NBA Playoff Picks 5/18 – Spurs @ Thunder

The Western Conference Finals tip off tonight with one of the most highly-anticipated playoff matchups in league history as the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs (62-20 in the regular season) visit the top-seeded and defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) at Paycom Center on NBC.

Both teams quickly established themselves as the NBA’s cream of the crop early in the season with the Thunder getting off to a blistering 24-1 start and Spurs center Victor Wembanyama playing at an MVP level from the moment the season began on Oct. 22. Wembanyama’s stellar 2025-26 campaign played a big role in transforming San Antonio into an elite team. San Antonio and Oklahoma City finished with the best two records in the NBA this year.

San Antonio dominated Oklahoma City during the regular season, winning four of the five matchups. Three of San Antonio’s wins were by double digits. The Spurs accounted for four of the Thunder’s 18 losses during the regular season. Their tremendous regular season success against the defending champion Thunder has many observers believing they are the only team who can prevent a repeat for the reigning NBA champs.

Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point favorite and the total is 219.5.

This is the seventh postseason meeting between the franchises. They faced off in 1982, 2002 and 2005 when the Oklahoma City Thunder were known as the Seattle Supersonics. The last three matchups took place in 2012, 2014 and 2016 after the Seattle Supersonics moved to Oklahoma City and became the Thunder in July 2008.

San Antonio is 4-2 against the Oklahoma City franchise in the postseason. The Spurs were 3-0 against Seattle, but are 1-2 against Oklahoma City.

The most notable playoff matchups between the franchises took place in 2012 and 2014 when San Antonio and Oklahoma City met in the Western Conference Finals. In 2012, an upstart Thunder team led by the youthful superstar trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden upset the top-seeded Spurs 4-2. San Antonio won the first two games of that series and were riding a 10-game playoff winning streak, before OKC stormed back to win the final four games of the series and advanced to the NBA Finals.

San Antonio got their revenge two years later in the 2014 Western Conference Finals when they eliminated Oklahoma City 4-2 en route to capturing the 2014 NBA Finals. That was the last NBA championship for the Spurs.

Yesterday, Oklahoma City superstar guard was named the NBA’s MVP for a second straight season. He became the 14th player in NBA history to win the award in back-to-back seasons. The last player to win back-to-back MVPs was Nikola Jokic in 2021 and 2022. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.7 steals per game on 55.3 percent shooting from the floor across 68 regular season games.

After successfully tanking during the 2022-23 to finish 22-60, the San Antonio Spurs landed the No. 1 overall pick and were able to select the consensus top pick in 7-foot-4 phenom Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama was one of the most hyped draft prospects in NBA history and was projected to be an immediate impact player who would immediately resurrect San Antonio.

Over his first two NBA seasons, Victor Wembanyama achieved tremendous individual success, being named the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year in his debut season and making the All-Star team in year two, but his excellent play did not translate into wins. The Spurs finished 22-60 during Wembanayama’s rookie year, and 34-48 in his second season. They didn’t come close to making the playoffs.

Everything clicked for San Antonio this season as Victor Wembanyama continued to play at an elite level in year three, while the supporting cast around him improved significantly. San Antonio set the tone for how their season was going to go on opening night when they routed the Dallas Mavericks 125-92 on the road. Wembanyama was extraordinary in that game, finishing with 40 points (15-21 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 9-11 FT), 15 rebounds and 3 blocks across 30 minutes.

San Antonio was off to the races after dismantling Dallas on opening night. They went on to beat the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder three times in the month of December. The Spurs concluded the regular season by winning 30 of their final 34 games. They finished with a 62-20 record, which was a 28-game improvement over the 2024-25 season. San Antonio’s 62 wins was their most since 2015-16 season when they won 67 games.

San Antonio entered the postseason as the No. 2 seed, and faced the seventh-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the opening round. The Spurs dispatched of the Trail Blazers 4-1. Victor Wembanyama poured in a game-high 35 points in his playoff debut, a 111-98 Game One victory. Wembanyama scored 21 of his 35 points in the first half, which set an NBA record for most points in an opening half by a player making his playoff debut. His 35 points set a Spurs franchise record for the most in a playoff debut.

The Spurs did get somewhat of a scare in Game 2 when Wembanyama fell face first to the floor and suffered a concussion in the second quarter. Portland would go on to upset San Antonio 106-103 and tie the series at 1. The concussion sidelined Wembanyama for Game 3 in Portland, but San Antonio prevailed 120-108 without him. Wembanyama returned for Games 4 and 5 which ended up being easy wins for the Spurs.

San Antonio went on to face the playoff-tested and sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves — who were coming off back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances — in the second round. After a tough first four games where the series was tied at 2, San Antonio routed Minnesota in the final two games to put away Minnesota. The Spurs won Game Five 126-97 at home and won Game Six 139-109 in Minnesota.

Victor Wembanyama has maintained his stellar level of play in the postseason by averaging 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.1 blocks and 1.4 threes per game on 53.8 percent shooting from the floor across 10 playoff games. The talented duo of second-year star Stephon Castle (19.9 ppg, 6.1 asts, 4.9 rebs, 2 threes, 49% from 2, 44% from 3 in 11 gms) and point guard De’Aaron Fox (18.8 ppg, 5.8 asts, 1.6 threes, 1.1 stls, 46.2% from 2 in 11 gms) are also playing very well alongside Wembanyama as they did throughout the regular season.

Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder won a franchise-record 68 games and captured the franchise’s second overall NBA championship (1979 Seattle Supersonics) and first as the Oklahoma City Thunder. They became the youngest team to win a title (average age of 25.6 years) since the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers. The championship run was led by superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who took home the 2024-25 regular season and NBA Finals MVP awards.

With reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the overwhelming majority of last year’s championship team returning, the Oklahoma City Thunder entered the 2025-26 season as a plus-250 favorite to win the NBA title and repeat as champions. And the Thunder quickly showed the rest of the NBA that they were still the team to beat after getting off to a historic 24-1 start.

Oklahoma City’s 24-1 start matched the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors — who finished with the best regular-season record in NBA history at 73-9. It looked as if the Thunder could surpass Golden State’s 73-win mark due to the fact that 18 of their 24 wins were by double digits and 9 of those wins were by 20 points or more. A 16-12 stretch after the 24-1 start ended any hopes of Oklahoma City matching or exceeding the 2016 Warriors but they finished the regular season with the NBA’s best record at 64-18.

The Thunder entered the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for a third straight season. They are looking to become the first team to repeat as champions since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018. Oklahoma City’s playoff journey began against the eighth-seeded Phoenix Suns. The Thunder swept Phoenix in the opening round and were barely challenged. They won by margins of 35, 13, 12 and 9, respectively.

Oklahoma City advanced to face LeBron James and the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in the second round. The Thunder proceeded to sweep the Lakers, winning the first three games by an average of 19.6 points per game before they gutted out a 115-110 victory in Game 4 at Los Angeles. Oklahoma City is the sixth reigning NBA champion to start the postseason with a record of 8-0 or better.

The Thunder should get a boost with the return of guard Jalen Williams from a left hamstring injury. After experiencing a breakout campaign last season in which Williams was named an All-Star for the first time, the 25-year-old guard was limited to just 33 games this season due to wrist and hamstring injuries. He’s missed 9 of Oklahoma City’s 11 postseason games due to a left hamstring injury.

Six of Oklahoma City’s eight playoff wins have been by double digits. Their last game was exactly one week ago today on May 11. It will be interesting to see whether rust will play a factor for the Thunder in Game One tonight.

It looks like we have an irresistible force meeting an immovable object situation here in this Spurs-Thunder series as San Antonio looks invincible when Victor Wembanyama plays a full game, while Oklahoma City has yet to lose a playoff game. San Antonio dominated the Thunder during the regular season, and it’s hard to go against Victor Wembanyama right now. Take the Points and the Spurs tonight!