AL playoffs and dropped the Yankees to the fourth seed. Toronto went on to eliminate New York 3-1 in the divisional round. 

New York falling short of a second consecutive World Series appearance last year did not lead to any showy transactions in the offseason. New York’s biggest offseason move was re-signing star slugger Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162 million dollar deal. New York traded for Bellinger prior to the 2025 season after superstar Juan Soto departed as a free agent. The Yankees also welcomed back veteran star Gerrit Cole, who missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. Cole takes the mound tonight against the Dodgers.

The first half of the 2026 season has been a mixed bag for the Yankees as a team. The positives are their 54-42 record is the second-best mark in the American League and they also boast one of the MLB’s top offenses and pitching staffs in MLB. New York leads MLB in homers (142) and ERA (3.39). The negatives are substantial injuries to reigning back-to-back AL MVP Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton and pitcher Max Fried contributed to a June swoon that began on June 18.

New York’s three-week slump saw their record go from 45-27 on June 17 to 50-42 on July 9, and it allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to leapfrog them for first place in the American League East. Tampa Bay (56-38) is now 3 games ahead of New York in the division. With everyone else in the American League either well below .500 or struggling to stay at .500, New York could find themselves in a similar position as last season where they finish with a fantastic record, but end up having a division rival finishing ahead of them which drops them to the fourth seed.

Last year it was Toronto who finished ahead of the Yankees, and this year it may be Tampa Bay. Toronto finishing ahead of New York in 2025 was likely the difference between a second straight trip to the World Series for the Yankees, as opposed to their season ending in the second round. 

The emergence of third-year first baseman Ben Rice was one of the biggest storylines for New York over the first half of the season. The 27-year-old Rice concluded the first half of the year, hitting .279, with 29 homers, 68 RBI and 15 doubles over 91 games. Rice leads the team in batting average, homers and RBI. His 29 homers ranks third in MLB. He started in Tuesday’s All-Star game. It was his first appearance in the game.

Ben Rice’s emergence has been critical for the Yankees due to the injuries suffered by sluggers Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge has not played since May 31 due to a rib injury, and there is still no timetable for his return. Rice is displaying Judge-like power and the Yankees will likely lean on him to lead them while Judge remains out.

Starting pitcher Cam Schlittler becoming New York’s ace in year two was also a big storyline for the Yankees over the first half of the season. The 25-year-old, right-hander is currently 9-5 with a 2.05 ERA and 137:25 K:BB across 20 starts. His 2.05 ERA ranks second in MLB and his 137 strikeouts ranks fourth. Much like Ben Rice, Schlittler’s production was critical for a Yankees pitching staff that has been damaged by injuries to starters Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.  Fried (19 wins) and Rodon (18 wins) combined to go 37-14 last season.

THE PICK: DODGERS (Moneyline)

After slumping heading into the All-Star break, I expect the MLB-leading Dodgers to rebound after the 5-day break and get a win at Yankee Stadium tonight. Take the Dodgers on the Moneyline!