NBA Finals Picks – Knicks @ Spurs

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA Finals begin tonight with the Eastern Conference champion New York Knicks (53-29 in the regular season) visiting the Western Conference champion San Antonio Spurs (62-20) in Game One at Frost Bank Center on ABC. The teams faced off three times in the regular season with New York winning twice. New York defeated San Antonio 124-113 in the championship game of the NBA Emirates Cup in-season tournament on Dec. 16 in Las Vegas, and routed San Antonio 114-89 at home on March 1. San Antonio rallied for a 134-132 victory in their lone regular-season win against the Knicks on Dec. 31. The Spurs overcame a 19-point, third-quarter deficit (71-52) to win it. 

New York is in the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 when they lost to San Antonio 4-1. The Knicks will be seeking the franchise’s first NBA crown since 1973 (53 years). San Antonio is in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014 when they dispatched of the Miami Heat 4-1 to capture the franchise’s fifth NBA crown. 

This will be the second postseason meeting between the teams. San Antonio defeated New York 4-1 in the 1999 NBA Finals and claimed the franchise’s first-ever NBA title. San Antonio went on to win four more championships in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2014. New York entered the 1999 NBA Finals as the eighth seed — becoming the first No. 8 seed to advance to the NBA Finals.

New York and San Antonio appear to be a lot more evenly match this time around in 2026 versus 1999 when the eighth-seeded Knicks were considered a long-shot to knock off San Antonio, who finished with the NBA’s best record at 37-13 during the strike-shortened 1998-99 season.

San Antonio is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is 218.5 in tonight’s contest. The Spurs are a (-190) favorite to win the series. New York is (+158) to win the series.

HOW BOTH TEAMS ADVANCED TO THE NBA FINALS: NEW YORK

After advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals last year for the first time since 1999, the New York Knicks entered the 2025-26 season with high expectations. They met those expectations by finishing with two more wins (53-29) in the regular season and securing the third-seed in the playoffs for a second straight year.

New York’s playoff journey began against the upstart and sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks found themselves trailing 2-1 after a pair of one-point losses (107-106 in Gm2 and 109-108 in Gm3), where they looked sloppy in the final minute of both games. Speculation began to arise about head coach Mike Brown being fired and a roster overhaul if New York were to be eliminated in the first round by Atlanta.

From the moment New York fell behind 2-1 to Atlanta on April 23, they’ve gone on an unprecedented and historic run, which resulted in a trip to the NBA Finals. New York won the final three games against Atlanta by scores of 114-98 in Game 4, 126-97 in Game 5 and closed with a 140-89 shellacking in Game 6 to finish off the Hawks. New York led by 47-points (83-36) at the half against Atlanta in Game 6, which set an NBA postseason record. 

The Knicks went on to sweep the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers — who overcame a 3-1 deficit to knock off the Eastern Conference-favored Boston Celtics in the first round — in the second round. Two of New York’s wins against the 76ers were by margins of 39 points (137-98) in Game 1 and 30 points (144-114) in Game 4. 

New York’s onslaught continued in the Eastern Conference Finals against the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers — who upset the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the East semis. After trailing by 22 points (93-71) with 7:40 remaining in regulation of Game 1 against Cleveland, New York closed the fourth quarter and overtime on a 44-11 run to win 115-104. 

After their stunning comeback to win Game 1, New York barely broke a sweat for the rest of the series, winning the final 3 games by scores of 109-93, 121-108, and 130-93.  

New York’s 11-game postseason winning streak has set a franchise record, and their plus-262 scoring margin during the 11 games is the highest margin of any team over an 11-game stretch in NBA postseason history.

HOW BOTH TEAMS ADVANCED TO THE NBA FINALS: SAN ANTONIO

When the San Antonio Spurs successfully tanked the 2022-2023 to land the No. 1 overall pick and select 7-foot-4 phenom Victor Wembanyama — one of the most ballyhooed prospects in NBA draft history — many projected instant superstardom for Wembanyama and an immediate return to championship status for San Antonio.

Over Victor Wembanyama’s first two seasons in the NBA, only half of those lofty expectations came to fruition as Wembanayma achieved excellent individual success, he was named the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year and was selected as an All-Star in year two. But San Antonio registered lackluster records of 22-60 in Wembanyama’s rookie year and 34-48 in his second year. 

All the grandiose projections and expectations for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have been fulfilled this season as Wembanyama played at an MVP level in year three and the Spurs finished with the second-best record in the regular season at 62-20. San Antonio’s 62 wins was a 28-game improvement over last season and their highest win total since the 2015-16 season (67-15). 

The Spurs opening the season with a 125-92 rout of the Dallas Mavericks on the road immediately established that they would no longer be pushovers. They went on to defeat the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder three times in December, which elevated them to an elite status that they maintained for the entire regular season and postseason.

San Antonio and Oklahoma City were on a collision course to meet in the Western Conference Finals since December, and that’s how things played out as both teams romped through the first two round of the Western Conference playoffs. The first two rounds of the playoffs saw the Thunder sweep Phoenix and the Lakers, while San Antonio went a combined 8-3 against Portland and Minnesota. San Antonio’s three playoff losses occurred when Victor Wembanyama did not play or did not finish the game. 

The highly-anticipated Western Conference Finals matchup between the NBA’s top two teams lived up to the hype as the hard-fought series went the full seven games. San Antonio ended up outlasting the defending champion Thunder 111-103 in Game 7 on the road to advance to the NBA Finals. The 22-year-old Victor Wembanyama was overcome with emotion on the court when the final buzzer sounded as he had just led the Spurs to the NBA Finals in his first playoff appearance.

If San Antonio defeats New York and Victor Wembanyama is named the Finals Most Valuable Player, he’ll join Bill Walton (1977) and Magic Johnson (1980) as the only players to be named Finals MVP in their first postseason appearance.

NBA FINALS STORYLINES

Can the Knicks continue their torrid pace against a team the 62-win Spurs? The Knicks have been a juggernaut since falling behind 2-1 to the sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the opening round. They’ve won 11 straight games by an average of 23.8 points. New York’s last loss occurred 41 days ago on April 23. But the teams New York beat (6th-seeded Atlanta, 7th-seeded Philadelphia, 4th seeded Cleveland) en route to the finals were seeded fourth or lower. 

New York was dealt a tough blow when backup center Mitchell Robinson broke his pinky finger six days ago on May 29. He underwent surgery shortly thereafter. Robinson is expected to play with a protective brace on his hand against San Antonio. A limited or inactive Robinson could really hamper the Knicks because of the dominance of Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama manhandling Oklahoma City’s frontcourt players — specifically 7-foot All-Star Chet Holmgren — for the overwhelming majority of the series was the main reason San Antonio eliminated the defending champs. 

Prior to the playoffs, San Antonio’s lack of postseason experience was considered their only weakness. Those concerns were put to rest when they vanquished the defending champion Thunder. There was also the belief that San Antonio and Oklahoma City were clearly the best teams in the NBA all year, and the winner would easily defeat the Eastern Conference representative. We’ll see if this notion holds true starting tonight.

Are the Knicks on the same level as San Antonio? Or did they benefit from playing in the weaker conference? 

THE PICK: SPURS (-4.5)

The Knicks enter Game One of the NBA Finals on a historic pace, winning 11 straight games by an average of 23.8 points. But San Antonio and Victor Wembanyama are a completely different beast than what New York saw in Atlanta, Philadelphia and Cleveland. Lay the Points and take the Spurs tonight!