NBA Playoff Picks 5/16 – Celtics @ Knicks

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Eastern Conference Semifinals continue tonight with the second-seeded and defending NBA champion Boston Celtics visiting the third-seeded New York Knicks in Game Six on ESPN. New York leads 3-2. Undermanned Boston pounded New York 127-102 in Game Five on Wednesday night to stave off elimination. Boston’s 127 points and 25-point margin of victory in Game Five were series highs.

If New York wins tonight, they’ll advance to the Eastern Conference Finals and face the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers — who ousted the top-seeded, 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in five games. It would be the Knicks first appearance in the conference finals since 2000 — where they lost to the Indiana Pacers. If the Celtics win tonight, Game Seven will be played on Monday in Boston. New York is a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 211.

GAME 5 RECAP

The series took several unexpected turns heading into Game Five. The first was New York leading 3-1. Coming into the series, New York lost all four regular season matchups against Boston, losing by an average margin of 16.3 points. The Knicks had also lost 8 of the last 9 overall against the Celtics over the last two full regular seasons. 

The second unexpected turn was a catastrophic injury suffered by Jayson Tatum late in the fourth quarter of Game Four. Tatum tore his right Achilles tendon as he attempted to plant his foot after OG Anunoby stole a botched pass intended for Tatum. The Celtics superstar forward will miss the remainder of the postseason and a large portion of next season. 

The defending champion Boston Celtics had a daunting task ahead of them in Game Five at home, attempting to overcome a 3-1 series deficit without their best player in Jayson Tatum. A positive note for Boston was they went a combined 16-3 — 9-2 this year and 7-1 last season — without Tatum over the last two seasons. The Celtics defeated Orlando 109-100 in Game Two of their first-round series without Tatum, who missed the contest with a wrist injury. 

With Boston’s season on the line, they came through with a resounding 127-102 defeat of the Knicks in Game Five on Wednesday night. The teams played a nip and tuck first-half with New York going up by 8 (40-32) briefly early in the second quarter after a Miles McBride three-pointer. Boston rallied to tie the game at 59 at the half. 

Boston made what turned out to be a prescient decision after the intermission when they started Luke Kornet at center over Kristaps Porzingis — who has been battling an illness for the entire playoffs. According to Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla, Porzingis “couldn’t breathe” and missed the rest of the game. Kornet ended up having a huge impact in the contest.

The game remained close in the opening minutes of the second half until the 8:51 mark when Boston went on a 16-4 run that increased their lead from 70-68 to 86-72 with 3:51 left in the third quarter. Boston ended the third frame with a 91-76 lead. The Knicks third-quarter struggles were likely aided by Jalen Brunson picking up an astonishing five fouls over a 9-minute stretch in the quarter. Brunson had dominated the second halves of New York’s three wins in the series, so the fouls limited his ability to put the team on his back in Game Five.

With Brunson on the bench saddled by foul trouble, Boston opened the fourth quarter on an 8-1 run, which stretched their lead to 99-77. The Celtics never looked back after that outscoring the Knicks 36-26 over the final 12 minutes to win going away. Boston outscored New York 68-43 in the decisive second half as they picked up their most lopsided win of the series. It was also Boston’s first home victory of the series.

Derrick White scored a game-high 34 points (9-16 FG, 7-13 3Pt, 9-11 FT) and had three blocks over 40 minutes for Boston in the win. It was White’s second 30-point game of the postseason. Jaylen Brown amassed 26 points (9-17 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 5-8 FT), 12 assists, 8 rebounds, and a steal over 37 minutes for Boston. Luke Kornet registered 10 points (5-5 FG), 9 rebounds and 7 blocks over 26 minutes, making the most of his increased playing time in place of Kristaps Porzingis. 

Josh Hart scored a team-high 24 points (7-15 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 5-6 FT) and pulled down 7 rebounds in 36 minutes for New York. It was his highest scoring output of the postseason. Jalen Brunson contributed 22 points (7-17 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 7-9 FT) and 6 assists in 33 minutes before fouling out. Karl-Anthony Towns added 19 points (5-11 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 8-9 FT), 8 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block over 29 minutes. 

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT

As Boston plays its second game without its superstar Jayson Tatum, they’ll likely lean heavily on the duo of four-time All-Star Jaylen Brown (22.3 pts, 7.2 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1 stl, 1.8 threes in 10 playoff games) and Derrick White (19.9 pts, 5.5 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.2 blks, 3.8 threes, 47.8% from 2, 39.6% from 3 in 10 playoff games) again. Brown was the Finals MVP when Boston won the title last season. White emerged as Boston’s third-best player in the postseason last year.

Payton Pritchard (12 pts, 2.3 rebs, 2.6 threes, 44.9% from 2, 41.3% from 3 in 10 playoff games) will also be expected to elevate his game in Tatum’s absence. The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year recorded a playoff-high 39 minutes in Boston’s Game 5 win. His 17 shot attempts were also a postseason high. If Porzingis is unable to go tonight, Luke Kornet may be in store for more big minutes. Kornett’s 7 blocks in Game 5 were 2 shy of the franchise record set by Robert Williams III in 2021. 

Jalen Brunson has been New York’s postseason star for three consecutive seasons since he signed with the Knicks as a free agent in July 2022. He’s posting averages of 26.8 points, 7.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 3.6 steals and 3 threes on 42.9 percent shooting from the floor and 39.5 percent from long distance against Boston in this series. Brunson is averaging 36.3 points per game (3 games) after a New York loss in the 2025 playoffs. So, we should expect a big game from Brunson tonight.

THE PICK: KNICKS (-2.5)

Boston gave an inspired effort on Wednesday night at home in their first game without Jayson Tatum. They’ve played well without Tatum over the past 2 seasons as evidenced by their 17-3 overall record. Despite that, I don’t think the Celtics have quite enough to get by the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in this one. I expect Knicks superstar Jalen Brunson to have another huge scoring game in Game Six tonight, and for the Knicks to pull out their customary hard-fought win in the final minutes or seconds. Lay the Points and take the Knicks!