NFL Playoff Picks – Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs opens with the AFC’s top seed and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1st in AFC West) hosting the fourth-seeded Houston Texans (10-7, 1st in the AFC South) at Arrowhead Stadium. The game kicks off at 4:30 ET on ESPN/ABC. The teams met less than a month ago in Week 11 with Kansas City picking up a 27-19 win at home.

Kansas City has won four in a row against Houston dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs where the Chiefs walloped Houston 51-31 at home in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Chiefs rallied from a 24-0 second quarter deficit to win the game going away and advance to the AFC Championship game. Kansas City is an 8-point favorite and the total is 41.5.

Houston advanced to the divisional round after hammering the visiting Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 one week ago in the wild-card round. The Texans were led by a terrific performance from their defense which intercepted Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times and sacked him four times. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 22 of 33 passes for 282 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the win. Wide receiver Nico Collins caught seven passes for a team-high 122 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas City earned a bye last week after finishing as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City clinched the top seed after picking up a 29-10 win at Pittsburgh in Week 17 on Christmas (Dec. 25). Kansas City rested most of their starters in their Week 18 loss at Denver. The Chiefs star players — Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, etc. — will be well rested coming into this one as this will be their first game in 24 days.

After a contentious split with franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson following the 2020 season, it appeared as if the Houston Texans would be in for a lengthy rebuild after finishing 4-13 in 2021 and 3-13-1 in 2022. But the 2023 NFL draft ended up being the catalyst for a quick turnaround as Houston had two first round picks — their own No. 2 overall pick and the No. 12 pick which they received from Cleveland as part of the Deshaun Watson trade. Houston selected Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick and then traded up 9 spots to select Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr.

The additions of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. paid immediate dividends as Stroud put together a tremendous rookie year in which he threw for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to 5 interceptions across 15 games and was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson amassed 45 tackles and a team rookie single-season record 7.5 sacks en route to being named the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year. Houston increased their win total by 7 games and finished 10-7 in 2023. They won the AFC South division for the first time since 2018 and won a playoff game for the first time since 2019.

Houston entered the 2024 season with tremendous expectations after last season’s success and the additions of playoff-tested, star vets Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Diggs and Mixon were both perennial 1,000-yard producers prior to this season and were expected to solidify an already competent Texans offense and signal a ‘Super Bowl or bust’ theme for the season.

Unfortunately for Houston, a slew of injuries to key players and a slight regression from C.J. Stroud — his touchdown passes dropped from 23 to 20, his passing yards decreased from 4,108 to 3,727 and he threw 7 more interceptions — prevented them from fulfilling their lofty expectations. The injury woes began when Joe Mixon suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 against Chicago that caused him to miss 3 games. Star wide receiver Nico Collins then went down with a hamstring injury on Oct. 6 against Buffalo that kept him out until Nov. 18. Fellow wideouts Stefon Diggs (torn ACL on Oct. 27) and Tank Dell (torn ACL/dislocated kneecap on Dec. 21) suffered season-ending injuries. All of these injuries likely led to the decline in Stroud’s production this season.

Despite the injuries, running back Joe Mixon (1,016 rushing yards, 309 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns in 14 games) and wide receiver Nico Collins (68 catches for 1,006 yards, 7 touchdowns in 12 games) still finished with over 1,000 yards and were the most productive players on the Texans offense. Defensively, All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (54 tackles, 5 interceptions in 17 games), along with defensive ends Danielle Hunter (46 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 17 games) and Will Anderson Jr. (37 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery in 14 games) had terrific seasons and all three were key in Houston’s dominant performance against the Chargers last week.

During the 2017 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up 17 spots to select Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes with the 10th pick in the first round. It seemed like a puzzling move when you consider they had just finished 12-4 and won the AFC West division behind veteran pro bowl quarterback Alex Smith. The move looked even more dubious when Alex Smith produced his best season as a pro in 2017 when he threw for career-highs of 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while Mahomes barely played as a rookie backing up Smith.

On Jan. 30, 2018, Kansas City traded Alex Smith to Washington which cleared the way for Patrick Mahomes to be the starting quarterback and the rest is history. In his first season as a starter, Mahomes was named the NFL’s MVP after passing for an astonishing 50 touchdowns while leading the Chiefs to a 12-4 record and the AFC Championship game. Kansas City had failed to win a playoff game in the previous 2 seasons with Alex Smith despite being the higher seed and playing at home.

In his 7 NFL seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes has already established himself as arguably the greatest NFL quarterback of all time. The 29-year-old superstar’s accolades include 3 Super Bowls, 3 Super Bowl MVP’s and 2 NFL MVP’s. Mahomes now has a chance to lead Kansas City to a third straight Super Bowl title. Kansas City would be the first team in the Super Bowl era (post-1970) to win 3 straight Super Bowls.

Over the last 2 seasons, Patrick Mahomes numbers have taken a slight dip — his 26 touchdown passes this year are tied for the lowest of his career and his 3,928 passing yards are the lowest of his career — as injuries and inconsistency amongst his wide receiving corps have affected his production but he led Kansas City to a Super Bowl win last year and only lost once in the 16 games he started this year. Eleven of Kansas City’s 16 wins were by one score or less which led a number of spectators to proclaim they were getting lucky but they enter the playoffs with 3 straight somewhat decisive wins when the starters have played. This could indicate that the Chiefs are ramping up for another deep postseason run.

After losing star running back Isiah Pacheco (935 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns in 2023) to a fractured fibula in Week 2 and second-year wideout Rashee Rice (938 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 2023) to a torn ACL in Week 4, Kansas City added free agent running back Kareem Hunt (728 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns in 13 games) in September and traded for former pro bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins (41 catches for 437 yards, 4 touchdowns in 10 games) on Oct. 23. Both players — particularly Hunt — have been excellent as fill-in replacements. Pacheco returned in Week 13 while Rice missed the rest of the regular season. Rice has an outside shot at returning at some point in the playoffs.

Venerable tight end Travis Kelce (97 catches for 823 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns in 16 games) and rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy (59 catches for 639 yards, 8 total touchdowns in 16 games) were the most reliable and durable performers on offense for the Chiefs this season. The 35-year-old, future Hall of Famer Kelce led the team in catches and receiving yards. The 21-year-old Worthy was the Chiefs first round pick (No. 28 overall) out of Texas and was clocked with the fastest time 40-yard dash (4.21 seconds) in the history of the draft combine. Offensive linemen Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey were named 1st-Team All Pro’s.

The improvement of Kansas City’s defense over the past two seasons has taken a huge burden off of Patrick Mahomes who is no longer forced to put up massive numbers for the team to win. The defense ranked 9th overall this season and 4th in points allowed (326). Superstar All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones (37 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 15 games) All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie (59 tackles, 2 interceptions, 13 passes defended, 1 forced fumble in 16 games) and defensive end George Kalafatis (35 tackles, team-high 8 sacks in 16 games) are the standouts on the defense.

Despite having a little over 3 weeks off, I think the Chiefs will activate “playoff mode” yet again on Saturday and beat the Texans easily at Arrowhead. Lay the Points…Chiefs 31, Texans 13