NBA Playoff Picks 5/18 – Nuggets @ Thunder Game 7

The Western Conference Semifinal round concludes today with a win-or-go home Game Seven as the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets visit the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center on ABC. Denver staved off elimination and evened the series after picking up a 119-107 win at home in Game Six on Thursday night. The winner of today’s game will face the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals starting on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is an 8-point favorite and the total is 213.5.

It’s fitting that a series which features the top two NBA MVP candidates in Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will come down to a Game Seven. Both players are among three finalists for the Most Valuable Player Award. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is the third finalist. Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite (-3000) to win the award. Regardless of who takes home the MVP trophy, the winner of today’s game will likely have bragging rights over the loser. 

These two franchises will be meeting in a win-or-go home game for a second time. The first meeting occurred in the first-round of the 1994 playoffs when the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise was located in Seattle and known as the Seattle Supersonics. The 1993-94 Seattle Supersonics also had the best record in the NBA (63-19) — like Oklahoma City (68-14) does in 2025 — and faced the No. 8 seed Denver Nuggets (42-40) in a first-round, best-of-five-series. 

The 1994 series went the full five games with Denver winning Game 5 at Seattle 98-94 in overtime to pull off one of the biggest upsets in NBA postseason history. It marked the first time that a No. 8 seed beat the No. 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs. Its been done five times since then.

SERIES RECAP: GAMES 1 & 2

The question of whether rest vs. rust makes a difference was a factor to begin this series as top-seeded Oklahoma City had nine days off before Game One (May 5) after completing a four-game sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies on April 26. Meanwhile, Denver only had two days off after outlasting the Los Angeles Clippers in a hard-fought, seven-game series on May 3.

Rust prevailed in Game One as the well-rested Thunder dropped the series-opener 121-119. Oklahoma City blew several double-digit leads throughout the game in the upset loss to Denver. The Thunder held leads of 14 (55-41) in the second quarter, 10 (60-50) at the half and 11 (113-102) late in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City’s inability to hit free throws and their curious decision to foul Denver with a 3-point lead in the final seconds opened the door for Denver to steal Game One. 

Aaron Gordon swished a three-pointer with 2.1 seconds left in the game to give Denver the lead and eventual win. Nikola Jokic amassed an astonishing stat line of 42 points (15-29 FG, 10-13 FT, 2-6 3Pt), 22 rebounds, six assists, two blocks, and a steal in 42 minutes. Jokic became just the fourth player in NBA history to produce at least 40 points, 20 rebounds and 5 assists in a playoff game. 

Aaron Gordon added 22 points (7-15 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 5-5 FT) and 14 rebounds for Denver, in addition to hitting the game-winner. It was Gordon’s second game-winning shot of the postseason. He converted a dunk at the buzzer in Denver’s 101-99 Game Four victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers on April 26. That Game Four win in the first-round was critical for Denver because it tied the series at two, and is likely the reason Denver was able to advance to the second round. 

Oklahoma City obliterated Denver 149-106 in Game Two. The Thunder dominated from the opening tip outscoring the Nuggets 45-21 in the first quarter. Oklahoma City led 87-56 at the half. Their 87 first-half points set an NBA playoff record, surpassing the 86 scored by the Cleveland Cavaliers against Golden State in Game Four of the 2017 NBA Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points (11-13 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 11-11 FT) in just three quarters of work in the Game 2 win.

GAMES 3 & 4 RECAP

The series switched venues to Denver for Games Three and Four with each team winning once. Denver bounced back from their 43-point loss in Game 2 and picked up a 113-104 overtime win at home in Game 3. Just as in Game One, Aaron Gordon hit a clutch three-pointer that propelled Denver to a win. This time around, Gordon hit a game-tying three-pointer with 27.1 seconds left to even the game at 102. Denver went on to outscore Oklahoma City 11-2 in overtime to get the win. Denver had four players — Jamal Murray (27), Aaron Gordon (22), Michael Porter Jr. (21), Nikola Jokic (20) — with  at least 20 points in the Game 3 victory. Jaylen Williams scored a game-high 32 points for Oklahoma City in the loss.

Oklahoma City rebounded with a late 1990’s-early 2000’s style, rugged 92-86 victory in Game Four on Mother’s Day one week ago. The Thunder held a 17-8 lead after the first quarter. The 25 combined points tied the record for fewest points in a first quarter in the shot clock era. The two previous playoff games that saw this dubious mark occurred in a 2002 matchup between Detroit (16) and Toronto (9), and a 1999 Portland (14)-Utah (11) matchup. 

Despite the offensive futility in the first half, Denver was able to grab an 8-point lead (71-63) early in the fourth quarter.  Oklahoma City then went on a 14-2 run to take a 77-73 lead. Oklahoma City was able to put the game away in the final minutes thank to clutch shots and free throws from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The two All-Stars combined to score 14 of Oklahoma City’s final 15 points of the game. Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City with 25 points. Nikola Jokic scored 27 for Denver in the loss.

GAMES 5 & 6 RECAP

Both teams held serve at home in Games Five and Six. Oklahoma City rallied for a 112-105 win in Game 5 at home. Oklahoma City’s All-Star duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams put Denver away in the final minutes for a second straight game. With the scored tied at 100 and two minutes to go in regulation, Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scored OKC’s final 12 points of the game. Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 31 points (12-23 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), 7 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in 39 minutes. Jokic amassed 44 points (17-25 FG, 5-7 3Pt, 5-5 FT) and 15 rebounds for Denver in the loss

Denver evened the series with a 119-107 victory in Game 6 at home to stave off elimination. Game Six took on a similar theme to most of the games in this series where the winning team used a second-half surge to come out on top. Denver used a 24-10 run over the final 7 minutes of the third quarter and opening minutes of the fourth to turn a 72-69 deficit into a 93-82 lead. The Nuggets increased the lead to 109-93 with 3:21 remaining in regulation, which put the game out of reach. 

Denver’s second-half surge was ignited by an unlikely player in second-year reserve Julian Strawther. The 23-year-old, Gonzaga product scored all 15 of his points in the second half. Strawther had scored a total of 17 points in the postseason prior to his breakout performance in Game 6. 

Nikola Jokic finished with 29 points (9-14 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 10-12 FT), 14 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals and a block over 41 minutes in the Game 6 win. Christian Braun added a playoff career-high 23 points (8-14 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT) along with 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and a block in 39 minutes. Despite being sick for 24 hours prior to the game, Jamal Murray finished with 25 points (9-19 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 5-6 FT). 8 rebounds and 7 assists in 42 minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 32 points.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN GAME 7

As expected, the two leading MVP candidates have been extraordinary in this series. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 14.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2 steals, 1 block and 2 threes on 47.3 percent shooting from the floor in the 6 games against Oklahoma City. MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous Alexander is averaging 28.8 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 threes on 51.3 percent shooting from the floor against Denver. We’ll likely get an epic statistical showdown between both superstars in Game 7.  

There are two major injury concerns for Denver heading into Game Seven. Aaron Gordon suffered a hamstring strain late in Game 6. He is listed as a game-time decision for today’s contest. Gordon’s numbers have gone done in this series — 18.9 ppg vs. LAC and 14.5 vs OKC — but he has hit several clutch baskets in the postseason for Denver. Jamal Murray is also listed as questionable due to an illness. He was also questionable for Game Six due to the same illness, but was able to play through it. Murray (22.5 ppg) and Gordon (16.8 ppg) are Denver’s second and third leading scorers in the postseason.  

There has been a 2-day break between Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 today, which could be very beneficial for Denver as they’ve played every other day since April 29 — which was Game Five at home against the Clippers in the first round. Denver defeated the Clippers 131-115 in that one. We’ll see if the extra day of rest gives Denver a boost this afternoon.

THE PICK: THUNDER (-8)

Denver has an extra day of rest for the first time in weeks, but they are playing in a Game 7 for a second straight series. I believe Denver will be playing on fumes in Game 7 this afternoon, and the young Thunder will take full advantage of that. I’m expecting another MVP-caliber performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander today that propels the Thunder to Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. Lay the Points and take the Thunder!

NBA Playoff Picks 5/18 – Nuggets @ Thunder Game 7