MLB Picks 6/28 – Yankees @ Red Sox

Two of MLB’s storied franchises and bitter rivals conclude a four-game series tonight as the New York Yankees (48-34) visit the Boston Red Sox (35-46) tonight at Fenway Park on NBC. Boston will look to complete a four-game sweep of their long-time rivals from New York. The Red Sox picked up a 4-1 victory yesterday as rookie southpaw Jake Bennett struck out three and gave up one earned run over 6.1 innings. New York has scored a total of five runs over the first three games of the series.

If Boston wins tonight, it will be their first four-game sweep of the Yankees since Aug 2-5, 2018 at Fenway Park.

This is the ninth head-to-head matchup and third series meeting between the long-time American League East rivals. The season series is tied at 4-4. After tonight’s game, the Yankees and Red Sox will face off once more in the regular season at Yankee Stadium for a four-game set beginning on Aug. 28.

Tonight’s starting pitchers are Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA, 46 strikeouts in 8 starts) for New York and veteran star Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA, 66 strikeouts in 14 starts) for Boston.

Moneyline: New York (-101),   Boston (-120)

Run Line: New York -1.5 (+167),   Boston +1.5 (-204)

Run Total: over 8 (+105),   under 8 (-125)

Over the last two seasons, the powerhouse New York Yankees posted back-to-back records of 94-68 while Aaron Judge took home back-to-back American League MVPs. Judge became the first player to capture back-to-back AL MVPs since Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. Despite finishing with identical 94-68 records, the 2024 season ended with a trip to the World Series, while the 2025 season ended with a divisional (second) round loss to division-winning Toronto.

New York did not make any drastic changes in the offseason even though they came up well short of advancing to the World Series. New York’s biggest transactions included re-signing star outfielder Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162.5 million deal and welcoming back veteran ace Gerrit Cole — who missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. Cole was the winningest pitcher in MLB from 2019-2024 — totaling 79 wins — before missing the entire 2025 season.

The 2026 is turning out to be a mixed bag for the Yankees. They have sported the best record in the American League and were atop the American League East for the overwhelming majority of the season up to this point. But prolonged injuries for star sluggers Aaron Judge (.248, 17 HR, 38 RBI in 59 gms this year), Trent Grisham (.232, 8 HR, 35 RBI in 66 gms) and Giancarlo Stanton (.256, 3 HR, 14 RBI in 24 gms), along with dropping the first three games to Boston at Fenway Park now has the Yankees percentage points behind first-place Tampa Bay (47-33) in the AL East.

New York could find themselves in a similar position as last season where they finish with top record in the American League, but end up dropping to the No. 4 seed in the playoffs because they finish second to a team with the same amount of wins due to a tiebreaker. Last year it was Toronto, and this year it could be Tampa Bay.

To make matters worse for the Yankees, everyone other team in the American League has been hovering around the .500 mark or is well below it. There is a small margin of error for the Yankees because they’ll likely be in a season-long battle with Tampa Bay to win the division.

A possible bad omen for New York is a terrible June series in Boston last season (June 13-15, 2025) where they suffered a three-game sweep ignited a six-game losing streak and a dismal three-week stretch where the Yankees went 6-16 and were overtaken by Toronto for the division lead. We’ll see if history repeats itself for the Yankees in 2026.

Despite the struggles as a team in Boston over the past 3 days and injuries to key players, first baseman Ben Rice has emerged as a superstar in year three with the Yankees. The 27-year-old slugger is batting .276 with 22 homers, 53 RBI and 15 doubles across 77 games. Rice leads the team in batting average, homers and RBI. He’s just 5 homers and 13 RBI from exceeding last season’s total of 26 homers and 65 RBI.

With Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton all expected to be out for at least the next couple of weeks, the Yankees will likely need a power surge from its newest superstar Ben Rice to stay afloat and avoid the mid-summer swoon they had last season which likely cost them the division.

Last season, the Boston Red Sox finished 89-73 and made the postseason for the first time since 2021. Prior to making the playoffs in 2025, the Red Sox experienced three straight non-winning full seasons for the first time since 1966. The catalyst for last year’s turnaround could be considered addition by subtraction as Boston traded disgruntled superstar slugger Rafael Devers — who refused to play first base — to the San Francisco Giants on Jun. 15, 2025.

Boston was 37-36 with Rafael Devers and finished the season 52-37 without him.

The Red Sox acquiring superstar pitcher Garrett Crochet in a December 2024 trade from the fledgling Chicago White Sox prior to last season also factored into the 2025 turnaround. Crochet immediately established himself as Boston’s ace in his debut with the Red Sox by finishing 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 255:46 K:BB across 32 starts. Crochet’s 255 strikeouts led MLB last year.

Prior to this season, Boston acquired two established veterans from the St. Louis Cardinals to bolster their roster. They landed power-hitting first baseman Willson Contreras in a trade with the Cardinals to add more firepower to its lineup. The 34-year-old, 10-year veteran registered 20 or more homers in six of his eight full big-league seasons since making his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2016. They also traded for veteran pitcher Sonny Gray. The 36-year-old, three-time All-Star amassed 125 wins over 13 MLB seasons prior to joining Boston

Boston entered the 2026 season with high expectations due to the return of superstar ace Garrett Crochet, along with the additions of veterans Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray. Boston began the year on a high note defeating the Cincinnati Reds on the road 3-0 on Opening Day as Crochet delivered a masterpiece striking out 8 batters over six scoreless innings, but it’s been all downhill ever since.

The Red Sox went on to lose the next 2 games at Cincinnati and followed that up by suffering a three-game sweep at Houston. The Astros outscored Boston 23-7 in that three-game sweep. Boston went on to lose 2 of 3 at home to San Diego in their first homestand of the year which put them at 2-7 to start the year. Ace Garrett Crochet struggled in three of his next five starts after his brilliant opening-day start at Cincinnati. He gave up 15 earned runs across back-to-back starts at Minnesota and against Detroit on Apr. 13 and Apr. 19.

Things went from bad to worse for Boston towards the end of April when ace Garrett Crochet experienced left shoulder fatigue after a start at Baltimore on Apr. 25. He was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and placed on the 15-day injured list on Apr. 29. The injury was thought to be minor but ended up being a lot worse. Crochet was eventually placed on the 60-day injured list and has not pitched since Apr. 25. There is no timetable for when Crochet will return.

One of the few bright spots for Boston this year has been the play of the aforementioned veterans from the St. Louis Cardinals, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray. The 34-year-old Contreras is in the midst of what could be a career year. He’s batting .281 with 17 homers and 50 RBI. He leads Boston in all three categories. Due to Boston’s poor record, there is speculation that Contreras could be dealt to a contender by the trade deadline on Aug. 3.

Tonight’s starter Sonny Gray takes the mound tonight with a 9-1 record, a 2.95 ERA and 66:20 K:BB across 14 starts. He’s coming off a season-best 11 strikeouts in his last start at Colorado on Jun. 23. It’s also been rumored that Gray could be traded to a contender.

It looks like the injuries to Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton have caught up to the Yankees as they’ve struggled offensively at Fenway Park over the last 3 days. I don’t think things will get any better tonight when they face red-hot Sonny Gray. Take the Red Sox on the Moneyline!