MLB Picks 7/3 – Twins @ Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Minnesota Twins (42-46) begin a three-game set on the road against the slumping New York Yankees (48-38) tonight at Yankee Stadium. This will be the first head-to-head matchup of the year between the Twins and Yankees. They’ll face off for a final time in Minnesota beginning on Sept. 14. The teams have split the last four meetings, but New York had won nine in a row prior to Minnesota winning 4-1 at New York last August. 

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

The Twins picked up an 8-3 victory at Houston in their previous game on Wednesday. Starting pitcher Taj Bradley tied a season-high with 11 strikeouts over five innings in the win. Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, and Luke Keaschall each homered for Minnesota. The Twins took two of three from the Astros in the series. They’ve now won three consecutive series on the road. 

New York dropped a 6-2 decision in 11 innings to the Detroit Tigers at home in their last game on Wednesday. A bases-loaded walk to Spencer Torkelson broke the 2-2 tie and ignited Detroit’s four-run 11th inning. Detroit’s next three runs were courtesy of Zach McKinistry’s bases-loaded, two-run single and a throwing error on Yankees catcher Ali Sanchez on the play that allowed the third run to score. 

Detroit swept the Yankees in New York for the first time since 2008.

New York’s seven-game losing skid is their longest since August 2023, when they lost nine in a row. They’ve lost 11 of their last 14 contests.

Tonight’s starting pitchers are rookie Mike Parades (0-1, 4.26 ERA, 13 strikeouts in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances) for Minnesota and Gerrit Cole (2-3, 4.06 ERA, 34 strikeouts in 7 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Minnesota (+153),   New York (-186)

Run Line: Minnesota +1.5 (-126),   New York -1.5 (+105)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-118),   under 9.5 (-102)

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

After posting back-to-back winning seasons in 2023 (87-75) and 2024 (82-80) for the first time since registering three straight from 2008-2010, the Minnesota Twins regressed to 70-92 last season. Poor pitching and a lack of consistent power in the batting lineup outside of star slugger Byron Buxton were the main reasons for Minnesota’s dismal record in 2025. Minnesota’s 4.55 ERA ranked 24th (out of 30 MLB teams) a year ago. 

Minnesota has consistently been among the bottom third in payroll, so acquiring big-name free agents is not part of their plan. Their biggest off-season move was adding power-hitting journeyman Josh Bell. The Twins signed the 33-year-old, one-time All-Star to a 1-year, $7 million deal. Bell has been a consistent source of power as he’s totaled 193 homers across 10 seasons with 6 teams prior to this year.

The 2026 season got off to a promising start for the Minnesota Twins as they stood at 11-7 on April 14. But they would go on to lose nine of their next 10 games to fall to 12-16. And it’s been an uphill struggle for them to get back to .500. They enter tonight’s game at 42-48. Luckily, the AL Central division has been mediocre at best up to this point of the season so the Twins find themselves just 4 games out of first place — behind the Chicago White Sox (45-41) and Cleveland Guardians (46-42) — despite being six games under .500 (42-48). 

Superstar slugger Byron Buxton continues to produce at an elite level for Minnesota in his 12th MLB season — all with the Twins. The 32-year-old, two-time All-Star is batting .268 with 25 homers, 43 RBI, 15 doubles and 7 stolen bases across 73 games. He’s on pace to surpass his career-high home run total of 35, which he totaled last season. Minnesota selected Buxton with the No. 2 overall pick in 2012 out of Appling County High School (GA), and he’s become their franchise player over his 12 seasons with the team.

Byron Buxton missed Minnesota’s last three games due to a right hip impingement that he suffered at Colorado on June 28. He was considered day-to-day after that injury and has not played since, missing Minnesota’s last three games. He is considered questionable for tonight’s game at New York. Buxton’s only setback during his tremendous 12-year career has been injuries. He’s played in 100 or more games only 3 times in 10 full seasons.

The trio of the aforementioned free agent signee Josh Bell (.244, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 17 doubles in 85 gms), third-year shortstop Brooks Lee (.251, 14 HR, 47 RBI in 84 gms) and first baseman Kody Clemens (.241, 14 HR, 38 RBI in 74 gms) are registering very good season alongside Byron Buxton. The 30-year-old Clemens is the son of Hall of Fame pitcher Roger Clemens, and is on pace to surpass his career-highs in homers (19) and RBI (52), which he set last year in his first season with Minnesota. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

After posting back-to-back 94-68 seasons in 2024 and 2025, while All-World slugger Aaron Judge captured back-to-back AL MVPs, the New York Yankees entered the 2026 season with their customary high expectations. The Yankees also welcomed back veteran ace Gerritt Cole to the team after he missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. They also return a star-studded lineup that led MLB in homers (274), runs scored (849), slugging percentage (.455) and ranked second in run differential (+164) last season.

The 2026 season was going according to plan for the Yankees as they opened the season 7-1 and were a season-best 18 games over .500 (45-27) on June 17. The Yankees also had the best record in the American League and occupied first place in the American League East.

But New York’s excellent season hit a snag on June 18, the day after they improved to 45-27. The Yankees dropped the finale of a three-game set to the Chicago White Sox at home and have gone 3-11 ever since. New York is currently on a 7-game losing streak. Their top-rated offense can’t generate runs or hits, while their frontline pitchers are getting shelled. To make matters worse, the surprising Tampa Bay Rays (51-33) have leapfrogged New York (48-38) for first place in the American League East. Tampa Bay is now on an 8-game winning streak, while the Yankees have lost 7 in a row.

Three of New York’s top sluggers — Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton — are all on the 10-day injured list. Judge (rib) has been out since May 31, Grisham (hamstring) has been out since June 12 and the oft-injured Stanton (calf) has been out since April 24. Judge and Stanton are reportedly not close to returning, but Grisham could return as soon as tonight.

Despite the current setback as a team, infielder Ben Rice has emerged as a superstar in his third big-league season. The 27-year-old slugger is batting .269 with 23 homers, 54 RBI, 42 walks and 15 doubles across 81 games. He’ll soon surpass last year’s totals of 26 homers and 65 RBI. 

The trio of veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (.278, 14 HR, 41 RBI in 60 gms), left fielder Cody Bellinger (.254, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 16 doubles, 10 steals in 84 gms) and second baseman Jazz Chisolm Jr. (.225, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 26 steals in 82 gms) are registering excellent seasons. Goldschmidt (2022-Cardinals) and Bellinger (2019-Dodgers) are former MVPs and will need to elevate their games in order for New York to get back on track.

The Yankees still possess a formidable lineup even without the slugging trio of Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton, which makes their abysmal play and lack of scoring somewhat baffling. 

New York’s current struggles are reminiscent of last season where a June swoon that began on June 13, 2025 saw them lose 6 in a row and go 6-16 over the next three weeks. Last year’s June swoon allowed the Toronto Blue Jays to overtake New York for the division lead in the AL East. Toronto never relinquished that lead and won the division by a tiebreaker. The Yankees are in danger of this happening again as Tampa Bay has caught fire and now leads the AL East by 4 games.

THE PICK: TWINS (Moneyline)

New York is in a complete tailspin after getting swept at home by the sub-.500 Detroit Tigers (38-49). I don’t see anything changing tonight with the sub-.500 Twins coming to town. Take Minnesota on the Moneyline tonight!