NBA Playoff Picks 5/26 – Thunder @ Timberwolves

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Finals continue tonight with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder visiting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in Game Four on ESPN. Minnesota will look to even the series after clobbering the Thunder 143-101 in Game Three at home on Saturday night. Oklahoma City is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 219. 

SERIES RECAP: GAMES 1 & 2 at OKC

The opening game of the Western Conference finals took place on May 20, with both teams having contrasting amounts of rest prior to the game. The sixth-seeded Timberwolves needed just five games to dispatch of the undermanned Golden State Warriors in the second round. Minnesota’s series-clinching 121-110 win occurred on May 14. Meanwhile, top-seeded Oklahoma City needed the full seven games to outlast the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder had just one day off between Game Seven against Denver and the opener of this series.

Despite having just one day off before Game One, Oklahoma City routed Minnesota 114-88 at home in the opener. It appeared as if the quick turnaround affected Oklahoma City initially as Minnesota jumped out to an 8-0 lead in the first few minutes of the game, and held a 48-40 lead late in the second quarter. Oklahoma City pulled to within 48-44 at the half.

Oklahoma City dominated Minnesota in the second half, and resembled the powerhouse 68-win team that they were during the regular season. The Thunder went on a 10-0 run midway through the third quarter to take a 66-60 lead. They went on to outscore the Timberwolves 32-18 in the third quarter, and 70-40 over the entire second half to win going away. 

Julius Randle led Minnesota with 28 points (9-13 FG, 5-6 3Pt, 5-6 FT), 8 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 steal over 36 minutes in the Game 1 loss. Anthony Edwards finished with 18 points 5-13 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 5-7 FT), 9 rebounds, 3 assists and a block in  37 minutes. Edwards’ 18 points was 8 below his playoff average of 26.5 points per game. Randle and Edwards were the only two Minnesota players to score in double figures.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with a game-high 31 points (10-27 FG, 0-4 FT, 11-14 FT), along with 9 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steals over 38 minutes for Oklahoma City. It was his fourth straight playoff game with at least 30 points. Jalen Williams added 19 points (7-18 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 4-4 FT), 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals in 33 minutes. Chet Holmgren notched 15 points (6-9 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 2-4 FT), 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and a steal in 26 minutes.

Moments before Game Two began, NBA commissioner Adam Silver presented the 2025 NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award Trophy to Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at center court. The 26-year-old superstar received 71 of 90 first-place votes for MVP. Denver’s Nikola Jokic garnered the other 19 first-place votes and finished second. Gilgeous-Alexander is the third Thunder player to win the award, joining Kevin Durant (2014) and Russell Westbrook (2016).

After the pre-game MVP festivities for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander concluded, Game Two started and had a similar theme to the series opener as Oklahoma City used a dominant third quarter to blow the game open in their 118-103 win. The teams played a relatively even first half with Oklahoma City surging ahead 58-50 at the intermission after Gilgeous-Alexander scored the final 5 points of the half in the closing seconds. 

Oklahoma City broke the game open with about 5 minutes remaining in the third quarter when they went on a 23-5 run that turned a 70-64 lead into a 93-69 rout with 26 seconds left in the third frame. The Thunder led 93-71 heading into the fourth quarter and were never threatened afterwards. Six of Oklahoma City’s ten postseason wins have been by double digits.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander was the game’s highest scorer for a second straight contest finishing with 38 points (12-21 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 13-15 FT), along with 8 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 steals over 42 minutes. Alexander’s 38 points matched his postseason high, which he had in the Thunder’s Game 4 series-clinching win at Memphis on April 26. Jalen Williams (26) and Chet Holmgren (22) each had at least 20. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 32 points (12-26 FG, 1-9 3Pt, 7-10 FT) in the loss. 

GAME 3 RECAP AT MINNESOTA

The Conference Finals switched venues to Minnesota for Game Three on Saturday night with the Timberwolves looking to avoid going down 3-0 in the conference finals for a second straight year. They lost the first three games against Dallas in last year’s Western Conference finals. Returning home gave Minnesota a huge boost as they clobbered Oklahoma City 143-101 in Game 3. 

Minnesota jumped on Oklahoma City from the opening tip, limiting the Thunder to just 9 points through the first 9 minutes of the first quarter. The Timberwolves led 34-14 after one. Oklahoma City only made four field goals in the entire first quarter. Minnesota’s onslaught continued in the second quarter as their lead ballooned to 68-33 late with 1:43 left in the half. Minnesota led 72-41 at the intermission, and the game was never competitive in the second half.

Anthony Edwards scored 30 points (12-17 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 1-2 FT) in 30 minutes to lead Minnesota. Julius Randle added 24 points (9-15 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT) across 30 minutes. Rudy Gobert notched 7 points (3-6 FG, 1-2 FT), 7 rebounds, 2 steals and a block over 26 minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and seldom-used reserve Ajay Mitchell each scored 14 to lead Oklahoma City. 

STARS OF THE SERIES

For Oklahoma City, the just-named MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.7 points, 7.7 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 2 steals on 42.6 percent from the floor. His scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage are down slightly in this series, but that’s to be expected as Minnesota is one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City’s second All-Star Jalen Williams is averaging 19.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1.7 threes on 46.8 percent shooting from the floor and 38.5 percent shooting from long distance. 

For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards is averaging 26.7 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 threes on 51.8 percent shooting from the floor. Julius Randle is averaging 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3 assists and 2.3 threes on 51.3 percent shooting from the floor and 50 percent shooting from long distance. Randle’s emergence as an elite ‘Number Two’ alongside Edwards in the postseason has been a big reason for Minnesota’s magnificent run to the conference finals. 

THE PICK: TIMBERWOLVES (+3.5)

I think the wrong team may be the favorite here. Oklahoma City lost by 42 points in Game Three at Minnesota and they’ve been a somewhat underwhelming team on the road throughout the playoffs. The Thunder lost twice at Denver in the conference semis and struggled to beat eighth-seeded Memphis in Games 3 and 4 on the road in the first round. I expect the Timberwolves to deliver another inspired effort in front of a frenzied home crowd tonight, and keep this one close or possibly win outright. Take the Points and the Timberwolves!

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