Wildcard Playoff Picks – Wrong Team Favored in Houston?

Wildcard Playoff Picks – Wrong Team Favored in Houston?

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The opening round of the NFL playoffs begin with an AFC Wild Card matchup as the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 2nd in AFC West) visit the fourth-seeded Houston Texans (10-7, 1st in AFC South) on Saturday afternoon at NRG Stadium. The game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on CBS. The teams are meeting for the first time since October 2022 when the Chargers picked up a 34-24 win at Houston. The Chargers hold a 6-3 advantage in the head-to-head matchups dating back to 2002 which was Houston’s inaugural season. Los Angeles is a 3-point favorite and the total is 42.5. 

The Los Angeles Chargers ended the regular season with a 34-20 win on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The victory secured the No. 5 seed for the Chargers and prevented an opening round matchup at the surging Baltimore Ravens. Justin Herbert completed 28 of 36 passes for 346 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. He also rushed for 42 yards on four carries. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston set career highs with 13 catches for 186 yards for the Chargers.

The Houston Texans ended the regular season with a 23-14 win at the Tennessee Titans. Houston had nothing to play for in the regular season finale since they had clinched the division crown against Miami on Dec. 15 in Week 15. Quarterback CJ Stroud — who completed all six of his passes for 50 yards and touchdown — and the starters led the Texans to a touchdown on the opening drive and were benched afterwards. Backup running back Dameon Pierce finished with a career-high 176 rushing yards on 19 carries and a touchdown in the win.

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

Prior to this season, the Los Angeles Chargers had spent the previous 10+ seasons boasting talented rosters but producing underwhelming results due to inconsistency and losing close games under head coaches Mike McCoy, Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley. After a disastrous 5-12 finish last year, the Chargers made the decision to hire University of Michigan head coach and former 15-year NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh on Jan. 24, 2024. Harbaugh had just led his alma mater Michigan to a 15-0 record and the National Championship on Jan. 8. He played in the NFL from 1987-2001 and spent the 1999 and 2000 seasons with the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh earned the reputation of being an elite coach who could turnaround struggling teams in college and the NFL. He led turnarounds at four previous stops: University of San Diego (2004-2006), Stanford University (2007-2010), the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014) and the University of Michigan (2015-2023). Harbaugh’s career head coaching record in college is 133-52 (.719) and 51-22-1 (.696) in his four seasons with the San Francisco 49ers.

Jim Harbaugh’s penchant for reviving middling situations has worked again as the Los Angeles Chargers finished with an 11-6 record, which is a five-game improvement over last season. The Chargers 11 wins is their most since 2018 and just their third double-digit win season over the last 15 years. Harbaugh appears to have already changed the culture in Los Angeles in only one season.

On the field, the biggest keys to the Chargers turnaround in 2024 has been the play of star quarterback Justin Herbert (3,870 passing yards, 23 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 65.9% completions in 17 starts), rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (82 catches for a team-leading 1,149 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 16 games), running back J.K. Dobbins (905 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns in 13 games) and second-year wide receiver Quentin Johnson (55 catches for 711 yards, 8 touchdowns in 15 games). The 23-year-old second round pick (No. 34 overall out of Georgia) McConkey set franchise rookie records for catches and yards in a season. 

Wildcard Playoff Picks – Wrong Team Favored in Houston?

After a prolific first two seasons in the NFL that saw Justin Herbert win Offensive Rookie of the Year after throwing for 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions — he’s the only rookie QB in NFL history to throw for 30+ touchdowns — and then 38 touchdowns to 15 interceptions with 5,014 passing yards in year two. Herbert’s numbers took a slight dip over the next two seasons due to injuries and a slew of hard-luck losses. Herbert has thrown for a modest 3,870 yards this season as Jim Harbaugh prefers to win with a punishing ground game and a stout defense but he has turned the ball over just 5 times across 17 games.

The Chargers finished the season with one of the better defenses in the NFL. They gave up the fewest number of points in the NFL this season (301), finished as the 7th ranked defense overall and were 6th in sacks with 46. Pro Bowl safety Derwin James Jr. (93 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 1 fumble recovery in 16 games), cornerback Elijah Molden (75 tackles, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries in 15 games), linebacker Khalil Mack (39 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery in 16 games) and linebacker Tuli Tiupulotu (42 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 17 games) are the standouts on the Chargers defense.

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

At the conclusion of the 2022 season, it appeared as if the Houston Texans really screwed up when they squandered the No. 1 overall pick by winning 2 of their last 3 games to finish 3-13-1. Carolina ended up with first pick in the 2023 NFL draft and selected highly touted Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, while Houston “settled” for Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second pick.  

In a fortuitous turn of events for Houston, C.J. Stroud ended up having a tremendous rookie season while Bryce Young struggled with Carolina. Stroud finished his rookie season throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to 5 interceptions across 15 games. He also led Houston to a 10-7 record — a 7 game improvement over the previous season — and their first AFC South division title since 2018. Stroud was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Houston capped off their fantastic season by routing the Cleveland Browns 45-14 in the Wild Card round. It was their first playoff win since the 2019 season.

Expectations were high coming into the 2024 season for Houston after the great success of last season and the additions of playoff-tested, star veterans Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. The two former pro bowlers were both perennial 1,000-yard producers coming into the season and were expected to solidify an already competent offense and signal a potential ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ theme for the season. 

Unfortunately for Houston, numerous injuries to key players and a slight regression from C.J. Stroud in year two prevented the expected ascension amongst the elite teams in the NFL. Stoud’s touchdown passes (23 to 20) and passing yards (4,108 to 3,727) decreased this year while he’s thrown for seven more interceptions (12). Stefon Diggs (torn ACL in Wk 8) and Tank Dell (torn ACL/dislocated kneecap in Wk 16) both suffered season-ending injuries while Joe Mixon and Nico Collins missed multiple games with injuries. 

Wildcard Playoff Picks – Wrong Team Favored in Houston?

Despite the setbacks, Houston still matched last year’s win total of 10 games and won the AFC South division for a second straight season. They aren’t expected to make a deep playoff run and are an underdog at home in Saturday’s Wild Card game but everyone starts at 0-0 in the playoffs and anything can happen in a ‘win or go home’ scenario. 

Running back Joe Mixon (1,016 rushing yards, 359 receiving yards, 11 rushing touchdowns in 14 games) and wide receiver  Nico Collins (68 catches for 1,006 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 12 games) on offense, along with defensive end Danielle Hunter (46 tackles, team-leading 12 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble in 17 games), star second-year defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (37 tackles, 11 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble in 14 games) and Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (54 tackles, 4 interceptions, 18 passes defended in 17 games) on defense were Houston’s most consistent performers this season. 

THE PICK: TEXANS (+3)

Despite the injuries and uneven play for a lot of the season, I think Houston gives an inspired effort at home on Saturday and wins outright. Take the Points…Texans 24, Chargers 21

Wildcard Playoff Picks – Wrong Team Favored in Houston?