NBA Playoff Picks 5/21 – Cavs @ Knicks

The Eastern Conference Finals continue tonight with Game Two between the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30 in the regular season) and the third-seeded New York Knicks (53-29) at Madison Square Garden on ESPN. New York took a 1-0 lead after picking up an improbable 115-104 overtime win in the series opener on Tuesday night. New York enters tonight’s contest on a seven-game winning streak.

This is the fifth all-time playoff meeting between New York and Cleveland. New York won all four of the previous matchups in 1978, 1995, 1996 and 2023. The 2023 first-round battle between the fourth-seeded Cavs and fifth-seeded Knicks sort of foreshadowed the greatness of Jalen Brunson, who outdueled Cleveland’s superstar Donovan Mitchell as the Knicks dispatched of the Cavs 4-1. The 2023 postseason was Brunson’s first as a New York Knick. Since then, Brunson has shown himself to be an exceptional postseason performer over his four years with the team.

New York is a 6.5-point favorite and the total is 215.5.

Both teams entered the Eastern Conference Finals on completely different paths as Cleveland needed the full seven games to advance past fifth-seeded Toronto in the first round of the playoffs, and top-seeded Detroit in the second round. On the other hand, New York annihilated six-seeded Atlanta — winning three straight games by an average margin of 32 points after falling behind 2-1 — and swept seventh-seeded Philadelphia.

New York outscored Atlanta and Philadelphia by a combined 194 points over the first two rounds of the playoffs. They set an NBA record for the largest margin of victory by a team through its first 10 playoff games. New York finished off the 76ers 144-114 at Philadelphia in Game 4 on May 10. They had 9 days off before Game 1 against Cleveland on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Cleveland routed the Pistons 125-94 in Game 7 at Detroit on May 17, which was just 2 days before they played New York in Game 1.

The rest vs. rust theory would be tested in the series opener with New York having 9 days off verses Cleveland having just 2 days off. Despite coming out rusty for most of the game, New York was able to pull off one of the most stunning comebacks in playoff history, overcoming a 22-point (93-71) fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Cleveland 115-104 in overtime.

Both teams began Game 1 rusty which resulted in a low-scoring quarter and New York emerging with a 23-16 after one quarter of play. The Cavaliers and Knicks each went 1-9 from beyond the arc in the first quarter. Cleveland caught fire in the second quarter outscoring New York 35-23 which allowed them to take a slim 48-46 lead at halftime.

Cleveland asserted their dominance early in the third quarter as they built and maintained a double-digit lead through the midway point of the fourth quarter. The brilliance of superstar guard Donovan Mitchell, along with timely three-point shooting from Sam Merrill and Max Strus were big factors in Cleveland seizing control of the game in the second half.

With Cleveland ahead 93-71 with 7:40 remaining in regulation, New York went on an electrifying 30-8 run to tie the game at 101 and force overtime. New York’s onslaught continued in overtime as they outscored the shellshocked Cavaliers 14-3 in the extra period to win by 11 (115-104). New York outscored Cleveland 44-11 to close the game.

After shooting just 2-for-19 from beyond the arc in the first half, New York shot 8-for-13 in the second half and overtime. Teams had been 1-594 when trailing by 22 or more points in the fourth quarter in the last 30 postseasons prior to New York’s comeback victory in Game 1.

Jalen Brunson delivered another scintillating playoff performance for the Knicks in Game 1 by pouring in a game-high 38 points (15-29 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 7-10 FT) across 46 minutes. He scored 15 points in the fourth quarter which spearheaded New York’s comeback. Brunson has eclipsed the 30-point mark in four of his last seven postseason games.

It took the Knicks three and a half quarters to wake up from their slumber and resemble the juggernaut they’d been through the first 10 games of the postseason. The Knicks totaled just 71 points through the first 41 minutes of game action, but followed that up with 44 points over the final 12 minutes of game action.

Donovan Mitchell finished with a team-high 29 points (12-23 FG, 4-11 3Pt, 1-1) and collected a career-high 6 steals in 41 minutes for Cleveland in the loss.

Can the Cavs bounce back from such a demoralizing loss? The Cavaliers entered the series as the underdog (+215) to win the series. The fact that they had the red-hot Knicks down by 22 points in the fourth quarter and were unable to close them out could be too much for them to overcome mentally.

The struggles of James Harden in Game 1 may become a huge issue for the Cavaliers going forward. After finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference last year at 64-18, and suffering a second-round flameout against the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers — who needed just 5 games (4-1) to oust the top-seeded Cavs — Cleveland made the decision to acquire the 36-year-old superstar Harden at the February trade deadline.

Adding James Harden was considered a win-now move for Cleveland who had yet to make it past the second round of the postseason despite having a franchise player in Donovan Mitchell since the 2022-23 season. Cleveland has now advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018 — LeBron James’ last year with the team so the acquisition of Harden can be considered a success. Cleveland’s last appearance in the Conference Finals without LeBron James was in 1992 when Brad Daugherty and Mark Price were leading the team.

James Harden produced more turnovers (6) than made field goals (5) in the Game 1 loss to New York. Harden was also targeted by the Knicks defensively in the fourth quarter and overtime — specifically by Jalen Brunson — which fueled the Knicks stunning fourth quarter comeback.

Despite amassing a Hall of Fame career over his 17 NBA seasons, James Harden has developed a reputation for coming up short in the playoffs. Harden can somewhat atone for his past playoff shortcomings if he can elevate his level of play and Cleveland eliminates New York. Harden has only made one NBA Finals appearance (2012) in his illustrious NBA career.

There are 3 glaring storylines for New York going forward. The first is, the continued postseason excellence from Jalen Brunson. When the 29-year-old, Villanova product signed with the New York Knicks as a free agent in July 2022, it was considered a ho-hum move. But Brunson developed into one of the great players in New York’s storied franchise history due to his robust scoring and late-game heroics in the regular season and playoffs.

Jalen Brunson averaged 26.1 ppg over his 4 years in the regular season and upped it to 29.5 ppg in the postseason. Brunson’s arrival in New York has also resurrected the franchise, which became somewhat of a laughingstock during a 21-year period (2002-2022) prior to his arrival. He’s led the Knicks to the Eastern Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons.

The second storyline for New York is whether they can keep up their torrid pace. New York has now won 8 straight playoff games since falling behind 2-1 to Atlanta in the first round. Seven of New York’s 8 wins have been by double-digits. Their 51-point series-clinching win (140-89) at Atlanta in Game 6 on April 30 set a franchise record.

The third storyline for New York is the health of versatile and uber-athletic forward OG Anunoby. Anunoby exited New York’s 108-102 Game 2 win against Philadelphia on May 6. He missed the final 2 games of that series but returned for the series opener on Tuesday after a 13-day layoff. The 28-year-old star forward also suffered a hamstring injury two years ago against the Indiana Pacers in the second round, which knocked him out of the final 4 games of that series — where Indiana eliminated the Knicks in 7 games.

OG Anunoby’s terrific play in the postseason has played a big role in New York’s dominance through 11 games. In 9 postseason contests, Anunoby is averaging 20.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1 block and 2.4 steals per game. His playoff numbers are up from his regular season averages of 16.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.

After coming out rusty for most of Game 1, New York resembled their dominant selves over the final 7-plus minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime by outscoring Cleveland 44-11. I expect the Knicks to pick up where they left off in Game 1 and win their 9th straight playoff game. Lay the Points and take the Knicks!