NFL Playoff Picks – Texans @ Chiefs

NFL Playoff Picks – Texans @ Chiefs

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs features a compelling matchup between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. This highly anticipated game will take place on Saturday, January 20, 2025, at 4:30 PM ET, broadcast on CBS with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo calling the action. The officiating crew will be led by referee Clay Martin. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite, with a moneyline of -450, while Houston’s moneyline is +370. The total for the game is set at 42.

Historical Context and Head-to-Head Record

The Texans and Chiefs have faced each other 15 times since 2003, with Kansas City leading the series 10-5. Their most recent matchup occurred on December 21, 2024, when the Chiefs secured a 27-19 victory over the Texans. In playoff history, these teams famously met in the 2019 Divisional Round, where Kansas City overcame a 24-point deficit to win 51-31.

Against the Spread (ATS) and Straight Up Performance:

• Kansas City Chiefs:
  • In the 2024 regular season, the Chiefs posted a 7-9-1 record against the spread.
  • Over the past two playoff seasons, they have been dominant ATS, boasting a 13-5 record in their last 18 playoff games.
• Houston Texans:
  • The Texans also recorded a 7-9-1 ATS record during the 2024 regular season.
  • In this year’s playoffs, they are 1-0 ATS following their upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

Head-to-head, the Chiefs have consistently had the upper hand straight up and likely ATS in recent years. Their strong playoff pedigree makes them a formidable opponent.

Key Players and Matchup Analysis

• Kansas City Chiefs:
  • Quarterback Patrick Mahomes continues to be the engine of the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. With over 4,800 passing yards and 38 touchdowns this season, he remains an MVP candidate.
  • Tight end Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite target, especially in critical moments. Expect Kelce to play a significant role in moving the chains against Houston’s defense.
  • Defensive tackle Chris Jones anchors a defense that has excelled at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, a critical factor against Houston’s CJ Stroud.
• Houston Texans:
  • Quarterback CJ Stroud has been exceptional in his rookie season, showcasing poise and precision. He was instrumental in the Texans’ 32-12 Wild Card victory over the Chargers.
  • Running back Joe Mixon provides balance to the offense, capable of grinding out tough yards against a stout Chiefs defensive front.
  • Defensively, the Texans will lean on their secondary, led by standout rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., to contain Kansas City’s passing attack.

Betting Recommendations

• Point Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 10 points. While Kansas City has a strong track record in playoff games, the Texans’ recent form and ability to score may allow them to cover the spread.
• Moneyline: At -450, the Chiefs are heavy favorites. Betting the Texans at +370 offers value if you believe in their upset potential.
• Total Points: The over/under is set at 42. Given the firepower on both sides, the over is an appealing bet, especially if the game becomes a shootout.
• Prop Bets:
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns: Mahomes thrives in playoff settings, and this game should be no different.
  • CJ Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Stroud has shown he can perform under pressure, making this a solid prop bet.
  • Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown: A reliable postseason performer, Kelce is always a good bet to find the end zone.

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Predicted Outcome

The Chiefs’ playoff experience and home-field advantage make them the favorites. However, the Texans’ resilience and talent on both sides of the ball could make this a closer game than anticipated. Final Prediction: Chiefs 30, Texans 23.