College Football Picks 10/31: Miami @ North Carolina

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The No. 1 ranked Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 5-0 ACC) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (4-3, 2-2 ACC) on Halloween night in an ACC showdown on ABC. The schools are meeting for the first time since October 2023 when North Carolina outlasted visiting Miami 41-31. The Tar Heels have won five in a row against Miami dating back to 2018. 

Miami is a 14-point favorite and the total is 53.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN WEEK 8

The top-ranked Hurricanes pounded Pittsburgh (5-3) 52-23 at home a week ago. The electrifying duo of quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney amassed big games again for Miami. Mensah passed for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Toney hauled in a school-record 16 receptions. Toney totaled 194 receiving yards and caught 3 of Mensah’s 4 touchdown passes.

Senior running back Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed for 41 yards on 13 carries and scored a rushing touchdown. It was his 33rd rushing touchdown of his career and moved him to the No. 2 spot on Miami’s all-time list behind Stephen McGuire (35). 

During the game, Miami held a 25th anniversary celebration for the 2001 National Championship squad that finished 12-0, dozens of players from the 2001 team were in attendance. The ’01 Hurricanes are considered one of the greatest teams in the history of college football. They produced a record 38 NFL draft picks and 17 first-round draft picks. 

North Carolina suffered a stunning 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse (3-4) at home last week. The Orange had lost four of their previous 5 games heading into last week’s contest at North Carolina. Syracuse trailed by 10 (20-10) heading into the fourth quarter before rallying for the win. With Syracuse trailing 30-23 in overtime, freshman wideout Calvin Russell III caught a 4-yard touchdown pass and then a two-point conversion to give Syracuse the dramatic walk-off win. 

Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. completed 27 of 41 passes for a season-high 271 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions for North Carolina in the loss. Star wide receiver Jordan Shipp also recorded a season-high of 8 catches, along with 102 yards and a touchdown for the Tar Heels. 

The Tar Heels missed the opportunity to exceed last season’s win total (4) after losing to Syracuse last week. 

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Over the last 3 seasons (2024-2026), University of Miami head coach and former standout player Mario Cristobal has resurrected the program to the extraordinary heights it experienced for about a 20-year period from the early 1980’s through the early 2000’s. The last two seasons saw Miami post records of 10-3 in 2024 and 13-3 in 2025. The Hurricanes advanced to the FBS Championship game last season. It was Miami’s first College Football Championship game appearance since the 2002-03 season.

A big key to Miami’s turnaround that began in 2024 was striking gold in the transfer portal with veteran quarterbacks who would compile fantastic seasons at The U. In 2024, Cam Ward arrived from Washington State and proceeded to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy, and ended up being selected first overall in the 2025 NFL draft by the Tennessee Titans. Last year, Carson Beck arrived from Georgia and guided the Hurricanes to 13 wins and a trip to the FBS National Championship game. Beck went on to become a third-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft by the Arizona Cardinals. 

In the offseason, Miami mined the transfer portal again for a quarterback and reeled in what is turning out to be one of the best quarterbacks in the history of their storied program in Darian Mensah. The 6-foot-3 junior was stellar in his first two college seasons at Tulane (2024) and then Duke last year, and he’s been even better at Miami this season.

Through 7 games in 2026, Darian Mensah is off to an astronomical start throwing for 2,171 yards with 22 touchdowns to 1 interception while completing 83.8 percent of his passes. Mensah is 9 touchdown passes away from setting the school record for touchdown passes in a season which was held by Cam Ward (30) in 2024. Mensah is currently second in the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds (+290) behind Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (+120). He projects to be a top 10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. 

All-World sophomore wideout Malachi Toney is Darian Mensah’s tag team partner for an explosive Miami offense that leads the nation in total offense (551.9 yds/g) and points per game (49.1). On the season, Toney has amassed 66 receptions for 952 yards and 11 touchdown receptions across 7 games. He is currently third in the Heisman Trophy odds (+370) right behind his quarterback Mensah. Toney logged a record-setting season as a true freshman last year when he caught 109 passes for a school-record 1,211 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’ll likely be the 2028 Heisman favorite next season and a top five pick in the 2028 NFL draft.

Massive offensive tackle Samson Okunlola has emerged as one of the top linemen in the nation this season as a senior. The 6-foot-6, 360-pound left tackle is projected to be a first-round NFL pick in the 2027 NFL draft, along with Darian Mensah. 

In addition to its exceptional offense, Miami also possesses a strong defense that gives up 15.3 ppg which ranks 13th in the nation and leads the ACC. They rank 21st in the nation in total defense. The foursome of defensive lineman Marquise Lightfoot (22 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 FF this yr), defensive tackle Justin Scott (21 tackles, 1 FR), safety Omar Thornton (25 tackles, 3 sacks) and defensive tackle Armondo Blount (18 tackles, 2.5 sacks) are the standouts on the defense. 

GAME STORYLINES: NORTH CAROLINA

On Dec. 11, 2024, the North Carolina Tar Heels football program stunned the sports world when they hired the revered Bill Belichick as its head coach. The then-72-year-old Belichick cemented himself as arguably the greatest coach in NFL history by winning 6 Super Bowls as the head coach of the New England Patriots and 2 more as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants. 

Bill Belichick spent his entire coaching life in the NFL from 1975-2023, a total of 49 years. Belichick had never coached in college which is why a lot of people were surprised that he took the North Carolina job. It’s believed that Belichick desired another NFL head coaching job, but when none of the 32 teams came calling, he turned to college.

Despite the hoopla and pageantry surrounding Bill Belichick’s arrival in Chapel Hill, his first year as head coach was a disaster on and off the field. On the field, North Carolina suffered a humiliating 48-14 loss to TCU at home in Belichick’s head coaching debut on Sep. 1, 2025. The Tar Heels went on to finish with a poor 4-8 record last year. 

Off the field, Bill Belichick’s debut season as head coach was marred by several off-putting headlines that included the 72-year-old Belichick dating 24-year-old Jordon Hudson, a former college cheerleader and beauty pageant contestant. Hudson reportedly meddled in the everyday operations of the football program which became fodder and comic relief for a number of sports and non-sports outlets.

Early in this season, Bill Belichick lost his General Manager Mike Lombardi on Sept. 3, and his defensive coordinator Steve Belichick — his son — on Sept. 17. Lombardi and the younger Belichick resigned their positions for undisclosed reasons. Multiple outlets reported that those undisclosed reasons involve allegations of sex within the program and drug use. 

The non-football related negativity has now vanished from Bill Belichick and the program as North Carolina is in the midst of a turnaround campaign. At 4-3, North Carolina has already matched its win total from last season (4-8). They began the year with a 15-10 upset win against TCU in Ireland. Their most impressive win was a 21-17 upset at No. 25 Pittsburgh on Oct. 10. It was North Carolina’s first road win against a ranked opponent since Miami in 2020. 

Over his 49 seasons in the NFL, Bill Belichick earned the reputation of being a defensive mastermind as he presided over tremendous defenses with the New York Giants in the 1980’s as a defensive coordinator and the New England Patriots in his 24 seasons as head coach. His defensive acumen has carried over to college. North Carolina’s defense gives up 20.9 ppg which ranks amongst the upper half of the country and the ACC. 

The trio of sophomore defensive lineman Xavier Lewis (39 tackles, 7 sacks in 2026), along with senior linebacker Derek McDonald (71 tackles, 1 FF) and sophomore linebacker Peyton Seelman (63 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 FF) anchor North Carolina’s defense. Lewis’ seven sacks ranks 7th nationally, while McDonald and Seelman are the two leading tacklers in the ACC. 

The offense is led by the foursome of veteran quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (1,531 YDS, 11 TD to 4 INT in 2026), junior wideout Jordan Shipp (team-high 41 REC and 543 YDS, 2 TD), Ohio State transfer tight end Jelani Thurman (391 YDS, team-high 4 TD) and the returning running back duo of sophomore Demon June (245 YDS, team-high 7 TD) and junior Benjamin Hall (team-high 283 YDS).

Prior to landing at North Carolina, Billy Edwards Jr. started at Maryland (2024) and Wisconsin last year, but injuries and inconsistent play hampered him at those stops. It looks like Edwards is now reaching his potential with North Carolina. Jordan Shipp led the Tar Heels in receiving (671 YDS) last year and is on pace to lead the team in receiving again and exceed last year’s production. 

THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA (+14)

This could be a trap game for the top-ranked Hurricanes, who could be looking ahead to next week’s highly-anticipated matchup at No. 5 Notre Dame on Nov. 7. When you factor in Bill Belichick’s 50-year track record of coming up with superior defensive schemes that overwhelm offenses and a sold-out, frenzied Chapel Hill crowd on Halloween night, I expect North Carolina to keep this one fairly close…Miami 34, North Carolina 26