NBA Playoff Picks 5/20 – Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Finals begin tonight with the No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game One on ESPN. Minnesota enters tonight’s series opener with six days off after dispatching of the Golden State Warriors in five games on May 14. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City needed the full seven games to eliminate the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder routed Denver 125-93 in Game Seven just two days ago at home.

Minnesota and Oklahoma City split four regular season matchups with each team winning once on the road. The last time these teams faced off on Feb. 24, Minnesota rallied from a 25-point deficit in the second half to pick up a 131-128 overtime win at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is a 7.5-point favorite and the total is 216.

The franchises are squaring off for the second time in the postseason. The first meeting took place in the opening round of the 1998 playoffs when the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise was located in Seattle and known as the Seattle Supersonics. The second-seeded Supersonics outlasted the seventh-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves 3-2 in a best-of-five, first-round series. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: MINNESOTA

After parting ways with Hall of Famer and franchise icon Kevin Garnett in July 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves became one of the NBA’s worst franchises over the next 15 seasons. Through all the misery post-Kevin Garnett, the Timberwolves landed the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 and 2020. They selected Karl-Anthony Towns (2015) and Anthony Edwards (2020) with those picks. Both guys immediately became All-Star caliber players which reversed Minnesota’s moribund existence.

The duo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards transformed Minnesota into a formidable team in their second year playing together (2021-22). Minnesota finished 46-36 — a 23-game improvement over the previous season — and secured the No. 7 seed in the 2022 playoffs. After falling to the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in a hard-fought, first-round series, Minnesota traded for three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert during the offseason.

The addition of Rudy Gobert, along with the continued excellence of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards ultimately led to a 56-26 regular season finish last season. Minnesota’s 56 wins was their most since the 2003-04 season when they won a franchise-record 58 games with NBA MVP Kevin Garnett. Minnesota also advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season for the first time since 2004.

It appeared as if Minnesota was primed to be a championship contender in 2025 led by the trio of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. But a few weeks before the season started, Minnesota stunned the NBA world by dealing Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in a blockbuster trade on Oct. 2. They received a package that featured Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a future first-round pick from New York. 

Minnesota’s decision to trade four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns was puzzling when you consider they were coming off their most successful season in 20 years. It was rumored that ownership was not thrilled with Towns’ 4-year, $220 million max extension that was set to begin during the 2024-25 season. Minnesota’s brass believed that the money paid to Towns could be used on adding ancillary pieces to improve the team. 

Trading Karl-Anthony Towns appeared to be a big mistake for a large portion of the season as Minnesota stood at just 22-21 on Jan. 22. The Timberwolves quickly righted the ship as they finished the year 27-12 and ended up with a 49-33 record, securing the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They won 8 of their last 9 regular season games. 

Minnesota’s excellent play continued into the playoffs as they pummeled the LeBron James and Luka Doncic-led Los Angeles Lakers 4-1 in the first round. The Timberwolves opened that series with an emphatic 117-95 victory in Game 1 at Los Angeles, which foreshadowed how things would go for the Lakers in the first round.

Minnesota then went on to topple the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors 4-1 in the Western Conference semis. Minnesota dropped Game 1 at home against Golden State but went on to win the next four games. Their four straight wins may have been aided by a hamstring injury suffered by Golden State superstar Steph Curry. The 37-year-old Curry suffered the injury in Golden State’s Game 1 victory and was unable to play the next four games, which all ended up being losses for the Warriors. 

The combination of Anthony Edwards (26.5 pts, 8 rebs, 5.9 asts, 1.5 stls, 3.5 threes, 44.5% from 2, 38.5% from 3 in 10 games) and Julius Randle (23.9 pts, 5.9 rebs, 5.9 asts, 1.9 threes, 50.9% from 2 in 10 games) has been tremendous for Minnesota over the first two rounds, as they’ve led the team to an 8-2 playoff record. Randle’s prolific postseason performance stands out as he was often maligned for coming up short in two playoff appearances with the Knicks. He averaged 18.7 ppg during the regular season, but has scored at least 20 in eight of Minnesota’s ten playoff games.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Behind the evolution and stellar play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and multiple years of impeccable drafting, the Oklahoma City quickly transitioned from a bottom-feeder to arguably the NBA’s best team in just 3 seasons. During the 2021 and 2022 NBA drafts, the Thunder selected Josh Giddy, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams. Gilgeous-Alexander elevated his game to All-NBA status when these draft picks became his teammates, as he began to average 30 points per game during the 2022-23 season.

The immense production of superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with the contributions from the 2021 and 2022 draftees, led to a stunning two-year turnaround. Oklahoma CIty went from a 24-58 record in 2022 to a Western Conference-best 57-25 two seasons later in 2024. The top-seeded Thunder lost to the fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks 4-2 in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, but the seeds were planted, and the future was bright for the young Thunder.

Everything came together for Oklahoma City in 2024-25, as they finished with the best record in the NBA at 68-14. The 68 wins broke the franchise-record set by the 1995-96 Seattle Supersonics, who finished 64-18 and advanced to the 1996 NBA Finals. Oklahoma City has also advanced to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged career-highs of 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 1 block, and 2.1 threes while playing in a career-best 76 games this year. The 26-year-old superstar is the frontrunner to take home the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award. Jalen Williams emerging as an elite player this year was also key in Oklahoma City’s marvelous season. The 24-year-old, third-year forward averaged career-highs of 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks across 69 games. Williams was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his young career this season.

Oklahoma City entered the postseason as the No. 1 seed for a second straight season, and they completed a four-game sweep of the No. 8 seed for a second straight season. The Memphis Grizzlies were the victims this year. Despite the uneventful nature of a four-game sweep, the series did provide two historic occurrences. In Game One, Oklahoma City destroyed Memphis 131-80. The 51-point victory was the fifth-largest margin in NBA postseason history. Game Three saw Oklahoma City overcome a 29-point, first-half deficit — they trailed 69-40 with 2:31 left in the 2nd quarter — to win 114-108 at Memphis. 

The Thunder had a lot tougher time in the conference semis, as the Denver Nuggets pushed them to seven games. Oklahoma City routed Denver 125-93 in Game Seven at home to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder fell behind by 11 (21-10) in the first quarter and cut the deficit to 26-21 by the end of the quarter. They proceeded to outscore Denver 39-20 in the second quarter and never looked back. 

In a battle of the top two MVP candidates, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander outscored Nikola Jokic 35-20 in Game 7, which will likely boost his MVP case in terms of public opinion. Gilgeous-Alexander has kept up his MVP-level of play in the postseason by averaging 29 points, 6.4 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 threes on 47.8 percent shooting from the floor in 11 games.

 

THE PICK: TIMBERWOLVES (+7.5)

I think the 6-day layoff will really benefit Minnesota in Game One against an Oklahoma City team that just wrapped up a hard-fought, 7-game series against Denver two days ago. I expect the Timberwolves will keep this close and possibly pull the upset tonight. Take the Points and the Timberwolves!