MLB Picks 7/19 – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

MLB Picks 7/19 – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

The second half of the baseball season kicks off tonight with an American League East battle as the Tampa Bay Rays (48-48) visit the New York Yankees (58-40) in the opener of a four-game series. This will be the final meeting between these teams. The AL East combatants have faced each other nine times this season, New York holds a 5-4 series lead. Tampa Bay took two of three from visiting New York the last time they met a little over a week ago. 

Tampa Bay enters the second half of the season on a bit of a roll after winning back-to-back three game series against two of the MLB’s best teams in the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians prior to the All-Star break. After winning 99 games last season, Tampa has been somewhat of a disappointment as they’ve hovered around .500 for the entire first half of the season.

New York ended a topsy-turvy first half of the season on a positive note by taking two of three on the road against first-place Baltimore. They’d lost seven of nine heading into that series and were in danger of having Baltimore create some separation atop the division. New York only trails Baltimore by one game heading into tonight’s game, they are tied with Baltimore in the win column.

Tonight’s starters are Zach Eflin (5-6, 3.99 ERA, 78 strikeouts in 17 starts) for Tampa Bay and reigning Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole (2-1, 5.40 ERA, 26 strikeouts in 8 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Tampa Bay +140,  New York -165

Run Line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-145),   New York -1.5 (+120)

Run Total: over 8 (-115)    under 8 (-105)

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY 

Prior to this season, the Tampa Bay Rays completed its most successful five-year stretch in their 27-year history. They’ve made 5 straight trips to the postseason, set franchise-records for wins in a season in 2021 (100) and 2023 (99), and advanced to the 2020 World Series – the franchise’s second World Series appearance. This season has been a different story for Tampa Bay as they enter the second half of the season with a puzzling 48-48 record. Tampa has not had a losing record since 2017. 

Inconsistent starting pitching, injuries and an indefinite suspension for a young star player are the reasons for Tampa’s average season. Tampa Bay had one of the top pitching staffs in MLB last season as they ranked fifth in ERA (3.86), fourth in strikeouts (1,507) and first in WHIP (1.25). Tampa Bay enters tonight’s game with a 4.20 ERA which ranks 21st in MLB. The regression of Tampa Bay’s pitching has been a glaring weakness for the team.

MLB Picks 7/19 – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

The losses of starters Tyler Glasnow and ace Shane McClanahan are the main factors in the pitching and overall struggles of Tampa Bay this season. Glasnow was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the offseason after compiling a 10-7 record and a 3.53 ERA with Tampa Bay last season. McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery last season and will miss the entire 2024 season. McClanahan was 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 121 strikeouts across 21 starts last season before the injury. 

The indefinite suspension of 23-year-old star shortstop Wander Franco in August 2023 was also a punishing blow for Tampa Bay. Franco was named an All-Star last year at just 22-years-old, but everything went south for him soon after his All-Star appearance as he was accused of having an inappropriate relationship with an underage girl in his Native Dominican Republic. There is a possibility that Franco may never play in the MLB again.

On the field, Tampa Bay is getting excellent production from the trio of third baseman Isaac Paredes (.261, 15 HR, 50 RBI), left fielder Randy Arozarena (.202, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 14 stolen bases) and first baseman Yandy Diaz (.273, 8 HR, 46 RBI). The 25-year-old Paredes was named an All-Star this season for the first time in his career. His 31 homers and 98 RBI last season led the team. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Last year the New York Yankees experienced a rare down season after finishing with an 82-80 record. It was their worst mark since a 76-86 finish back in 1992. They also missed the postseason for the first time since 2016. Constant Injuries for stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nester Cortes and Anthony Rizzo were too much for the Yankees to overcome as the season dragged on. 

New York did not waste any time making changes after their disappointing 2023 season. They acquired 25-year-old superstar Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres via trade shortly after the season. New York gave up five players in exchange for Soto. The three-time All-Star Soto hit a career-high 35 homers for San Diego last season. The Yankees also added left fielder Alex Verdugo and veteran starting pitcher Marcus Stroman in the offseason.

Juan Soto has been exceptional in his debut season wearing the pinstripes. He’s hitting .295 with 23 homers, 66 RBI, 75 runs scored and an MLB-leading 79 walks through 94 games. Soto was red-hot entering the All-Star break as he totaled 8 hits and 2 homers over the last 5 games. Soto started in Tuesday night’s All-Star game. It was his fourth appearance in the mid-season classic.  

MLB Picks 7/19 – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Superstar slugger Aaron Judge is having another spectacular season at the plate. The 2022 AL MVP is batting .306 with 34 homers, 84 RBI, 73 runs scored and 72 walks through 96 games. He leads MLB in homers and RBI. Judge also started in Tuesday night’s All-Star game alongside Juan Soto. It was his seventh All-Star nod. Judge is the betting favorite to take home his second AL MVP award this season.

After getting off to a blistering 51-24 start, New York suffered a mid-June swoon that began with an 8-game stretch where they went 1-7. Injuries to oft-injured slugger Giancarlo Stanton and faulty starting pitching led to the Yankees poor play. Stanton has been on the injured list 8 times over the last 6 seasons, and has not played since June 18 due to a hamstring injury. The loss of Stanton coincided with the Yankees mid-June swoon. Stanton swatted 18 homers across 69 games before the injury. The Yankees are hopeful he can return before the start of August. 

Rookie pitcher Luis Gil struggles also coincided with the Yankees dismal play as he was 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA prior to June 20, and then proceeded to lose 4 straight starts. He went through an 0-3 stretch where he gave up 16 earned runs over 9.2 innings. New York was outscored 34-11 in those 3 starts. Gil has returned to his early season dominant form over his last 2 starts as he’s given up just 2 earned runs and struck out 16 batters.  

THE PICK: YANKEES (Run Line)

The Yankees won 2 of 3 at first-place Baltimore prior to the All-Star break and I think the time off will rejuvenate the team. They also have ace Gerrit Cole on the mound tonight. He’s won 3 straight starts and struck out 21 batters over that span. Take the Yankees on the run line!