NFL Picks 10/18 – Jets @ Patriots

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Six presents a matchup of long-time, AFC East rivals as the New York Jets (2-3) visit the New England Patriots (3-2) today at Gillette Stadium on CBS. New England manhandled host New York 42-10 when these teams last met in Week 17 of last season. The Patriots have won three in a row against the Jets. The teams will square off for a final time in Week 16 on Dec. 27.

New England is a 7-point favorite and the total is 43.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN WEEK 5

The Jets picked up a 17-12 victory against Cleveland (3-2) at home last Sunday in a rainy, defensive battle. Braelon Allen’s 22-yard touchdown run with 3:01 remaining gave New York a 17-12 lead and ended up being the game-winning score. The Jets sealed the victory when defensive end Will McDonald IV strip-sacked Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson and recovered the fumble on fourth down with 1:41 left in the game. 

New York’s defense was dominant against Cleveland, as they notched 8 sacks and forced 2 fumbles. Standout rookie linebacker David Bailey registered a monster game with 3 sacks and 7 total tackles. 

Braelon Allen rushed for a career-high 116 yards on 24 carries with a rushing touchdown in the win. It was also the first career 100-yard rushing game for the third-year running back. Star wideout Garrett Wilson caught 7 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. Geno Smith completed 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Smith has not thrown an interception through 5 games this season. 

New England clobbered Las Vegas (3-2) 45-17 at home last week. Quarterback Drake Maye accounted for 5 touchdowns — 4 passing and 1 rushing — for New England in the rout. Overall, Maye completed 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and carried the ball 7 times for 25 yards. Maye has 7 touchdowns to 1 interception over his last 2 games.

Second-year wide receiver Kyle Williams led the team with 91 receiving yards and a touchdown. Williams had a total of 44 receiving yards across five games coming into the game, as he was primarily used as a kick returner. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Despite being around for almost 7 decades (established in 1960), the New York Jets have been one of the worst franchises in North American sports. They’ve won just 1 Super Bowl and made only 2 appearances in the AFC Championship Game in their 65-year history prior to this season. 

The New York Jets enter the 2026 season on a 15-year playoff drought, and they’ve registered 10 straight losing seasons. New York’s last playoff game was the 2010-11 AFC Championship game when they lost 24-19 at Pittsburgh in January 2011. Their last winning season was 2015 when they finished 10-6.

New York is hoping head coach and former franchise great Aaron Glenn can turn things around in his second season at the helm, after going 3-14 last year. Glenn spent the first 8 of his 15 NFL seasons with the Jets (1994-2001), where he made 2 Pro Bowls and totaled 24 interceptions.

In order to change the culture of the team, the Jets added a pair of highly-productive veterans in 37-year-old linebacker Demario Davis (36 tackles, 2 sacks this yr) and 29-year-old safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (21 tackles, 1 INT). Both players have compiled tremendous NFL careers and are playing well through 5 games with the Jets.

Demario Davis was drafted by the Jets (3rd round) in 2012 and spent his first four years — along with the 2017 season — with the team, before developing into a disruptive, tackling machine for the New Orleans Saints from 2018-2025. Minkah Fitzpatrick was named First-Team All-Pro three times (2019, 2020, 2022) and selected as a Pro Bowler five times (2019, 2020, 2022-2024) over his first 8 NFL seasons with Miami and Pittsburgh prior to joining the Jets. 

New York also brought back 35-year-old veteran quarterback Geno Smith on a one-year, $3.3 million dollar deal. Smith spent the first 4 years (2013-2016) of his NFL career with the Jets where inconsistency led to the Jets releasing him in 2016. He revived his career with Seattle for three seasons when he got an opportunity to start again in 2022. Smith is off to a good start in his return to New York, passing for 1,084 yards with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions on 69.4 percent completions. 

The Jets appeared to have nailed the NFL draft, for once, in 2026. They’ve been notorious for whiffing on draft picks for their entire 65-year existence. New York owned three 2026 first-round draft picks and selected linebacker David Bailey (2nd overall-Texas Tech), tight end Kenyon Sadiq (16th overall-Oregon) and wide receiver Omari Cooper Jr. (30th overall-Indiana).

David Bailey and Kenyon Sadiq are off to tremendous starts and are on track to become magnificent NFL players. Bailey has 5 sacks and forced a fumble through 5 games. Bailey entered the season as the favorite (+450) to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he’s now at (+200) to capture the award. Sadiq has 14 catches for 146 yards with a touchdown in 5 games.

The Jets returned a talented trio of skill position players in running backs Braelon Allen (236 YDS, 2 TD in 5 gms this yr) and Breece Hall (163 RUSH YDS, 102 REC YDS 1 TD in 3 gms), along with wide receiver Garrett Wilson (374 YDS, 3 TD in 5 gms). The Jets selected Wilson and Hall in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, and they’ve both been excellent players in their 4 seasons with the team.

The 22-year-old Braelon Allen recorded career-highs of 24 carries and 116 yards last week, as he’s now become the primary running back due to Breece Allen missing the last 2 games with a quadriceps injury. Hall will miss Sunday’s game against the Patriots and could be out for a few more weeks. Allen has a chance to establish himself as a lead back while Hall is sidelined. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last year, the New England Patriots made a stunning turnaround, when they increased their win total by 10 games, going from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 a year ago. They went from worst to first in the AFC East division and ended the Buffalo Bills’ five-year reign as division champs. New England earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoffs and parlayed that into a Super Bowl appearance — where they fell to Seattle.

New England’s surprising turnaround last season was sparked by the tremendous improvement of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and first-year head coach/former Patriots great Mike Vrabel. The Patriots selected Maye with the third overall pick (North Carolina) in the 2024 NFL draft. After posting a 15:10 TD:INT as a rookie in 2024, Maye increased that to 31:8 TD:INT last year. Maye finished second in the 2025 NFL MVP voting to Matthew Stafford. 

The 2025 New England Patriots registered their most wins (14) since the 2016 Super Bowl winning season, and they advanced to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2018 season, when they also won the Super Bowl. 

The positive vibes brought on by New England’s great success in 2025 quickly evaporated in the offseason as legal problems for veteran, star wideout Stefon Diggs (team-leading 1,019 YDS in 2025) led the Patriots to release him in March. That was followed by a highly-publicized infidelity scandal involving head coach Mike Vrabel. Vrabel’s infidelity scandal became a leading topic for sports and non-sports outlets for weeks.

The Patriots then acquired talented, but temperamental wide receiver A.J. Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2027 fifth-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick on June 1. The acquisition of Brown was also somewhat of a distracting move in the offseason for the Patriots due to Brown wearing out his welcome in Philadelphia despite topping the 1,000-yard mark in all four years with the Eagles. 

New England’s tumultuous offseason appeared to spill over into the regular season, after they opened the 2026 campaign with a 13-10 loss at Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch, where Drake Maye struggled and A.J. Brown left the game in the third quarter due to a right high-ankle sprain. Things got worse for the Patriots, as Brown would be placed on IR-return, while Maye was awful through the first 3 games.

Drake Maye’s aforementioned struggles through New England’s first three games included him throwing 1 touchdown to 6 interceptions, and losing a fumble. There were questions about whether Maye’s breakthrough campaign last season was a fluke. But Maye really turned things around over the last 2 games — a 29-26 upset win at previously-undefeated Buffalo and a 45-17 thrashing of Las Vegas at home. Maye has thrown for 643 yards with 7 touchdowns to 1 interception, he’s also rushed for a touchdown since his poor start. 

With A.J. Brown missing New England’s last 4 games, Drake Maye has excelled with a wide receiver by committee approach where the wideout trio of Romeo Doubs (219 YD, 2TD in 5 gms), DeMario Douglas (147 YDS, 2 TD) and Efton Chism III (98 YDS, 1 TD) equally contribute from week-to-week, along with steady tight end Hunter Henry (177 YDS, 1 TD). Brown will return to play against the Jets today. We’ll see if Maye feels any pressure to get the ball to Brown. Or if Brown can accept getting lesser targets than he’s accustomed to in his career.

The Patriots boast a very good defense anchored by All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The 24-year-old, shutdown corner quickly established himself as an elite player when the Patriots selected him in the first round (17th overall-Oregon) of the 2023 NFL draft. Gonzalez was rewarded with a 4-year, $135 million contract extension on the eve of the season-opener on Sep. 8. 

THE PICK: PATRIOTS (-7)

Drake Maye and the Patriots are on a roll after a slow start to the season. I expect their excellent play to continue this afternoon against the Jets in Foxborough today. Lay the Points…Patriots 31, Jets 17