MLB Picks 7/12 – Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

MLB Picks 7/12 – Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

The Colorado Rockies (33-61) open a three-game series on the road against the New York Mets (47-45) tonight at Citi Field. The teams are squaring off for the first time this season. They’ll meet again for a three-game set in less than a month at Colorado. The Rockies have won four of the last five games against the Mets. They won two of three in New York last season.

Colorado is coming off an 8-1 loss at Cincinnati yesterday. They finished with just three hits in the loss. One of those hits was a solo homer from first baseman Michael Toglia in the fifth inning. Colorado dropped three of four in their series at Cincinnati. They were outscored by at least six runs in the three losses.

New York blanked the Washington Nationals 7-0 yesterday. David Peterson struck out five batters over six scoreless innings in the win. Left fielder Brandon Nimmo hit a bases-clearing double in the fifth inning that broke open a scoreless game. The win completed a three-game sweep of the Nationals. It was New York’s first shutout win of the season. They were the only team without a shutout this year.

Tonight’s starters are rookie Tanner Gordon (0-1, 7.11 ERA) making his second MLB start for Colorado and Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.43 ERA in 17 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Colorado +198,  New York -240

Run Line: Colorado +1.5 (-104),  New York -1.5 (-115)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-115)   under 8.5 (-105)

GAME STORYLINES: COLORADO

The Colorado Rockies are in the midst of another dreadful season as they enter tonight’s game with the second-worst record in baseball at 33-61. They are currently 22 games out of first place in the National League West. Colorado is headed for a sixth straight losing season and will likely finish last in the division for a third straight year. 

Colorado has been poor in pretty much every aspect – hitting, pitching, fielding – of the game but their pitching has been particularly bad this season. Their 5.55 ERA ranks last in MLB by a wide margin, the 29th ranked team – the Arizona Diamondbacks – have a 4.63 ERA. Colorado also ranks last in strikeouts (613) and WHIP (1.54), and are ranked near the bottom in just about every other statistical pitching category.

MLB Picks 7/12 – Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

Injuries to key players have also played a small part in Colorado’s poor play. The most significant one has been oft-injured first baseman Kris Bryant, he is currently on the 10-day injured list with back and rib injuries. The 32-year-old, four-time All-Star and 2016 NL MVP Bryant has played in just 24 games this season. He has not played since June 2 but began taking full batting practice in recent days and could return after the All-Star break.

Veteran outfielder Charlie Blackmon, catcher Elias Diaz and starting pitcher German Marquez have also missed a lot of games due to injuries. The 37-year-old, four-time All-Star Blackmon has missed 23 games with a hamstring injury. He’s spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. Diaz has missed 29 games; he was Colorado’s lone All-Star last season. Marquez underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, and was placed on the 60-day injured list prior to the season. He’s been making rehab starts at Double-A Hartford and could make his season debut against the Mets on Sunday.

The trio of star shortstop Ezequiel Tovar (.265, 12 HR, 38 RBI), third baseman Ryan McMahon (.272, 14 HR, 45 RBI) and center fielder Brenton Doyle (.277, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 20 steals) have been shining lights in a gloomy season for Colorado. The 22-year-old, second-year star Tovar is coming off an outstanding rookie year where he hit 15 homers and drove in 73 runs. He signed a 7-year, $63.5 extension prior to the season in March. The 26-year-old Doyle is also in his second year and is having a break out season. Doyle has a chance to become the first Rockies player to record a 30-30 season since Larry Walker in 1997.

The 29-year-old Ryan McMahon was named an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. He’s the only player from Colorado to make the All-Star team. McMahon leads Colorado in homers and RBI, and has hit 20 or more homers in four straight full seasons.

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Two years ago, the New York Mets were one of the biggest surprises in baseball when they finished 101-61. It was their most wins since 1988. They entered last season with huge expectations but the season quickly went south which led them to unload key players – Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Tommy Pham and Mark Canha – at the August trade deadline. The Mets finished a disappointing 74-87 last season.

MLB Picks 7/12 – Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

The 2024 season also appeared to be heading nowhere as New York began the year 0-5 with all five losses being at home. They were a season-worst 24-35 on June 3 after a 5-4 loss to Arizona. Since then, New York has gone 23-10 and are now in good position to make the postseason as a Wild Card. The Mets are now 2 games above .500 for the first time since April 24. 

The biggest reason for the Mets turnaround over the past six weeks is timely and clutch hitting from their stars. The power-hitting trio of first baseman Pete Alonso (.243, 18 HR, 49 RBI), left-fielder Brandon Nimmo (.252, 16 HR, 62 RBI) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (.249, 16 HR, 48 RBI, 16 steals) have been red-hot of late and sparked the Mets turnaround. 

The 29-year-old Alonso leads the Mets in homers and was named an All-Star for the fourth time in his career this season. He’s the only Met player to make the All-Star team. Alonso has hit 40 or more homers in 3 of his last 4 full MLB seasons. Lindor is batting .311 with 6 homers, 17 RBI, 11 doubles, 7 steals and 25 runs scored over his last 26 games.

Left fielder Brandon Nimmo has been the hottest of the Mets hitters during their six-week stretch of excellent play. The 31-year-old veteran is having a career season in his 8th full MLB season – all with the Mets. His 62 RBI are just 6 shy of his career-high which he set last season. He’s also 8 homers away from matching his career-high of 24 which he also set last season. Nimmo has driven in an RBI in 5 straight games and also homered in 3 straight games prior to yesterday’s win against Washington. Nimmo has an MLB-best 30 RBI since June 14 and is batting .348 over that span.  

THE PICK: METS (Run Line)

This one is easy, the Mets are hot and the Rockies are the Rockies! Take the Mets on the run line tonight!

MLB Picks 7/12 – Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets