NBA Playoff Picks 5/9 – Thunder @ Nuggets

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Semifinals switches venues for a pivotal Game Three as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 in the regular season) visit the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets (50-32 in the regular season) tonight at Ball Arena on ESPN. The series is tied at one after Oklahoma City demolished Denver 149-106 on Wednesday night in Oklahoma City. The winner of Game Three in a best-of-seven series that is tied 1-1 goes on to advance to the next round 73.3% of the time. Oklahoma City is a 5-point favorite, and the total is 232.5.

This series features the top two MVP candidates in Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver center Nikola Jokic. Both players are among three finalists for the 2024-25 Most Valuable Player award. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is the third finalist. Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite (-3000) to win the award. It would be his first MVP nod. 

The franchises are squaring off for a third time in the postseason. Their first playoff matchup occurred in 1994 when the Oklahoma City franchise was located in Seattle and known as the Seattle Supersonics. That 1994 series made NBA history as the No. 8 seed Denver Nuggets upset the No. 1 seed Seattle Supersonics 3-2 in the best-of-five series. It marked the first time in playoff history that a No. 8 seed defeated a No.1 seed in the first round. It’s been done five times since then.

The second playoff matchup took place in the first round of the 2011 playoffs when the upstart and fourth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder — led by the emerging trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden — dispatched of the fifth-seeded Denver Nuggets 4-1. That young OKC team would advance to the Western Conference finals. It was also the first-ever playoff series win for the franchise after relocating to Oklahoma City.

SERIES RECAP

The “rest vs. rust” theory was tested in Game One as top-seeded Oklahoma City had nine days off before the series opener (May 5) after completing a sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies on April 26. On the other hand, Denver only had two days off after outlasting the Los Angeles Clippers in a hard-fought, seven-game series on May 3. 

Game One saw an evenly played first half until Oklahoma City was able to build a 14-point lead (55-41) late in the second quarter. The Thunder held a 60-50 lead at halftime. Oklahoma City maintained a double-digit lead for the majority of the third quarter until a scoring barrage from Russell Westbrook — he scored 8 points over the final 3:29 of the quarter — pulled Denver to within five points (90-85) by the close of the third frame.

Oklahoma City temporarily thwarted off Denver’s comeback bid as they built up another double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. The Thunder led 113-102 after a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander three-pointer with 4:31 left in the game. Denver responded with a 12-2 run that reduced the deficit to 115-114 with 1:07 remaining in regulation. A Gilgeous-Alexander dunk with 11 seconds left gave the Thunder a 119-116 lead.

After taking a 119-116 with 11 seconds left in the game, Oklahoma City decided to intentionally foul Aaron Gordon on Denver’s next possession — opting to send Denver to the line for two free throws instead of allowing them to attempt a game-tying three-pointer. The decision ended up backfiring on Oklahoma City as less than a second ran off the clock, and Gordon knocked down both free throws to pull Denver to within 119-118 with 10.1 seconds remaining. 

Denver fouled Chet Holmgren with 9.1 seconds left. Holmgren missed both free throws. Denver’s Christian Braun secured the rebound and passed it to Russell Westbrook, who found a wide-open Aaron Gordon at the three-point line. Gordon swished the wide open three with 2.1 seconds left to give Denver a 121-119 lead, Jalen Williams missed a 55-foot heave at the buzzer, allowing Denver to escape with an improbable comeback win. 

Nikola Jokic amassed a huge stat line in the Game One win finishing with 42 points (15-29 FG, 10-13 FT, 2-6 3PT). 22 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in 42 minutes. Jokic became just the fourth player in NBA history to produce at least 40 points, 20 rebounds, and 5 assists in a playoff game. Aaron Gordon added 22 points (7-15 FG, 3-6 3PT, 5-5 FT) and 14 rebounds for Denver, in addition to hitting the game-winner. It was Gordon’s second game-winner of the postseason. He converted a dunk at the buzzer in Denver’s 101-99 Game Four victory at the Clippers on April 26.

Game Two was never in doubt as Oklahoma City jumped on Denver from the opening tip and never looked back. Oklahoma City set league and team records in their 149-106 thrashing of Denver on Wednesday night. The Thunder’s 87 first-half points set an NBA playoff record for first-half points, surpassing the 86 scored by Cleveland against Golden State in Game Four of the 2017 NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points (11-13 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 11-11 FT) in just three quarters of work for Oklahoma City. He added 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 33.5 ppg over the first two games of this series. Oklahoma City had 8 players score in double figures in Game Two. Russell Westbrook scored a team-high 19 points (5-11 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 8-10 FT) off the bench for Denver.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Behind the stellar play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and shrewd personnel decisions from upper management, the Oklahoma City Thunder quickly transitioned into one of the elite teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City went from a dismal 22-50 record in 2020-21 to finishing a league-best 68-14 this year. The Thunder’s 68 wins set a franchise-record that was held by the 1995-96 Seattle Supersonics, who finished 64-18 and advanced to the 1996 NBA Finals. 

MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander completed his finest season to date in 2024-25, registering a league-leading 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1 block and 2.1 threes per game, while shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and 89.8 percent from the free throw line across 76 games. His points and assists are career-highs. Emerging forward Jalen Williams (21.6 pts, 5.3 rebs, 5.1 asts, 1.6 stls, 48.4% from the floor in 69 games) elevating his game to an All-Star level was also crucial to Oklahoma City’s tremendous success this year. 

Oklahoma City swept the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs to advance to the Western Conference semis. They obliterated Memphis 131-80 in Game One, it was the 5th largest margin of victory in NBA postseason history. The Thunder picked up an easy 118-99 win in Game Two against Memphis. 

Games Three and Four in Memphis were a lot more competitive. Game Three saw the Thunder rally from a 29-point deficit to pick up a 114-108 victory. Memphis led 69-40 with 2:31 left in the second quarter. Oklahoma City’s comeback may have been aided by an injury to Memphis star Ja Morant, who left the game with a hip injury when Memphis was up 67-40. Morant did not return to the game. Oklahoma City held on for a 117-115 win in Game Four to close out the Grizzlies. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1 block and 1.8 threes in the four-game sweep of Memphis.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: DENVER

In 2023, the Denver Nuggets won the franchise’s first-ever NBA title behind the herculean efforts of superstar center Nikola Jokic. He compiled a historic performance in the NBA Finals where he posted averages of 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 58.3 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from long distance as Denver knocked off the pesky Miami Heat in 5 games. Denver went 16-4 in the 2023 postseason overall.

Since Denver’s epic 2023 postseason run, they’ve experienced some bumps in the road. Last season, the Nuggets won three more games (56) than they did in 2023, when they won the title, but ended up with a lower seed (No. 2) and were upset by the No. 3 seed Minnesota Timberwolves in a contentious, seven-game series in the conference semis. The upstart Timberwolves advanced after winning Game 7 in Denver. 

With the exception of lingering injuries for Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, the 2024-25 season appeared to be coming along fine for Denver until April 8, when they fired head coach Mike Malone out of nowhere. The decision to fire Malone was stunning when you consider there was less than a week to go in the regular season, and Denver was still in a position to finish as high as third in the Western Conference. Malone was the franchise’s all-time leader in wins (471), in addition to winning the franchise’s only NBA title. 

The team cited conflicts with general manager Calvin Booth — who was also fired — as to why Malone was fired. Assistant David Adelman — the son of Hall of Fame coach Rick Adelman — was named the interim coach. Denver rallied to win its final three games of the regular season to finish with a 50-32 record and secure the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. 

Obtaining the fourth seed in the first round of the playoffs was critical for Denver, as hosting Game 7 in the high altitude versus playing Game 7 in Los Angeles, was likely the difference between winning and losing that first-round series against the Clippers. The Clippers looked gassed from start to finish in the 120-101 loss at Denver in Game 7.

THE PICK: NUGGETS (+5)