MLB Picks 6/23 – Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Picks 6/23 – Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Tampa Bay Rays (37-40) wrap up a 3-game series on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-39) today at PNC Park. The teams split the first two meetings with Tampa Bay winning the opener 10-3 on Friday night and Pittsburgh picking up a 4-3 victory yesterday. Tampa had won seven in a row against Pittsburgh prior to yesterday’s loss dating back to 2022. Pittsburgh’s last win against Tampa Bay was June 29, 2017 as the interleague combatants did not play each other for four seasons from 2018-2021. The teams only matchup once a year due to being in opposite leagues. 

Tampa Bay outfielder Josh Lowe homered twice and drove in four runs in Friday’s 10-3 win at Pittsburgh, while catcher Ben Rortvedt connected on a three-run homer and collected three hits. This afternoon’s contest concludes a nine-game road for Tampa Bay. They’ve gone 4-4 through the first 8 games against Atlanta, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. 

In yesterday’s 4-3 win, Pittsburgh was powered by the talented, young duo of 22-year-old rookie starting pitcher Jared Jones and 25-year-old shortstop O’Neal Cruz. Jones struck out eight batters and gave up two earned runs over seven innings in picking up his fifth win of the season. Cruz blasted a 445-foot solo home run that landed in the Allegheny River in the bottom of the first inning that tied the game at one. 

Today’s starters are Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.42 ERA, 79 strikeouts in 15 starts) for Tampa Bay and rookie phenom Paul Skenes (4-0, 2.29, 53 strikeouts in 7 starts) for Pittsburgh. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Tampa Bay +136,   Pittsburgh -162

Run Line:     Tampa Bay +1.5 (-152),  Pittsburgh -1.5 (+126)

Run Total:    over 8 (-110)    under 8 (-110)     

             

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

For the past 5 seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays established themselves as one of the best franchises in MLB as they’ve qualified for the playoffs each year. Tampa made it all the way to the World Series in the COVID-shortened 2020 season before falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games. The tremendous success of Tampa Bay in recent years – including a 99-63 finish last year – makes this season’s 37-40 record perplexing. Some reasons for this season’s struggles include inconsistent starting pitching, injuries and a lengthy suspension for a key player. 

Last season, Tampa Bay ranked fifth in ERA (3.86), fourth in strikeouts (1,507) and first in WHIP (1.18). This season Tampa Bay ranks 24th in ERA (4.42) and 19th in WHIP (1.25) as starting pitchers Zach Eflin (3-5 record), Aaron Civale (2-5) and Zack Litton (2-5) have all struggled this season. Eflin, Civale and Litton are the top three pitchers in the Tampa’s starting rotation and have combined for 15 losses. Eflin’s dip in production is glaring when you consider he was 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts last season across 31 starts. He led the team in wins, ERA and strikeouts. 

MLB Picks 6/23 – Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has also suffered from the losses of starters Tyler Glasnow and ace Shane McClanahan. Glasnow was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the offseason after compiling a 10-7 and a 3.53 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2023. The 26-year-old, two-time All-Star McClanhan underwent Tommy John surgery last August and will miss the entire 2024 season. McClanahan was 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 121 strikeouts across 21 starts in 2023 before he went down.

The indefinite suspension of 23-year-old star shortstop Wander Franco in August 2023 was also a damaging loss for Tampa Bay. The talented Franco made his first All-Star appearance at just 22-years-old last year. A few weeks later after that all-star appearance, Franco was placed on administrative leave after he was accused of having an inappropriate relationship with an underage girl in his native Dominican Republic. Franco signed an 11-year, $182 million deal with Tampa Bay in 2021 which puts the team in a precarious spot as it will be difficult for them to part ways with a young player who has superstar potential.

On the field, third baseman Isaac Parades (.283, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 15 doubles), first baseman Yandy Diaz (.265, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 15 doubles) and left fielder Randy Arozarena (.188, 10 HR, 26 RBI) are having good seasons at the plate. Diaz and Arozarena were named All-Stars for the first time in their careers last season. The 25-year-old Parades leads the team in batting average, homers and RBI and will likely make the All-Star for the first time in his career this season. His 31 homers and 98 RBI led the team last season.

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

The Pittsburgh Pirates have finished last in the National League Central in four of the last five seasons. Their last playoff appearance was in 2015, and their last playoff victory was in October 2023 against St. Louis. The franchise has been in desperate need of a boost for years. Pittsburgh received that boost when they landed the No.1 overall pick in the loaded 2023 MLB Draft. 

Pittsburgh selected LSU ace Paul Skenes with the No. 1 overall pick. The 6-foot-6 Skenes was widely considered the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and one of the most hyped draft prospects in the history of the draft. At LSU last season, Skenes compiled a 12-2 record with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts during the regular season. He followed that up by posting a 1.11 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 4 starts as LSU won the College World Series. Skenes was named the College World Series Most Outstanding Player.

MLB Picks 6/23 – Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

After a brief but dominant run with Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate Indianapolis where he posted a 0.99 ERA and a 45:8 KK:BB in 7 starts, Skenes was promoted to the big-league club on May 11. He made his highly-anticipated MLB debut on May 12 at home against the Chicago Cubs. Skenes struck out 7 and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings in picking up a no decision against the Cubs. Skenes second MLB start was also against the Cubs in Chicago on May 17, he struck out 11 over 6 scoreless innings in a 9-3 Pirates victory. He’s been excellent so far in his young career. 

Paul Skenes takes the mound this afternoon with a 4-0 record and a 2.29 ERA along with 53 strikeouts in 7 starts. In his last start against Cincinnati on June 17, the 22-year-old star struck out 7 and gave up 1 earned run over 6 innings in a 4-1 Pirates win. Skenes has struck out at least 7 batters in his last 4 starts. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in Skenes seven starts this year.

In addition to Skenes, Pittsburgh features two very good pitchers in 2023 All-Star Mitch Keller (8-4, 3.11 ERA, 84 K’s in 15 starts) and 22-year-old rookie Jared Jones (5-6, 3.66 ERA, 93 K’s through 15 starts). Keller led the team in wins (13) and ERA (4.21) last season as he was named an All-Star for the first time in his 5-year career. Jones is also a highly productive rookie pitcher much like Skenes. Jones and Skenes are both 22-year-old and have a chance to become a dominant 1-2 top-of-the-rotation duo for the foreseeable future. 

At the plate, the trio of left fielder Bryan Reynolds (.271, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 19 doubles), shortstop O’Neil Cruz (.243, 10 HR, 31 RBI) and veteran Andrew McCutchen (.242, 10 HR, 22 RBI) are the standouts in the Pirates lineup. The 29-year-old Reynolds leads the Pirates in batting average, homers and RBI this season and has been the Pirates best hitter for the last 4 seasons. The 25-year-old Cruz burst onto the scene two years ago when he hit 17 homers in 84 games as a rookie. A fractured ankle early last season limited Cruz to just 9 games in 2023 but he’s returned to form in 2024. 

The 37-year-old, five-time All-Star and former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen was drafted by Pittsburgh in the first round (No. 11 overall) of the 2005 MLB draft and had nine outstanding seasons with the Pirates from 2009-2017 before being traded to San Francisco. He returned to the Pirates last season and has been one of the team’s most productive hitters. He was named the 2013 National League MVP with the Pirates. 

THE PICK: PIRATES (ML)

Paul Skenes has lived up to the enormous expectations placed upon him and looked elite against MLB hitters. The Pirates also play well when Skenes starts, I don’t see why anything would change this afternoon against Tampa Bay. Take the Pirates on the moneyline.

MLB Picks 6/23 – Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates